The WNBA best bets today come from a two-game Saturday, August 29, and the honest headline is that the market only left value in one place: the counting stats of teams that can no longer run offense. Chicago visits New York at 1:00 p.m. ET missing DiJonai Carrington, Skylar Diggins, and Rickea Jackson, Toronto visits Phoenix at 10:00 p.m. ET on the second night of a road back-to-back, and every one of the five props that cleared our de-vig is an Under, with the two widest edges both on assists. The widest edge on the board pays plus money on Jonquel Jones staying under 2.5 assists, a side the market itself already favors, and I want to walk you through why a line below her season average is still the right Under. There is also a promise to keep: Friday's edition parked a 4.3% Saturday row on Jones's threes and said this morning's capture would tell us whether it survived the afternoon. It did not, and what happened to it is the best argument on this page for how to treat the two Sunday rows sitting at the bottom of today's board.
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The Quick Answer
The best WNBA bet today is Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 assists at +105 on HardRock, a 5.5% edge against our de-vigged fair price of -106, in the Sky-Liberty game at 1:00 p.m. ET. Laura Juskaite Under 2.5 assists at -150 on Fanatics (fair -172, 5.4%) in tonight's Tempo-Mercury game is right behind it. Five props cleared across two games, all Unders, our capture returned only player-prop rows with no game-line value, and two Sunday rows on Courtney Williams are parked at the bottom. The full graded board, the fate of Friday's 4.3% early row, and the reason the assists markets are where the value lives are all below.
Odds captured 2026-08-29 at 14:21 UTC (10:21 a.m. ET). Every fair price in this piece is our own de-vigged number, which strips the vig from both sides of a market so you can see what a bet is worth before the book's margin gets in the way. Friday's edition led with Isabelle Harrison Under 7.5 rebounds pending her injury status; she played 24 minutes, pulled exactly 7 boards, and the bet cashed by half a rebound. Grading in public cuts both ways, and today it happens to cut our way.
The Lead: Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 Assists
The early game is the 15-24 Chicago Sky at the 23-16 New York Liberty, 1:00 p.m. ET at Barclays Center, and the availability sheets shape everything that follows.
The two reports, in one block:
- Chicago: DiJonai Carrington (foot) out, Skylar Diggins (knee) out, Rickea Jackson done for the season after knee surgery, and Natasha Cloud a game-time call on her right knee.
- New York: one name, and it is the one that powers today's lead: Satou Sabally remains out with a concussion.
- The Frame: the Liberty are 13-6 at home, the Sky are 5-14 on the road, and the market makes New York a heavy favorite in a 1:00 p.m. start, which puts fourth-quarter minutes for every starter on both sides in doubt before the ball goes up.
Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 assists, +105 (HardRock), fair -106, 5.5% edge. Start with the objection, because it is sitting right in her season line: Jones averages 2.7 assists in 28.7 minutes, so this line lives below her own rate, and betting an Under there usually means paying a premium. Here is what the market knows. Sabally is out today, and Jones's last five games already show the shift regardless; her offense has tilted almost entirely toward her own shot: zero assists in 26 minutes in Thursday's 79-60 loss to Golden State, a night she went 4-of-6 from three, one assist against Indiana on August 22, and under 2.5 in four of her last five appearances, one of them a six-minute night against this same Chicago team. The two full recent games, zero assists in 26 minutes and one against Indiana, carry the argument. She is the finisher in this offense, not the hub; the creation runs through the backcourt, and Jones's touches end in shots. The de-vigged consensus agrees, making the Under a 51.5% proposition, a -106 fair price, and HardRock is paying +105 on it anyway. Plus money on the side the full market already favors is the definition of the overlay this column exists to find. The blowout branch helps too: if New York runs a shorthanded Sky team off the floor by the fourth, Jones's afternoon ends early and the assist chances end with her. The risk branch is a competitive game where Chicago collapses the paint on her and she kicks out all afternoon; that is the 48.5% you are being paid to carry. One small ticket at +105 or better.
The Rest Of Sky-Liberty: Three Rows, One Shorthanded Theme
The other three rows in this game all trace back to the same two injury reports, so read them as variations rather than separate opinions.
