Aliens Confirmed Odds: Kalshi Prices The Disclosure Bet
Prices as of September 3, 2026, 2:35 AM ET — this page rebuilds automatically from live Kalshi market prices throughout the day. A prediction-market price in cents is the market's implied probability: a 34¢ yes price means roughly a 34% chance.
The market right now: Whether the U.S. government officially confirms the existence of extraterrestrial life. Before Jan 20, 2029 leads at 22¢ (about a 22% implied chance), with the market set to settle by January 2027.
Live Odds Board
| Outcome | Yes Price (Implied %) | Bid / Ask | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 22¢ (22%) | 21¢ / 23¢ | -3¢ |
| Before 2028 | 13¢ (13%) | 12¢ / 13¢ | -3¢ |
| Before 2027 | 4¢ (4%) | 4¢ / 4¢ | -2¢ |
| Before December | 4¢ (4%) | 3¢ / 4¢ | flat |
| Before November | 3¢ (3%) | 2¢ / 3¢ | flat |
| Before October | 2¢ (2%) | 1¢ / 2¢ | flat |
Only outcomes with a live bid or ask are listed; Thinner names without a posted market are omitted rather than shown with stale or invented prices. The Move column compares against this page's previous build.
The Track Record Behind Our Reads
Every call our model panel makes is logged before markets settle and graded after — 67,512 graded calls on the public ledger as of 2026-09-02, including GPT (7849 graded calls); Gemini (6535 graded calls). No cherry-picking: wins and losses both stay on the record.
How To Read (And Trade) This Market
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market: each outcome trades as a yes/no contract priced 1¢–99¢, and settles at $1.00 if it happens, $0 if it doesn't. The price is the crowd's live probability — an outcome you believe is likelier than its price implies is, in expected-value terms, underpriced. Two practical notes before trading: spreads on longer-dated markets can be wide (check the Bid/Ask column — a big gap means you pay real edge just to enter), and Kalshi charges trading fees that scale with price (how Kalshi fees work).
