Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms are the favorite on Kalshi to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, at 19 cents. Seven AI models that priced this board without seeing a single price also put them first among the listed names, at 10%. Prices are Kalshi's last trade as of August 25, 2026; the panel ran on August 23.
Donald Trump is where the money is. His contract carries about 78% of everything this board has ever traded, and it costs 4 cents. The panel has him lower still.
The panel's biggest number belongs to nobody on the board. Kalshi lists 21 candidates. The Norwegian Nobel Committee says 287 people and organizations were nominated, and the panel's median call is a 60% chance that the name read out in Oslo on Friday, October 9 is one Kalshi does not sell.
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The Board
Every listed contract, plus the outcome the exchange does not sell. The Kalshi column is the last trade as of August 25, 2026; a contract costing 19 cents pays a dollar if it hits, so the price reads directly as the market's percentage. "Panel" is the median of the seven models after their revision round, priced on August 23 and held fixed since.
| Candidate | What it is | Kalshi | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|
| No listed candidate wins | not offered | not offered | 60.0% |
| Sudan's ERRs (Emergency Response Rooms) | volunteer aid network, Sudan | 19¢ | 10.0% |
| Save the Children | children's charity, London | 13¢ | 5.0% |
| Doctors Without Borders | 1999 laureate | 13¢ | 0.8% |
| Save Ukraine (Mykola Kuleba) | recovers abducted children | 7¢ | 6.0% |
| Shehbaz Sharif | prime minister of Pakistan | 6.7¢ | 0.3% |
| International Criminal Court | The Hague | 6¢ | 6.0% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | Russian opposition leader | 6¢ | 3.0% |
| UNRWA | UN Palestine refugee agency | 4¢ | 5.0% |
| Donald Trump | U.S. president | 4¢ | 1.5% |
| Narges Mohammadi | 2023 laureate | 4¢ | 0.1% |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | press-freedom group, New York | 4¢ | 4.8% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | president of Ukraine | 3¢ | 2.0% |
| Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue | private mediators, Geneva | 3¢ | 1.0% |
| International Court of Justice | The Hague | 3¢ | 6.5% |
| Francesca Albanese | UN rapporteur on Palestine | 2¢ | 2.0% |
| Minneapolis | the city and its residents | 2¢ | 0.2% |
| Sam Altman | OpenAI | 1¢ | 0.15% |
| Dario Amodei | Anthropic | 1¢ | 0.15% |
| Elon Musk | Tesla and SpaceX | 1¢ | 0.15% |
| Pope Leo XIV | the Vatican | 1¢ | 0.5% |
| European Union | 2012 laureate | 1¢ | 0.4% |
Add the Kalshi prices together and you get 104.7 cents. That is not an error. The prize can be shared by up to three laureates, and it has averaged 1.44 laureates over the last 25 awards. Read that way, the market is saying about 73% of this year's podium belongs to a name on this board.
The panel's version of the same sum is about 56 cents, which works out to roughly 39% of the podium. The market says seven-tenths of the winner is already tradeable. The panel says four-tenths. There is no contract that lets you take the panel's side.
The widest gap on a listed name is not the favorite. Doctors Without Borders trades at 13 cents against a panel median of 0.8%, and the reason is in the record books below.
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 84% on 6,053 graded calls · Claude Fable 84% on 709 graded calls · Claude Opus 84% on 779 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 82% on 757 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 4,760 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,504 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,542 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Seven of the panel's eight seats ran this board; the eighth returned nothing and is excluded rather than patched. Every number on this page lands in our ledger the day it is generated and gets graded against the October 9 announcement on the public model verdict scoreboard.
More live boards from the same panel: Ballon d'Or 2026 · Harry Kane 60¢ · Game of the Year 2026 · Grand Theft Auto VI 67¢. Prices fetched August 25, 2026.
Donald Trump: Most Of The Money, Almost None Of The Price
The nomination record behind him is real and dated. Representative Claudia Tenney nominated him on January 7, 2026, citing the Abraham Accords, and Representative Anna Paulina Luna nominated him for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Lithuanian lawmakers nominated him on January 30 alongside the American lawyer John Coale, for mediation that freed more than 300 political prisoners in Belarus.