Leonie Fiebich Under 1.5 threes, +105 (DraftKings), fair +101, 2.0% edge. The number that decides an Under 1.5 threes bet is attempts, and Fiebich's are real: five or more attempts in five of her last seven appearances, at a 42.3% season clip that argues for the Over on any full-volume night. So why does the fair price call the Under a near coin flip at 49.8%? Availability and rhythm. She has played just 16 of New York's 39 games, and her two August appearances split 3-of-5 against Indiana and 1-of-6 in Thursday's loss to Golden State. DraftKings pays +105 on a 49.8% proposition; four cents on a coin flip is a listed-price row, not a conviction row. Take it at +105 or leave it.
Courtney Vandersloot Under 3.5 rebounds, -145 (HardRock), fair -149, 1.1% edge. Vandersloot averages 2.7 rebounds in 21.9 minutes, so the line sits nearly a full board above her season rate, and she has stayed under it in three of her last five games. The consensus makes the Under a 59.8% proposition at -149 fair, and HardRock sells it at -145. The wrinkle is Cloud's knee. If Cloud plays, Vandersloot's minutes stay in their normal band and the season rate does the work. If Cloud sits, Vandersloot keeps running the offense at the 25-to-30 minutes she has logged in every one of her last five games, including the nine- and seven-assist nights, and more floor time means more rebounds falling near a veteran guard who is not chasing them by design. Four cents does not pay for that uncertainty; this is a listed-price row you place only after the Cloud decision drops.
Jonquel Jones Under 1.5 threes, +129 (DraftKings), fair +127, 0.9% edge. Here is the promised grade. Friday's edition carried Jones Over 1.5 threes as a 4.3% Saturday row, the widest early number on that board, and wrote that early money on an edge that size was defensible. This morning's capture answered: the overlay is gone. The Over is now priced past fair everywhere we can take it, and the only crumb the market left is two cents on the opposite side, the Under at +129 against a +127 fair. That is not a flip in what the market believes; the Over is still the favored outcome. It is the market agreeing with Friday's number so thoroughly that it bet the value away. Anyone who took the Over early is ahead of the current number, whatever the close brings. Anyone who waited is looking at a two-cent sliver on the other side, and two cents on a 44% proposition is a pass dressed as a pick. There is one more thing this row is good for: it explains the lead. A center going 4-of-6 from deep with zero assists is the same player profile that makes Under 2.5 assists the right side. Her offense lives outside her passing now. Pass, or the tiniest of tickets if +129 somehow grows.
Two passes in this game belong on the card:
- Kamilla Cardoso Under 2.5 Assists, Pass. Fanatics prices it at +105 against a +106 fair, so every takeable number sits at or below what the market says the bet is worth, and that is a pass regardless of how loud her form is. She just put up 24 points and 13 boards on Connecticut, the offense runs through her with the guards out, and the books have priced all of it.
- Azurá Stevens Under 10.5 Points, Pass. The same verdict: -102 on FanDuel against a -101 fair, no overlay anywhere. Her last five scoring lines read 3, 12, 4, 14, 18, a player the books cannot pin down either, and they charge accordingly. No value means no bet, in both directions.
The read on this game: four rows and two passes, all downstream of two injury reports. Jones's assists Under is the only full ticket and it leads the whole card. Fiebich and Vandersloot are listed-price rows, one waiting on a coin flip's price and the other on Cloud's knee. The threes row is closed business: the overlay Friday flagged has been bet away.
Want the fair price on every WNBA prop, not just these six? New users get a free 7-day trial of OddsShopper Pro, which de-vigs the full board and flags any side that clears fair automatically. Or take 20% off your first OS Pro payment with code WNBA20.
Tempo At Mercury: The Schedule Bets Against Assists
Because the early game's value came from missing creators, the late game should look familiar: it is the same mechanism wearing a travel schedule. The 11-28 Toronto Tempo play the 13-26 Phoenix Mercury at 10:00 p.m. ET, Toronto's third road game in four nights.
- Wednesday: in Seattle.
- Friday: a 93-73 loss in Las Vegas.
- Tonight: in Phoenix, the second night of the back-to-back, with Marina Mabrey (hip), Julie Allemand (head), Nyara Sabally (calf), and Maria Conde all out and Aneesah Morrow done for the year with a knee injury.
