Aliens Confirmed Odds: Will The U.S. Confirm Aliens Exist?
Prices as of August 9, 2026, 9:14 PM ET — this page rebuilds automatically from live Kalshi market prices throughout the day. A prediction-market price in cents is the market's implied probability: a 34¢ yes price means roughly a 34% chance.
The market right now: Whether the U.S. government officially confirms the existence of extraterrestrial life. Before Jan 20, 2029 leads at 24¢ (about a 24% implied chance), with the market set to settle by September 2026.
Live Odds Board
| Outcome | Yes Price (Implied %) | Bid / Ask | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 24¢ (24%) | 24¢ / 25¢ | — |
| Before 2028 | 16¢ (16%) | 16¢ / 17¢ | — |
| Before 2027 | 6¢ (6%) | 6¢ / 6¢ | — |
| Before December | 6¢ (6%) | 5¢ / 6¢ | — |
| Before November | 4¢ (4%) | 3¢ / 4¢ | — |
| Before October | 2¢ (2%) | 2¢ / 3¢ | — |
| Before September | 0¢ (0%) | 0¢ / 1¢ | — |
Only outcomes with a live bid or ask are listed; thinner names without a posted market are omitted rather than shown with stale or invented prices. The Move column compares against this page's previous build.
The Track Record Behind Our Reads
Every call our model panel makes is logged before markets settle and graded after — 35,772 graded calls on the public ledger as of 2026-08-09, including Gemini (3252 graded calls); GPT (3225 graded calls). No cherry-picking: wins and losses both stay on the record.
How To Read (And Trade) This Market
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market: each outcome trades as a yes/no contract priced 1¢–99¢, and settles at $1.00 if it happens, $0 if it doesn't. The price is the crowd's live probability — an outcome you believe is likelier than its price implies is, in expected-value terms, underpriced. Two practical notes before trading: spreads on longer-dated markets can be wide (check the Bid/Ask column — a big gap means you pay real edge just to enter), and Kalshi charges trading fees that scale with price (how Kalshi fees work).
FAQ
Why do these odds change? They're live market prices — every trade moves them. This page rebuilds automatically through the day, and the Move column shows what shifted.
What does a price in cents mean? Implied probability. A 25¢ yes contract implies roughly a 25% chance; if it settles yes, it pays $1.00.
Where can I see more markets like this? Our prediction markets hub tracks every market family we cover, with model verdicts and graded results.
OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst — prices above are Kalshi market prices, not our forecasts. Trading involves risk; contracts can go to zero.
