MLB Best Bets Today: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (6/15)
In Summary (TL;DR)
Looking for MLB best bets today? Every day, Eric "Lindy" Lindquist breaks down every game on the MLB board for OddsShopper in his show, Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks, and these are his MLB picks today for the Monday card. His approach is not about which teams he roots for. It is about price versus probability and chasing closing line value, one of the better signals that a bet was a good one the moment you made it, as long as the line moved in a real, liquid market and not on a quick social-media pile-on. Here is his card for Monday, June 15, a 10-game slate he played selectively in a late Sunday-into-Monday edition: a pair of strikeout-under props, a full-game run total, a couple of longshot home-run swings, plus a few leans he wanted to see more numbers on. Read each as Lindy's read at the price he got, not a sure thing, and always shop the current number yourself before you bet. Lines and lineups move right up to first pitch. You can watch the full show on YouTube for his game-by-game reasoning.
How Lindy Builds a Card
What makes Lindy's plays worth understanding is the method behind them, which is the same method any winning bettor uses:
- Closing Line Value (CLV) Is The Scoreboard, When The Market Is Real. Lindy's whole job is to find the best bet in every game and secure the price before the market catches up. If a number moves toward your side after you bet it in a liquid, efficient market, that is the market agreeing you found an edge, and it is a more reliable read than any single win or loss. The caveat: not every line move counts. A play that gets jammed in a thin market on a social-media pile-on and then bounces right back is a CLV mirage, not proof of an edge. Real CLV comes from a deep market moving on its own. For the full breakdown, see our closing line value explainer.
- Price And Probability, Not Who You Like. Lindy is upfront that he does not decide how the slates shake out, he just finds the best bet in every game and prices it. On this card he passed on pitchers he likes and bet pitchers he is lukewarm on, because the number, not the name, decides the play. That is the discipline that separates a bettor from a fan. More on finding that edge in our how to find +EV bets guide.
- Process Over Results. He had an awesome Saturday and a complete dud on Sunday, and was trying to claw back over his 15-unit mark for the month. The response to a bad day was not to chase, it was to stay on the process. A rough Sunday does not break a good method.
- Props Are Where The Edges Hide. Most of his card is strikeout and home-run props, smaller markets where the books sharpen their numbers less than they do a marquee moneyline. He projects batting order and pinch-hit risk on home-run bets, because an extra at-bat is real expected value and a player yanked early is lost value. His MLB home run picks today and MLB strikeout props today come out of that work.
- The Tools Do The Heavy Lifting. Lindy builds the card on OddsShopper Pro: the odds screen scans every book for the best number, the live liquidity tool shows where sharp money is moving across dozens of markets per day, the Portfolio EV tool surfaces straight bets priced in your favor, and the in-game EV tool finds value once first pitch is thrown. That kind of line shopping and odds comparison across 100-plus books is how one analyst prices a 10-game slate, every day, seven days a week.
Lindy's MLB Plays for Monday, June 15
These are the plays Lindy put on his card for the 6/15 slate, at the prices he had when he recorded late Sunday night. Treat them as his reads at those numbers and confirm the live price before you bet. He sizes most standard plays at a half unit, with the longshots and high-variance spots smaller.
- Zach Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts (Around -105), Marlins At Phillies. Wheeler is excellent and still keeping the ball in the yard, but Lindy reads 6.5 as too high here: the Marlins are a pesky lineup that runs up a low strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, with lefty bats like Kyle Stowers and Xavier Edwards he has to navigate. A bet on the matchup, not against the pitcher.
- Dustin May Over 4.5 Strikeouts (Around -122), At San Diego. A standard pick-and-play. May does not bring elite swing-and-miss, but San Diego strikes out at a roughly 23% clip against righties, and Lindy preferred the 4.5 strikeout number to the alternate-market alternatives at the price.
- Michael Busch Home Run (+325, Cubs Vs Rockies At Wrigley). The lineup-and-park play. Busch has crushed left-handed pitching this season and draws Michael Lorenzen at Wrigley with the wind blowing out, the most wind-affected park in baseball. Lindy has Busch's true home-run chance well inside +280, so +325 is the value, as long as Busch lands in the top of the order.
- Angels At Diamondbacks Under 9 Total Runs (Quarter Unit). Arizona has been baseball's worst lineup against right-handed pitching this season by weighted runs created, and the Angels carry one of the highest strikeout rates against righties in a cavernous park with the roof closing. Lindy kept this small because he does not fully trust either bullpen to hold the under late.
- Tyler Soderstrom Home Run (+390, Athletics Vs Pirates). Lindy called this a ridiculous number. Jared Jones gives up a high launch angle and big expected power to left-handed bats, which sets up squarely for Soderstrom back in their home park. The whole edge is the price being longer than the matchup deserves.