Pakistan's prime minister Shehbaz Sharif announced two nominations of him, the first for the May 2025 India-Pakistan ceasefire, a premise India rejects: New Delhi maintains the halt came from direct talks between the two militaries with no foreign mediation.
Set against that is a message the committee cannot unread. In a note to Norway's prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre reported on January 19, 2026, Trump wrote: "Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America." He added: "The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland." The message was first reported by PBS and confirmed by an official in the Norwegian prime minister's office.
The panel priced him at 1.5%, below the market, and the reasoning was the same in every seat. This committee gave the prize to Liu Xiaobo over Beijing's objection and to María Corina Machado over Caracas's, and a message tying peace to a territorial demand is a hard thing for five appointees of the Norwegian parliament to reward.
"He is certainly nominated and certainly famous, and I still have him at 2%, because five Norwegian appointees chose Machado over the Venezuelan state and Liu Xiaobo over Beijing." — Claude Opus
Why The Panel Thinks The Winner Isn't Listed
Five people decide this, appointed by the Norwegian parliament: Jørgen Watne Frydnes as chair, Asle Toje as vice chair, Anne Enger, Kristin Clemet and Gry Larsen. They are the same five who chose Machado last October, which is the only directional read of this committee the outside world has. The nomination file stays sealed for 50 years.
The 287 figure is the committee's own, from its April announcement. Everything the public knows comes from nominators choosing to announce themselves, and fewer than 30 have. A candidate missing from the public list is not unnominated, and most of the public list is people publicising their own politics. Nominations closed on January 31, 2026, and committee members could add their own only up to the first meeting on February 26. A ceasefire signed in September changes the argument for a candidate; it cannot create one.
The One Public Signal, And Its Record
Each year the director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo publishes a personal shortlist, and it is the closest thing the outside world has to a read on the room. PRIO says the list is "not in any way based on privileged access to the decision-making of the Norwegian Nobel Committee", and its director abstains from nominating. The 2026 list, published March 18, has five entries: Mykola Kuleba with Save the Children; Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms; the World Trade Organisation; the Committee to Protect Journalists; and the International Court of Justice with the International Criminal Court.
Its record is mixed. From 2014 through 2025 the list contained that year's laureate four times out of 12. It missed the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet, ICAN, the World Food Programme, Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov, the Bialiatski trio, Nihon Hidankyo, and Machado. The misses are not random, either. Juan Manuel Santos was a 2015 entry who won in 2016, and the Emergency Response Rooms are on the list for the second year running after not winning in 2025.
Four of the five 2026 entries are tradeable on Kalshi. The World Trade Organisation has no contract at all. That is the first crack in the board, and the arithmetic under the table is the second.
The Rows That Carry The Argument
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms: First On Both Lists, Still Over The Panel
The Emergency Response Rooms are neighbourhood volunteers running kitchens, clinics and evacuation routes inside a civil war that has been going since April 2023. They fit the committee's most-repeated recent instinct almost too neatly: ordinary people doing dangerous work in a catastrophe the world has stopped covering.
Every seat had them at or near the top of the listed names. The highest seat, at 12%, still sits seven points under the 19-cent price, and the price has already come down four cents since the models ran. Theirs is the second-deepest book on the board behind Trump.
"Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) represent the strongest listed candidate. They fit the archetype of local, non-violent civic action in a devastating, underreported war." — Gemini
The panel's problem with the price is confidence rather than fit. Nobody outside that room in Oslo has grounds to be 19% sure of anything in August, and a favorite this legible tends to get priced on how available its story is.
Shehbaz Sharif, Doctors Without Borders, And The Rows The Market Overpays
Sharif is the fifth-most-expensive name on the board at 6.7 cents. He is also, on the public record, a nominator rather than a nominee. A resolution in Pakistan's Punjab Assembly called for nominating Sharif, army chief Asim Munir and foreign minister Ishaq Dar, but a provincial assembly asking for a nomination is not one. Nominations are secret, so nobody can say he was not nominated; what can be said is that no eligible nominator has publicly claimed him, and six of seven seats put him at or below 0.3%.
