Kalshi traders went into the August 19 deadline leaning toward a last-minute deal. The contract asked whether President Trump's 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods would start applying on schedule. It traded at 60 cents on Monday, August 17. By Tuesday afternoon the quote was 41 to 43 cents, and most of the open position had been repriced in a single day.
The Quick Answer
As of Tuesday afternoon, August 18, 2026, Kalshi's take-effect contract (KXCANTARIFFSEFFECT-26) priced the tariffs starting on time at 41 to 43 cents. That is a market saying a deal, a delay or a carve-out was slightly more likely than trucks at Windsor paying 50% more duty on Wednesday morning. The slide followed reporting that Canada's lead negotiator warned Washington the tariffs could halt trade talks. That contract closed August 19. The board below is the pre-close snapshot, not a live quote.
The Canada Tariff Board, As Of August 18, 2026
Five contracts made up the Canada tariff complex on Kalshi. Prices are Yes bid/ask in cents, pulled Tuesday afternoon, August 18.
| Contract | The question | Bid / Ask | Last | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXCANTARIFFSEFFECT-26 | Do the 50% Section 338 tariffs begin applying to covered Canadian goods on Aug 19? | 41 / 43 | 41 | Aug 19, 11:59 p.m. ET |
| KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-CAN | Executive action imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft before 2027? | 15 / 25 | 20 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-MINE | Executive action imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals before 2027? | 32 / 41 | 40 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| KXTRUMPTARIFFHEAR-27JAN-X | Does the Supreme Court agree to hear a Trump tariff case before Jan 2027? | 14 / 19 | 20 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| KXTARIFFBILL-27JAN01 | Does any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs become law before Jan 1, 2027? | 46 / 50 | 75 | Jan 1, 2027 |
One reading note. The legislation contract's last trade of 75 sat well above its 46/50 quote. That print was stale, and anyone reading the last price instead of the live quote would have thought Congress passing a tariff bill was a 3-in-4 proposition when the market said coin flip. In thin politics markets the quote is the market and the last trade is a memory.
Why The Take-Effect Price Fell From 60 Cents
Trump signed three proclamations under Section 338 on July 20, 2026. They put a 50% tariff on Canadian dairy, alcoholic beverages and motor vehicles, effective for goods entered on or after August 19. Law-firm analyses put the covered trade near $20 billion, about 5% of everything the U.S. imports from Canada, with no exemption for USMCA-qualifying goods (GHY International's customs advisory walks the mechanics).
The price fell because the other side of the table moved. The Globe and Mail reported that Canada's lead negotiator, Janice Charette, told U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that letting the tariffs bite could halt trade talks, since Ottawa could not control how provinces would respond. The open files in the negotiation were the same three categories the proclamations targeted: Canada's retaliatory auto tariffs, provincial restrictions on American alcohol, and dairy quotas. The proclamations read like a negotiating position with a countdown clock, and the market repriced them that way as talks intensified into the deadline.
How A Deal, A Delay Or A Carve-Out Would Settle Each Contract
A full deal before midnight. Proclamations withdrawn or suspended before the deadline, and the take-effect contract resolves No. The Canadian aircraft contract at 15/25 was priced as an escalation market, and a comprehensive deal is the scenario that walks it toward zero. The critical minerals contract at 32/41 is broader than Canada, so a deal dents it without killing it.
A delay. The contract asked whether the tariffs began applying on August 19 specifically. A proclamation pushing the date into September would still resolve No, because the tariffs did not begin on the 19th. Anyone holding Yes as a bet on "Trump follows through eventually" held the wrong contract; that thesis lives in the sector markets with December 31 deadlines.
A partial carve-out. Suppose autos get exempted and dairy and alcohol proceed. Some covered goods pay while others do not, and our read is that any of the three proclamations taking effect on schedule pushes hard toward Yes. It is the kind of edge case where the one-line summary and the full rules can point in different directions, and where settlement review exists for a reason.
Talks collapse and the tariffs bite. Yes settles and the action rotates to the rest of the board. The proclamations covered about 5% of Canadian imports, which left the other 95% as room for escalation, and Canadian aircraft were the named next target in the sector series. The aircraft contract had the widest spread on the board at 10 cents, which is the market saying nobody had strong information yet. It was the cleanest expression of "Wednesday goes badly" that survived past Wednesday.
Why The Supreme Court Contract Traded Below 20 Cents
On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs 6-3, ruling that statute does not delegate tariff power to the president. Section 338 is the replacement authority, and it is a different animal: it explicitly authorizes duties of up to 50% on countries found to discriminate against U.S. commerce, it has no expiration, and the July 20 proclamations were its first use in the statute's 96-year history. No case law means a legal challenge is close to certain if the tariffs stay on.
That is what KXTRUMPTARIFFHEAR-27JAN-X priced at 14/19: whether a Section 338 challenge reaches the justices on an expedited schedule before January 2027, the way the IEEPA case did. The market said the courts move slower than the news cycle. Our Kalshi Supreme Court markets page covers how the Court's own docket markets price this kind of timing.
One settlement wrinkle for anyone who held the take-effect contract: it settled on whether the tariffs began applying on August 19, per Kalshi's designated source agencies. A court striking Section 338 down months later does not reopen it. Settlement is a snapshot, not a subscription.
Bottom Line
The durable trades on this board were never the headline contract. The aircraft and legislation markets carry the "what comes after Wednesday" question into 2027, and the tariff-revenue stimulus market trades on the same fault line. The take-effect contract closed August 19; every price on this page is the August 18 pre-close snapshot, and the settlement result is not recorded here.
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