Willson Contreras at +425 headlined the Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox home run board — every priced bat is below, with the book that paid the most on each.
On the board for Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox: Willson Contreras, Miguel Vargas, Munetaka Murakami, Randal Grichuk, Wilyer Abreu, Colson Montgomery are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +425 | Kalshi | 19.0% | 36 |
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +425 | BetMGM 🎁 | 19.0% | 36 |
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +500 | Fanatics | 16.7% | 36 |
| Randal Grichuk (CHW) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 33 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +550 | Fanatics | 15.4% | 35 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +550 | Fanatics | 15.4% | 36 |
| Andrew Benintendi (CHW) | +650 | PointsBet | 13.3% | 4 |
| Joey Bart (ATL) | +700 | BetRivers 🎁 | 12.5% | 8 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 4, 2026 · 01:20 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Fenway Park: park index 76.7 · wind 5 mph.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +475 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +451 · NoVig +426
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — punishes sliders, and that is 33% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +510 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +471
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +525 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +525
- Willson Contreras (BOS) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 39% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +425 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +286 · ProphetX +412 · NoVig +388
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 30% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +425 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +319 · ProphetX +416 · NoVig +376
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +617 · NoVig +590
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +650 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +608 · NoVig +590
- Masataka Yoshida (BOS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +960 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +882 · NoVig +900
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- John the Bettist on Tails likes Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+425).
- ShanderBets on Tails likes Boston Red Sox -1.0 Run Line (+106). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox. JediModi, John the Bettist, ShanderBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners · Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs · Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves · Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals · New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians · Oakland Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers · San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks · San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers · [St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees](/articles/expert-picks/st-louis-cardinals-vs-new-york-yankees-home-run-picks-2026. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
