A lot can change over the course of two weeks. If you asked most people what the fate of this year's Las Vegas Raiders team would be, most would at least concede they miss the playoffs. It's only Week 3 but that prediction is looking shaky at best with a 2-0 start.
Since 1999, 139 of 225 teams that started 2-0 made the playoffs; 39 of 52 since the field expanded to 14 teams. Eight teams are in this position heading into Week 3. Below is what the market charges for each one to make the playoffs. Apparently what happens in Vegas doesn't always stay there.
The 2-0 board
Kalshi "make the playoffs" market, stamped Wednesday 9/23/2026, 12:03 PM ET.
| Team | Beat | Bid | Ask | Ask as odds | Ask before Week 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | HOU 36-31, DET 41-31 | 90¢ | 92¢ | -1150 | 76¢ |
| Bengals | TB 33-27, HOU 20-6 | 81¢ | 82¢ | -456 | 65¢ |
| Chiefs | DEN 31-10, IND 33-30 | 80¢ | 81¢ | -426 | 64¢ |
| 49ers | LAR 27-7, MIA 35-13 | 77¢ | 78¢ | -355 | 54¢ |
| Eagles | WAS 24-22, TEN 24-20 | 75¢ | 77¢ | -335 | 63¢ |
| Seahawks | NE 13-10, ARI 31-7 | 74¢ | 75¢ | -300 | 68¢ |
| Vikings | GB 39-22, CHI 9-3 | 60¢ | 61¢ | -156 | 42¢ |
| Raiders | MIA 27-13, LAC 26-14 | 30¢ | 31¢ | +223 | 15¢ |
A Yes contract pays $1 if the team makes the playoffs. The ask is what you pay for Yes right now. "Before Week 1" is the market's closing ask on Tue 9/8/2026. Sanity check: the mid-prices for all 32 teams add up to 14.0, against 14 playoff spots.
Is The Market Paying For A Hot Start?
Not at all. Look at each of this year's eight against every 2-0 team before them, and the prices pretty much match up:
| A 2-0 start turned into | Since 1999 | Since 2020 | This year's eight, average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Playoffs | 139 of 225 | 39 of 52 | 72¢ |
| Division title | 84 of 200* | 21 of 52 | 43¢ |
| Super Bowl win | 14 of 225 | 2 of 52 | 6¢ |
Average is the midpoint of bid and ask across the eight. *Division titles are counted from 2002, when the league went to eight divisions.
The market isn't buying a record, it's buying rosters instead. Both the Bills and Raiders each started 2-0 but one costs 92¢, the other at 31¢. San Francisco jumped the most, from 54¢ preseason to 78¢, while Seattle moved the least, from 68¢ to 75¢ due to the Sam Darnold injury.
Eight on Eight: 1 Thought on Each Undefeated Team
- Bills, 90¢ / 92¢. 69¢ for the AFC East, 12¢ for the Super Bowl. Seventy-seven points in two games, and the market's top 2-0 team by a mile. At 92¢ there's nothing left to buy.
- Bengals, 81¢ / 82¢. 46¢ for the AFC North, where they're the only unbeaten team. It's Week 3 and we've already seen injury issues with Joe Burrow, something to note. Cincinnati started 2-0 last season too, and missed the playoffs.
- Chiefs, 80¢ / 81¢. 59¢ for the AFC West, up from 33¢ before Week 1. That's the biggest division move on the board. The 31-10 opener came against a Denver team that went 14-3 last season.
- 49ers, 77¢ / 78¢. 36¢ for the NFC West. The biggest playoff move of the eight, after a 27-7 win at the Rams as 3.5-point underdogs. Blowing out the Dolphins in Week 2 certainly helped solidify the Niners' case.
- Eagles, 75¢ / 77¢. 61¢ for the NFC East. They won the two games by a combined six points as six- and seven-point favorites, so they covered neither. Doesn't matter in this market as there are no pictures in the box score.
- Seahawks, 74¢ / 75¢. 35¢ for the NFC West, a cent behind San Francisco. Lock holds the job while Darnold heals; ESPN's Brady Henderson put that at three to four weeks. It's not worth the buy as there's no lasting dip in the market from Darnold to Lock.
- Vikings, 60¢ / 61¢. 35¢ for the NFC North, and both wins came inside the division. Kyler Murray left the opener with a concussion, and Carson Wentz threw three touchdowns in relief, then won 9-3 at Chicago. The quarterback question is the discount.
- Raiders, 30¢ / 31¢. 9¢ for the AFC West, 1¢ for the Super Bowl. My call is below.
Best Bet
It's the Raiders to make the playoffs at 31¢.
Look at the AFC already starting to take form. Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, the Chargers, and Miami are all 0-2. Five teams already beneath the Raiders looking up on the chase. That same Raiders team that just stomped out the Chargers in Los Angeles as 6.5-point underdogs.
The same one with two double-digit wins this year. They face a surprise Saints team in Week 3 in New Orleans, with Vegas getting 3 on the board. Kirk Cousins is upright, Brock Bowers is practicing in Week 3, and the defense is top 10 in overall yards allowed per game.
I'm not asking for the impossible either, so remove the 9¢ pathway for the AFC West. That's not going to happen with the Chiefs sharing the same record.
Take out the division and roughly 22¢ of the 31¢ is a wild card ticket, in a conference where that race just got noticeably thinner.
What changes it
Week 3, and none of the eight play each other: Chargers at Buffalo, Bengals at Pittsburgh, Chiefs at Miami, Arizona at San Francisco, Seahawks at Washington, Vikings at Tampa Bay, Raiders at New Orleans, and Eagles at Chicago on Monday night. Since 2020, 28 of the 52 teams that started 2-0 won their third game too. Expect about half of this board to reach 3-0, and every price here to move with it.
Hero photo: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images; cropped.