- Phoenix's Own List: Kelsey Plum out with a lower leg injury, Kahleah Copper a game-time call on her ankle, and a 5-14 home record.
The market still makes Phoenix a comfortable favorite, which tells you everything about how it rates a Toronto team running on fumes.
Laura Juskaite Under 2.5 assists, -150 (Fanatics), fair -172, 5.4% edge. Juskaite averages 1.7 assists in 24.9 minutes, so the line sits nearly a full assist above her season rate, and last night in Vegas she logged 28 minutes and exactly 2 assists. Friday's edition carried this same Under for the Vegas game as a coin-flip row, thin enough to shrug at; one game later the de-vigged consensus has hardened all the way to -172, a 63.2% proposition, and Fanatics is still selling the side at -150. That is a 22-cent gap between price and fair, the second-widest on today's board. The mechanism is everything this column has already told you: assists require a functioning offense and competitive minutes, and Toronto has neither tonight. The creators who would assist her, and whom she would assist, are in street clothes; the legs that would generate transition chances are on night two of a back-to-back; and if Phoenix pulls away, the fourth quarter goes to deep bench units that do not run sets. The counterargument is that with the roster this thin, someone has to touch the ball, and Juskaite played 28 minutes last night precisely because there is no one left; three of her last six games did clear 2.5. That is the 36.8% branch, and at -150 against a -172 fair you are being paid properly to fade it. One small ticket at -150 or better.
The pass here is the best story on the board, which is exactly why it stays a pass. Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 rebounds looks like a row this column should love: our de-vig makes the Under the favorite at -125 fair, and with Plum out Thomas is carrying a huge share of Phoenix's offense, 8 and 10 assists in her last two games, which is usage that eats into rebounding energy. The problem is arithmetic, not narrative. The best takeable price is -139 at DraftKings, 14 cents worse than fair, a -4.5% edge, and she has pulled 10, 6, 16, and 11 boards across her last four games besides. Right side, wrong price, no bet. If you remember one thing from this column, make it this row: the books priced the Thomas story past its worth, and paying -139 for a -125 proposition is how a good read becomes a bad bet.
The read on this game: one ticket and one temptation. Juskaite's Under is a real edge built on a depleted rotation and a back-to-back. The Thomas Under is the trap the slate set for people who do their homework but not their pricing.
The Full Board, Graded (Plus Sunday's Early Rows)
Every priced market from this morning's capture, bets and passes together, sorted by game and then by edge. Twelve rows: six from the early game, two from the late game, and four from Sunday's Lynx-Dream game marked accordingly, because a full day of injury-report risk sits between you and those. Confirm each price live before you act; on most of these, a few cents is the entire pick.
| Game (ET) | Bet | Best takeable | Fair | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky @ Liberty, 1:00 | Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 ast | +105 (HardRock) | -106 | 5.5% | Today's lead, small ticket |
| Sky @ Liberty, 1:00 | Leonie Fiebich Under 1.5 threes | +105 (DraftKings) | +101 | 2.0% | Listed price or pass |
| Sky @ Liberty, 1:00 | Courtney Vandersloot Under 3.5 reb | -145 (HardRock) | -149 | 1.1% | Listed price, after Cloud news |
| Sky @ Liberty, 1:00 | Jonquel Jones Under 1.5 threes | +129 (DraftKings) | +127 | 0.9% | Pass; Friday's Over edge is gone |
| Sky @ Liberty, 1:00 | Kamilla Cardoso Under 2.5 ast | +105 (Fanatics) | +106 | -0.7% | Pass, no overlay |
| Sky @ Liberty, 1:00 | Azurá Stevens Under 10.5 pts | -102 (FanDuel) | -101 | -0.5% | Pass, no overlay |
| Tempo @ Mercury, 10:00 | Laura Juskaite Under 2.5 ast | -150 (Fanatics) | -172 | 5.4% | Small ticket |
| Tempo @ Mercury, 10:00 | Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 reb | -139 (DraftKings) | -125 | -4.5% | Pass, priced past fair |
| Lynx @ Dream, Sun 3:00 | Courtney Williams Under 3.5 reb | +122 (FanDuel) | +116 | 2.8% | Sunday row, wait |
