Onslaught is 59% on Rotten Tomatoes on 123 reviews, which leaves it Rotten by one point, and the verified audience has it at 61%. Critics and ticket buyers agreeing this closely is rare, and it took the film two weeks and four different scores to get there: 80% before release, 53% on opening Saturday, 56% at Kalshi's settlement snapshot on Labor Day, 59% now. Every one of those swings came from a review pool small enough that nine critics could move it.
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The Scores As Of September 14
| Who | Score | Based on |
|---|---|---|
| Critics | 59% | Tomatometer, Rotten: 123 reviews, 72 positive against 51, average rating 6.0 of 10 |
| Top tier | 50% | Top Critics: 22 reviews, 11 positive against 11 |
| Fans | 61% | Popcornmeter, verified ticket buyers: 250+ ratings, 269 liked against 169 |
| All fans | 54% | Popcornmeter, all audience: 500+ ratings, 406 liked against 347 |
Pulled from the Rotten Tomatoes page at 8:03 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2026.
The Top Critics row is the one worth a second look. That subset sits at exactly 50%, 11 for and 11 against out of 22, and it has been stuck on an even split since Labor Day weekend while the general pool climbed three points. When the harshest readers of a film land on a coin flip and the wider pool lands nine points higher, the honest reading is that the movie works for some people and not others, rather than that it is quietly good or quietly bad.
Adam Wingard directed, Simon Barrett wrote, and Adria Arjona plays an Army sniper protecting her daughter from a squad of genetically engineered soldiers in the desert. The early genre and trade press treated it as a Carpenter homage and graded it accordingly: MovieWeb's August 31 roundup quoted SlashFilm calling it "the single greatest John Carpenter movie that John Carpenter never made." Everything filed after those first 25 reviews has run close to even, which is how an 80 becomes a 59.
An 80% Became A 53%, Then Climbed Back
| When | Score | Reviews | Positive / negative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Aug 31 | 80% | 20 | 16 / 4 |
| Mon Aug 31 (later count) | 76% | 25 | 19 / 6 |
| Thu Sept 3, night | 59% | 69 | — |
| Fri Sept 4, 4:20 PM ET | 56% | 89 | — |
| Sat Sept 5, 10:07 AM ET | 53% | 98 | — |
| Mon Sept 7, 7:57 AM ET | 56% | 107 | 60 / 47 |
| Mon Sept 14, 8:03 PM ET | 59% | 123 | 72 / 51 |
ComicBookMovie counted 80% on 20 reviews on August 31 and MovieWeb's snapshot the same day ran 19 positive against 6. From 25 reviews to 107, the pool split exactly in half, 41 positive and 41 negative. CBR and ScreenRant tracked the slide midweek, and by Thursday night the film was already Rotten at 59 on 69. Opening day ran 9 positive against 11 and put the score on 56.
The tail has run warm, which is the opposite of what usually happens. The 16 reviews filed since Labor Day morning have gone 12 positive and 4 negative, a 75% clip that lifted the film three points. For contrast, By Any Means, which opened the same weekend on the same 56, has taken 19 late reviews at 5 positive and 14 negative and fallen to 47.
Kalshi Settled It At 56 Or 57
Kalshi ran 17 contracts on the score, ticker KXRT-ONS, each asking one question a rung apart: "If Onslaught has a Tomatometer score of above 55 on Sep 7, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes." The board closed on that 10:00 AM snapshot on Monday, September 7. Above 55 resolved Yes and Above 57 resolved No, which brackets the number on screen that morning at 56 or 57.
| Strike | Mon Sept 7, 7:57 AM (bid / ask) | Result | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 45 | 99¢ / $1.00 | Yes | $1.00 |
| Above 50 | 99¢ / $1.00 | Yes | $1.00 |
| Above 55 | 96¢ / 99¢ | Yes | $1.00 |
| Above 57 | 1¢ / 2¢ | No | $0.00 |
| Above 60 | 0¢ / 1¢ | No | $0.00 |
| Above 65 | 0¢ / 1¢ | No | $0.00 |
| Above 70 | 0¢ / 1¢ | No | $0.00 |
Quotes as published on this page from the 7:57 AM ET pull on September 7, two hours before the snapshot. The ten strikes not shown, from Above 62 up to Above 90, all resolved No. Results confirmed against Kalshi's market records for KXRT-ONS on September 14.
Two days earlier the same Above 55 contract was 7 cents bid and 8 offered. That is the whole story of the weekend in two prices.
The Nine Reviews That Turned It
The weekend wave arrived in two halves that could not have looked less alike. The first nine reviews, between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, ran two positive against seven and printed a 53 on 98. The next nine, between Saturday morning and Monday morning, ran eight positive against one and printed a 56 on 107. Add them together and the wave ran 10 positive against 8, which is 55.6% positive, and 60 of 107 is a raw 56.07 — half a point clear of the 55.5 that would have rounded it down to a losing 55.
The book found the turn on Sunday afternoon. Above 55 spent Saturday between 3 and 7 cents and printed its low of 2 cents at 8:25 AM Sunday. In the 3:00 PM ET hour Sunday it traded 10,715 contracts and went from 9 cents to 44, with 9,701 of them bought, in stacks: 2,500 at 15 cents at 3:40 PM, 2,000 at 21 cents at 3:49, 500 at 44 at 3:59. The first print above 50 cents landed at 6:05 PM. Sunday as a whole traded 32,741 contracts on that strike and 73.5% were bought.
Monday morning finished it. In the 6:00 AM ET hour the contract traded 19,931 contracts and went from 73 cents to 98. At 6:12:51 AM three prints hit at once: 3,202 contracts at 83 cents, 1,892 at 84, and 11,555 at 89 — the largest single print in the market's life. Of the 22,626 contracts that traded between midnight and the 7:57 AM pull, 22,036 were bought.
Above 57 was the mirror. It traded 47,762 contracts from Saturday morning to Monday morning and never printed above 5 cents. Buyers were paying 2 cents for a 58 that needed four straight positive reviews from 60 of 107. They did not get them, and the contract resolved No.
Why The Pool Size Decided It
Onslaught survived its weekend for the same reason By Any Means did not: 107 reviews absorb a bad notice and 53 do not. One review moves a 107-review pool by less than a point. It moves a 53-review pool by nearly two. Both films sat at 56 on Friday afternoon, September 4; Onslaught's Above 55 paid and By Any Means' did not, and the difference was arithmetic, not taste.
That is the reusable read on any Rotten Tomatoes score market. The count underneath the percentage is the bet. A film with 100 reviews on settlement morning is a different instrument from one with 50, even when the number on screen is identical, and the Fresh and Rotten labels carry no weight at all — only the number at 10:00 AM does.
The Read
If you are deciding whether to watch it, the honest summary is that 59% of critics and 61% of verified ticket buyers gave it a pass, and the average critic score is a flat 6.0 out of 10. Nobody on either side is arguing about this film. If you traded the board, the lesson is that nine reviews were the entire market: a contract went from 55 cents to 7 to 96 in three days on a pool that produced 18 reviews in 63 hours, for a $15 million picture that no second round of critics went out to see. The Hollywood Reporter had it at $782,000 on Friday and headed for about $2.3 million for the weekend, and DraftKings Network estimated $1.88 million for the three days. Small release, small review pool, enormous price swings. Nothing here is financial advice.
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