- Eric Lauer Under 3.5 Strikeouts (About A Third Of A Unit), Rays Vs Dodgers. The last game of the night, sized a touch bigger than a quarter unit but below his standard half. Lauer has not been missing bats, and Tampa Bay rarely strikes out against anyone, so Lindy reads this as a positive-EV spot entering the work week.
A few of his reads on this card stayed as leans he wanted more numbers on before committing: the Washington Nationals moneyline (he liked the Andrew Alvarez side but wanted to see where the market landed), a bat he liked in the Twins at Rangers game that he was waiting on prices for, and a Kevin McGonigle home run at +600 in the Tigers-Astros game that he had not played yet, wanting it north of +650 by first pitch. Leans are not bets. Treat them as spots to monitor, not plays to fire.
How to Bet These the Smart Way
Tailing a sharp is only worth it if you bet like one. A few rules that travel with every play above:
- Shop the number. Lindy's edge often comes from getting a better price than the market settles on. If your book is shorter than the number quoted here, the value shrinks or disappears. Compare your books and take the best price; the OddsShopper MLB odds screen lines them up in one place.
- Respect the stake sizes. A quarter unit on a run total is not the same bet as a longshot home run. Lindy sizes the high-variance plays small on purpose because they lose far more often than they hit. Size to your bankroll and never chase a bad night.
- Watch the lineup. Home-run props and strikeout props live and die on the projected lineup and pinch-hit risk. A bet placed the night before can lose its value when the card is posted, so confirm the lineup before first pitch.
- Judge it over a season, not a slate. Even a positive-EV card loses plenty of nights. Lindy's own Sunday was a dud heading into this Monday. The point is the price you got, not one day's result.
Bet with the tools Lindy uses. He builds every card on OddsShopper Pro, which scans 100-plus sportsbooks to surface the best number, the live liquidity tool, and the in-game EV tool, the same tools he uses to price a full slate seven days a week. New to OddsShopper? It does, automatically, the line-shopping and pricing work this card shows by hand. Start with a free 7-day trial, then his code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Lindy? Eric "Lindy" Lindquist is OddsShopper's MLB analyst. His daily show, Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks, walks through every game on the board and the plays he is making, with the reasoning and the price behind each one. It airs seven days a week. You can watch the 6/15 show here.
What were Lindy's best bets for Monday (6/15)? His card included Zach Wheeler under 6.5 strikeouts, Dustin May over 4.5 strikeouts, Michael Busch to homer (+325), the Angels-Diamondbacks game under 9 runs, Tyler Soderstrom to homer (+390), and Eric Lauer under 3.5 strikeouts. He also flagged the Washington Nationals moneyline, a bat in the Twins-Rangers game, and a Kevin McGonigle home run (+600) as leans he had not yet bet. Prices and lineups move, so this is a recap of a past slate, not live advice.
What is CLV and why does Lindy care so much about it? Closing line value is the difference between the price you bet and where the line closes. If the number moves your way in a liquid, efficient market, that is the market agreeing you had an edge, which is why Lindy treats it as a scoreboard. The caveat: a line that jumps on a quick social-media pile-on and then snaps back is a CLV mirage, not real validation. See our CLV explainer.
Should I just tail every pick? Only at a price that beats the player's true chance. Lindy's edge comes from the number he gets and disciplined sizing. If you cannot get a similar price, the value is gone, and longshot props should always be small. New to the markets? Our MLB betting terms guide covers the basics, and our NRFI explainer covers a popular baseball prop.
Where can I follow Lindy's full daily card? Lindy posts his complete card on Tails, where you can follow his picks every day. See his Tails page for the full slate.
Is betting on MLB legal? Sports betting is legal in many regulated U.S. states, but availability and rules vary by state. Bet only where it is offered, and play 21+ and within your means.
The Bottom Line
Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks is a daily lesson in betting the price, not the team. His 6/15 card leaned on two strikeout unders, a full-game run total, and a pair of longshot home runs, each one a read at a specific number, not a guarantee, with a handful of leans he wanted more numbers on. Shop your price, size your longshots small, watch the lineups, and judge the card over a season. This recap covers a past slate, so use it to learn the method, then apply it to today's board.
Follow Lindy's full MLB card, every day. Get his complete slate of plays on his Tails page. And to bet with the same tools he uses, start a free OddsShopper Pro trial and take 50% off your first week or month with BABYLINDY50.
Bet only where it is legal and available, and only with money you can afford to risk. 21+ where legal; if betting stops being fun, step away.
