Cubs vs Mariners Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sun 4:10 PM ET. On the mound: Shota Imanaga (Cubs) vs Bryce Miller (Mariners). Moneyline: Cubs -105 (HardRock) at Mariners -104 (FanDuel) — best prices across 12 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (+355) and Cal Raleigh (+355) lead tonight's Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Donovan (SEA) | +300 | NoVig | 25.0% | 1 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | +355 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 22.0% | 38 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +355 | NoVig | 22.0% | 36 |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | +456 | Kalshi | 18.0% | 28 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 37 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 37 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 37 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 37 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 23, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at T-Mobile Park: park index 110.9 · wind 4 mph.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — 35% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 18 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +343 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +343 · NoVig +335
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — punishes sinkers and cutters 14% of the time, and that is 3% of what this starter throws · 45% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 12 PA against lefties. (model confidence A)
- books: best +310 at Fanatics
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 37% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529
- Michael Busch (CHC) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · homers every 22 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · ProphetX +539 · NoVig +590
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — homers every 20 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +370 at Fanatics
- Ian Happ (CHC) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 24 PA against righties. (model confidence A)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · ProphetX +549
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +450 at Bet365
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- DylansDailyLocks on Tails likes Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-113). Bet now
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes Victor Robles Over 0.5 Total Stolen Bases (+670). Bet now → DraftKings
- EMac on Tails likes these plays:
- Cobi O'Connell on Tails (#3 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+624). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners. Cobi O'Connell posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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