Reds vs Diamondbacks Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sun 4:15 PM ET. On the mound: Andrew Abbott (Reds) vs Mitch Bratt (Diamondbacks). Moneyline: Reds +122 (Betcris) at Diamondbacks -120 (HardRock) — best prices across 12 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks board opens with Elly De La Cruz at +500 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Fernandez (ARI) | +335 | NoVig | 23.0% | 1 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | +500 | Unibet | 16.7% | 37 |
| Eugenio Suárez (CIN) | +500 | Fanatics | 16.7% | 36 |
| Sal Stewart (CIN) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 37 |
| Michael Toglia (CIN) | +568 | ProphetX | 15.0% | 1 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | +608 | ProphetX | 14.1% | 37 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 37 |
| Nolan Arenado (ARI) | +650 | Bet365 | 13.3% | 37 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 23, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Chase Field: park index 106.1 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 47% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +506
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — homers every 24 PA against lefties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +485
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584
- Eugenio Suárez (CIN) — 33% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +465
- Tyler Stephenson (CIN) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 47% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +600 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · NoVig +590
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +852 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +770 · NoVig +852
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — homers every 22 PA against lefties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +944 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +944 · Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +941 · NoVig +900
- James McCann (AZ) — on the bat alone — homers every 91 PA against lefties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +770
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-155). Bet now
- EdgeAI Plus on Tails likes Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-129). Bet now → DraftKings
- SEvansBets on Tails likes Mike Soroka Over 5.5 Total Strikeouts (-127). Bet now
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes these plays:
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes Mike Soroka Over 5.5 Total Strikeouts (-154). Bet now → DraftKings
- OS Lottos on Tails (#4 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Matt McLain Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110). Bet now
- DylansDailyLocks on Tails likes Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-133). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-168). Bet now
- Cobi O'Connell on Tails (#3 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+615). Bet now → FanDuel
More from these experts on Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks. Cobi O'Connell, EdgeAI Plus, FOTP, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, Rebel Mickie, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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