Twins vs Padres Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sun 4:10 PM ET. On the mound: Bailey Ober (Twins) vs Walker Buehler (Padres). Moneyline: Twins +125 (Fanatics) at Padres -134 (FanDuel) — best prices across 12 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+344) and Byron Buxton (+355) lead tonight's Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Fermin (SD) | +335 | NoVig | 23.0% | 1 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +344 | NoVig | 22.5% | 37 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | +355 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 22.0% | 33 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +400 | NoVig | 20.0% | 36 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +408 | BookMaker | 19.7% | 36 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | +460 | BookMaker | 17.9% | 35 |
| Ty France (SD) | +496 | BookMaker | 16.8% | 36 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | +555 | Betcris | 15.3% | 32 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 23, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Petco Park: park index 99.6 · wind 6 mph.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 15% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +344 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +337 · NoVig +344
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — punishes sliders 15% of the time, and that is 12% of what this starter throws · homers every 21 PA against righties. (model confidence A)
- books: best +519 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +519
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +344 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +344
- Manny Machado (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 33% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +388 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · NoVig +388
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 35% of what this starter throws · homers every 21 PA against righties. (model confidence A)
- books: best +400 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +397 · NoVig +400
- Josh Bell (MIN) — punishes sliders 14% of the time, and that is 12% of what this starter throws · homers every 25 PA against righties. (model confidence A)
- books: best +450 at BetMGM
- Gavin Sheets (SD) — homers every 24 PA against righties. (model confidence A)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539
- Royce Lewis (MIN) — on the bat alone — homers every 36 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence A)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · NoVig +426
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- EdgeAI Plus on Tails likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (-134). Bet now → FanDuel
- BGrebbs on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes these plays:
- SEvansBets on Tails likes these plays:
- OS Lottos on Tails (#4 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Casey Mize Under 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (+100). Bet now
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (-135). Bet now
- MoneyBall Metrics on Tails (#9 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (-134). Bet now
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-112). Bet now → Kalshi
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (-115). Bet now → TheScore
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Total Hits (+195). Bet now → Polymarket
More from these experts on Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres. BGrebbs, DFSnDonuts Picks, EdgeAI Plus, JediModi, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