Two more rows carry the same shape for a different reason. Narges Mohammadi trades at 4 cents; she won in 2023, and in 125 years no individual has won the Peace Prize twice. Only two organizations have repeated, the Red Cross three times and the UN refugee agency twice, which is the history behind Doctors Without Borders at 13 cents against a panel median of 0.8%. The market is paying a 1999 laureate more than it pays the International Criminal Court.
The Cheap Rows The Panel Won't Dismiss
- International Court of Justice, 3¢, panel 6.5%. The largest upward repricing on the board. On PRIO's list, jointly nominated by Norwegian MP Even Eriksen with the ICC, and a PRIO shortlist entry five years running.
- International Criminal Court, 6¢, panel 6.0%. Same nomination, same logic. Several seats treated the two courts as one likely shared award.
- Committee to Protect Journalists, 4¢, panel 4.8%. PRIO's fourth entry, with the 2021 press-freedom award as the template.
- UNRWA, 4¢, panel 5.0%. A point above the price, and the seats split on why: its Gaza work as the cycle's most awardable humanitarian case, or its political entanglement as the reason a consensus-seeking committee picks something else.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
The revision round mainly moved one number, and it moved a lot. In round one the seats put the no-listed-winner outcome anywhere from 32% to 70%. After reading each other, the median settled at 60%.
"Forecasters B and F made a compelling arithmetic case that I undervalued the 287-candidate unlisted field. Their observation that roughly half of the last six laureates would likely have been off-board on a market like this, combined with the WTO being off-board here, convinced me to raise my 'no listed candidate' probability from 45% to 60%. I subsequently lowered my top board choices, though I maintained ERRs as the strongest listed option." — Gemini
One seat barely moved at all, and said why.
"Held essentially everything. The strongest opposing argument is Forecaster D's audit of the last six laureates against a hypothetical board (three of six would have been unlisted), pushing toward 70 off-board; that is the same history I already used, and it ignores that this board is unusually broad and holds the four live PRIO entries." — Claude Fable
The whole debate sits between two seats. GLM, at 42%, trusts the breadth of the board. Opus, at 63%, trusts the committee's long habit of surprising it, and the median refused to split the difference by much.
What Would Move These Prices Before October 9
Each contract pays if its candidate wins, with the Nobel Foundation as the named source, and there is no contract for an unlisted winner, so the panel's largest number is not something you can buy.
Three things would move the panel. A named eligible nominator publicly claiming a board candidate who has none: Doctors Without Borders, Sharif and the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue all carry a price with no public nominator behind it, and one credible announcement takes directly from the off-board number. Kalshi listing a World Trade Organisation contract, which would convert part of the panel's 60% into a tradeable name. And a leak.
There is precedent for the last one. Just after midnight in Oslo on October 10, 2025, the price of María Corina Machado winning went from 3.75% to nearly 73% on Polymarket in under two hours, and later that morning the committee read her name. The committee's secretary, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told Norwegian broadcaster TV2 it was "highly likely it's espionage". An investigation supported by Norway's intelligence services, made public at the end of January 2026, concluded a cyberattack was the most likely explanation and could not say who. The Nobel Institute has since announced unspecified security reinforcements. A repeat would make this board the most informative number in the world, too late to act on.
Most of the board is thin. Only Trump, the Emergency Response Rooms, Pope Leo XIV, Zelenskyy and Minneapolis have five-figure open interest, and on the thinnest rows the last trade sits under the current quote.
The Bottom Line
Both the market and the panel put the Emergency Response Rooms on top of the listed names. They disagree about the size of the room they cannot see into, and one of them is wrong. On the morning of October 9 the graded scoreboard says which, in public.
Model estimates generated August 23, 2026, price-blind, from a data card built the same day out of the Kalshi API, the Nobel Foundation's own records, the Norwegian Nobel Committee's publications and the public nomination record. Prices fetched August 25, 2026, 09:39 UTC. Seven of the panel's eight seats ran this board, each revising once after reading the others' anonymized reasoning; the headline blend is the median of the seven revised numbers. Models are frequently wrong, and the market price reflects real traders' money.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
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