| Lynx @ Dream, Sun 3:00 | Courtney Williams Under 3.5 ast | +124 (FanDuel) | +122 | 0.9% | Sunday row, wait |
| Lynx @ Dream, Sun 3:00 | Rhyne Howard Under 3.5 threes | -165 (DraftKings) | -163 | -0.5% | Pass, no overlay |
| Lynx @ Dream, Sun 3:00 | Rhyne Howard Under 17.5 pts | -111 (DraftKings) | -109 | -0.9% | Pass, no overlay |
The rows worth narrating together are the Sunday pair, because Friday's column just taught us how to treat them. Courtney Williams Under 3.5 rebounds grades 2.8% for a game that tips more than 24 hours from this capture, the 31-8 Minnesota Lynx, owners of an absurd 17-2 road record, at the 25-14 Atlanta Dream. Williams averages 5.1 rebounds, so a 3.5 line with the Under at plus money is really a bet about what a first-place team does with rotation minutes in late August, and her last six boards read 7, 3, 1, 2, 3, 6: under this number four times. It is a real row. It is also exactly the situation Friday's 4.3% Jones row just taught us about: that edge was half again this size, it justified early money, and even it was gone by morning. A 2.8% edge does not pay for a full day of Lynx injury-report risk, and her 0.9% assists row certainly does not. Both get re-graded in Sunday's edition against fresh prices, next to whatever else that four-game slate surfaces. The two Rhyne Howard rows fill out the Sunday picture with passes; nothing on her board is takeable above fair, which is the market working correctly.
And the game lines, in one pass: this morning's capture returned no game-line rows in either game; everything it surfaced was a player prop. New York against a shorthanded Sky team and Phoenix at home against an exhausted Tempo squad are the two most obvious stories of the day, and neither side nor total showed up on the value list, so every documented dollar of value on this Saturday lives in the player markets, and specifically in the Unders of teams that cannot create. The passes belong on this card just as much as the clears do.
How To Bet A Two-Game Saturday
Five Saturday rows cleared fair but only two earn a ticket, three more Saturday rows graded no-edge, and four Sunday rows wait, two of them worth watching. The discipline for this exact card:
- Two Tickets, Both Assists Unders: Jones At +105 Or Better, Juskaite At -150 Or Better. They are the same idea, an offense that does not run through the player's hands, expressed at 5.5% and 5.4%. Small stakes on both; a two-game slate concentrates variance, and these are positive-expectation plays, never sure things.
- Everything Else In The Early Game Is The Listed Price Or Nothing. Fiebich at +105 and Vandersloot at -145 are both worth a few cents and no more, and the Vandersloot row should wait for Natasha Cloud's game-time decision, since a Cloud scratch pushes Vandersloot toward 30 minutes and weakens the Under. If your book shows a worse number than the listed one, there is no bet.
- Do Not Chase Friday's Threes Row. The 4.3% Over is gone and the two-cent Under that replaced it is not a bet, it is a receipt. The lesson compounds: wide early rows get bet away, thin early rows are not worth a day of risk, and the Sunday pair at 2.8% and 0.9% falls on the wait side of that line.
- Respect The Thomas Trap. The de-vig favors her rebounds Under and the best price still loses you money over time, because -139 against a -125 fair pays the book, not you. Being right about the player and wrong about the price is the most expensive habit in props betting; bankroll management exists precisely because edges this small punish sloppy entries.
- Cap Exposure Per Game, Not Per Row. The early-game rows are variations on two ideas: New York's blowout branch and Chicago's missing creators. The slip this card tempts is Jones's assists, Fiebich's threes, and Vandersloot's boards together, three Unders that all cash hardest in the same New York blowout, which means a parlay prices them as independent when they are one read bought three times. Price the ticket before you place it: run the build through the parlay builder so the combined number gets the same fair-value test as the singles, and read how I handle correlated WNBA legs in my WNBA parlay piece before you copy anyone's slip, including mine.
- When my own card has plays on it, it lives with the free expert picks on Tails, at my page.
