The Quick Answer
Will Venable, manager of the Chicago White Sox, is priced at 74 cents to win the 2026 American League Manager of the Year on the prediction market Kalshi as of Monday, September 7, 2026, 8:11 AM ET, which on that market means about a 74% chance. Eight days ago he was 68. Nobody else on the board is above 15 cents, and the two closest, Chad Tracy at 15 and Kevin Cash at 12, keep trading places instead of closing ground. The open question is not who is favored, it is whether the movement behind Venable is being driven by news or by a handful of trades.
The Numbers
| Name | Price now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venable | 74% | 75% | -1 |
| Chad Tracy | 15% | 14% | +1 |
| Kevin Cash | 12% | 17% | -5 |
| Skip Schumaker | 5% | 5% | flat |
| Aaron Boone | 3% | 3% | flat |
| A.J. Hinch | 3% | 3% | flat |
| Alex Cora | 2% | 2% | flat |
| Stephen Vogt | 2% | 2% | flat |
| Mark Kotsay | 1% | 1% | flat |
| John Schneider | 1% | 1% | flat |
| Dan Wilson | 1% | 1% | flat |
| Craig Albernaz | 1% | 1% | flat |
| Matt Quatraro | 1% | 1% | flat |
| Joe Espada | 1% | 1% | flat |
| 3 More Names | 1% or less | 1% or less | flat |
A Week Took Him From 68 To The Mid 70s
The daily closing prices tell the story cleanly. Venable closed at 68 on August 30, then 69, then 70, then 74 on September 2, then 77 on September 3. He has closed at 75 three days running since, and sits at 74 this morning. That is a range of 68 to 77 over eight closes, with the whole climb happening in the first four days and the last four spent parked.
That is what a market looks like when the case has already been made and the buying is mostly done. Yahoo Sports ran a piece on August 22, 2026 titled "Three things Will Venable must do to win AL Manager of the Year". Two weeks later the price says the checklist is close to finished.
The 5-Cent Drop With 10 Contracts Behind It
Here is the number I would not skip past. Kevin Cash fell from 17 cents to 12, the biggest move on the board, on roughly 10 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. Chad Tracy, meanwhile, absorbed about 951 of the board's roughly 1,019 traded contracts in that same window and moved a single cent.
Some scale for that. About 297,725 contracts on this board are still open, meaning bought and not yet cashed out or settled, and about 437,175 have changed hands since the market opened. Against those totals, a day of 1,019 is a trickle. A 5-cent move on 10 contracts is not news arriving, it is a thin market with nobody standing behind the old price. Treat Cash at 12 and Cash at 17 as roughly the same read.
What Could Still Break It
Two things, and neither is priced very high right now.
The first is Tracy's job title. The Boston Globe asked on August 21, 2026 whether it was "about time the Red Sox removed 'interim' from manager Chad Tracy's job title". A real resolution there is the kind of thing that could move 15 cents.
The second is the voters' habit of re-upping. Stephen Vogt won this award "back to back" per mlb.com on November 11, 2025. He is 2 cents today. The board is not pricing a repeat, but it has happened on this exact award in the last cycle.
About The Numbers
Every price here comes from the Kalshi board titled "AL Manager of the Year Winner?", captured Monday, September 7, 2026, 8:11 AM ET, along with that market's own daily closing prices and trade counts. Kalshi is a prediction market, where you buy a contract on an outcome and it pays out 1 dollar if that outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so the price doubles as a rough probability. Read Venable at 74 cents as about a 74% chance. The settlement rule is plain: the contract on Venable resolves Yes if he wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year, and the market closes December 8, 2026. If you add the whole column it comes out past 100, which is normal, because each name is bought and sold as its own separate contract and the gap between what buyers bid and what sellers ask gets baked into every one of them. Prices from a day with about 1,019 total contracts traded carry less weight than the same move on heavy volume.