The honest read on August 29 is that a two-game board still kept its promise: it told us what happened to Friday's early money, it paid out Friday's lead on Harrison by half a rebound, and it left two real tickets for anyone willing to bet assists Unders instead of star points. Nothing today asks you to be smarter than the market about who wins; our capture surfaced no game-line rows in either game, and the column passes on both straight up. What the market left behind is narrower and better: a plus-money price on a 51.5% proposition because a book was slow to follow Jonquel Jones's shift from hub to shooter, and 22 cents of overlay on a Toronto team too depleted and too tired to generate the assists its lines were priced for. Before then, two pre-tip checks decide the card: Natasha Cloud's knee before 1:00 p.m. tells you whether the Vandersloot row is live, and Kahleah Copper's ankle before 10:00 p.m. shapes how competitive Phoenix's rotation will be. Tomorrow brings a four-game Sunday, the Lynx row either survives the injury report or gets bet away like Friday's threes row, and tomorrow's edition will grade all of it, this card included, in public.
- WNBA Best Bets Today, Aug 28: Harrison Under 7.5 Rebounds Leads
- WNBA Best Bets Today, Aug 27: Ionescu Under 4.5 Assists Leads
- WNBA Parlay of the Day, Aug 28: Three Hard Rock Unders Pay 7.20
- Best WNBA Parlay For Monday (7/13): The Boost Play
FAQ
What are the best WNBA bets today, August 29? Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 assists at +105 on HardRock, against a de-vigged fair price of -106, is the widest edge on today's board at 5.5%, in the Sky-Liberty game at 1:00 p.m. ET. Laura Juskaite Under 2.5 assists at -150 on Fanatics (fair -172, 5.4%) in tonight's Tempo-Mercury game is right behind it. Five props cleared across the two games, all Unders, and the two widest edges are both assists props. Our capture returned only player-prop rows; every edge on the card is a prop.
Why is Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 assists the lead when the line is below her season average? Because the market still makes the Under the favorite and one book is paying plus money on it anyway. Jones averages 2.7 assists, but her recent games tell a different story: zero assists in Thursday's loss to Golden State while going 4-of-6 from three, one assist against Indiana before that, and under 2.5 in four of her last five games, one of them a six-minute night. With Satou Sabally out today, her role tilts toward shooting. The de-vigged consensus makes the Under a 51.5% proposition, a -106 fair price, and HardRock is selling it at +105. Getting plus money on the side the whole market already leans toward is the widest overlay on the board.
What happened to the two Saturday rows from Friday's edition? One evaporated and one changed markets. Friday's column carried Jonquel Jones Over 1.5 threes as a 4.3% Saturday row, the kind of edge worth taking a day early, and by Saturday morning the overlay was gone: today's capture prices the Over past fair and the only sliver left is the Under at +129 against a +127 fair. Anyone who bet the Over early is ahead of the current number. The Courtney Vandersloot Under 5.5 assists row did not return at value either; the market instead surfaced her rebounds, where Under 3.5 clears by 1.1%.
Why are all five of today's cleared rows Unders? Because both games feature a favored home team facing a badly shorthanded opponent, and because the Unders that cleared are assists, threes, and rebounds for teams missing their creators. Chicago is without DiJonai Carrington, Skylar Diggins, and Rickea Jackson, with Natasha Cloud a game-time call; Toronto is missing Marina Mabrey and Julie Allemand on the second night of a road back-to-back. Assists need functioning offenses and competitive minutes, and our de-vig found the books still pricing a few of those lines for normal games.
Should I bet the Courtney Williams rows now or wait for Sunday? Wait. Her Under 3.5 rebounds clears by 2.8% and her Under 3.5 assists by 0.9%, but both are for Sunday's Lynx-Dream game, which means a full day of injury-report risk sits between you and tip. Friday's edition called early money defensible at 4.3% and even that overlay was gone by morning. A 2.8% edge does not pay for a day of report risk on a first-place team that manages minutes. Sunday's edition will re-grade both rows against fresh prices.
How should I size bets on a two-game card? Two small tickets and a handful of listed-price rows. Jones Under 2.5 assists at +105 or better and Juskaite Under 2.5 assists at -150 or better are the only rows that earn real, still small, tickets. Fiebich's threes and Vandersloot's rebounds are the exact listed price or nothing. Jones Under 1.5 threes at two cents is a pass for anyone who missed Friday's entry. Cap exposure per game rather than per row, and treat every pass on the card as a bet you got right by not placing.
