Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Leans, Likes & Locks (6/19)

In Summary (TL;DR)

Eric "Lindy" Lindquist runs the entire MLB board every day for OddsShopper, and his Friday (June 19) end-of-week card is built around a heavy home run menu and two strikeout props he rates above everything else. He posted four home run plays: Kevin McGonigle at +650 (his "first click of the day"), Cody Clemens at +600 (his favorite homer on the board), Jack Caglianone at +575, and Joe Adell at +375. His two favorite props are not home runs at all: Jacob Misiorowski's strikeout over inside -110, and Roki Sasaki over 15.5 outs at -117. He also fired Tatsuya Imai over 4.5 strikeouts at -105 and a Cubs-game under 7.5, and flagged a few leans he was still waiting on. Read each one as Lindy's bet at the number he posted, never a sure thing, and shop the live price yourself before first pitch. You can watch the full show on YouTube to hear every read in his own words.

Watch the Video

Here is the full Friday breakdown straight from the OddsShopper channel, with Lindy walking every game and the price behind each play.

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Lindy's Card at a Glance

Game	Lindy's Play	Price	Conviction
White Sox @ Tigers	Kevin McGonigle to homer	+650	First click of the day
Twins @ Diamondbacks	Cody Clemens to homer	+600	Favorite home run play
Cardinals @ Royals	Jack Caglianone to homer	+575	Like
Angels @ Athletics	Joe Adell to homer	+375	Like
Brewers @ Braves	Jacob Misiorowski strikeout over	inside -110	Favorite prop on the board
Orioles @ Dodgers	Roki Sasaki over 15.5 outs	-117	Second-favorite prop
Guardians @ Astros	Tatsuya Imai over 4.5 strikeouts	-105 (now -110)	Like
Blue Jays @ Cubs	Game under 7.5	shop live	Like

Prices and lineups move right up to first pitch, so confirm the live number on every play before you bet.

The Method: Bet the Price, Not the Player

Before the plays, here is how Lindy decides what to fire. The slate changes every day, but the process behind it holds steady.

• Price versus probability, full stop. Lindy bets numbers the books have priced too long, not the players he happens to like. He passed on side after side on this board, saying the break-even on most of them sat too close to the posted number to bother. The bets that survived are the ones where the gap between his fair price and the offered price was clear. Our how to find +EV bets guide breaks down the same idea for any market.
• Home run props are a long game, sized small. Every individual home run bet, Lindy is blunt, misses far more often than it hits. He keeps each swing tiny, a standard quarter unit, and lets a deep sample rather than any one night decide whether the prices were right. He noted he has run only one half-unit homer all season.
• Batting order, handedness, and weather are the edge. His home run reads lean on projected lineup spots, platoon splits, and park conditions: a left-handed bat against a right-handed pitcher who bleeds power that way, in weather and a bullpen profile that help the ball carry. Strip the handedness off one of these stats and the entire angle disappears, which is why he keeps it welded to the number.
• Closing line value, in the right market. When a number you beat drifts toward your side, that is the market confirming you were early. Lindy watched his Imai strikeout over move from -105 toward -110 and expected it to keep climbing, the kind of move that supports the read in a market with real two-way action. For the full breakdown, see our closing line value explainer.
• The tools price the slate. All of this runs on OddsShopper Pro. The odds screen scans every book for the best available number, the live liquidity tool shows where sharp money is moving so you can tail it, and the in-game EV tool surfaces value once first pitch is thrown. That is how one analyst prices a full board this fast.

Lindy's MLB Best Bets for Friday, June 19

These are the plays Lindy actually fired, at the prices he posted on the show. Treat them as his reads at those numbers, and confirm the live line before you bet, because home run prices and lineups shift in the hours before lock.

Kevin McGonigle to Homer, +650 (White Sox vs. Tigers)

Lindy's "first click of the day." He has banged the McGonigle drum all week, calling him one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball and pointing to his expected home run numbers as evidence the bat has been better than the results. The conditions sealed it: the game is back in Detroit with the wind blowing out at about 15 mph, McGonigle sits north of a 20-degree launch angle, and his plate discipline grades out elite. He drew Tigers right-hander Eric Fedde as the spot, and at +650 Lindy took the swing.

Cody Clemens to Homer, +600 (Twins vs. Diamondbacks)

This is Lindy's favorite home run play on the whole board. Diamondbacks right-hander Michael Soroka is not the most exploitable arm for left-handed power, but his pitch profile carries loft across the board, with everything sitting at 18 degrees or higher, and Arizona's entire bullpen outside of one arm is right-handed. That points him straight at Clemens, a left-handed bat with big power who he has batting third for the Twins against right-handed pitching. At +600 on a hitter that size in that spot, Lindy called it positive EV "in just about every single category," and expects Clemens to get two or three at-bats before any lefty reliever can intervene.

Jack Caglianone to Homer, +575 (Cardinals vs. Royals)

The Royals draw Cardinals right-hander Max McGreevy at Kauffman Stadium, and Lindy is on Caglianone's power even though there is not a crazy fly-ball profile here. His read is the exit velocity: Caglianone does not need to lift the ball much because it comes off the bat around 105 mph, and McGreevy is giving up a 153 ISO against a 245 expected ISO, a sign the right-hander has been getting away with more than he should. Caglianone has been hitting near the top of the order and Lindy expects him to keep a three-hole spot. At +575 against the Cardinals, he liked the price.

Joe Adell to Homer, +375 (Angels vs. Athletics)

Lindy's "first to back" in this one. He has waited on Adell all season and now likes the matchup against Athletics left-hander Jeffrey Springs, who he says gives up serious right-handed power. Adell brings a 233 ISO and a low 20.6% strikeout rate, with a 290 expected ISO, a 16-degree launch angle, and six home runs already against left-handed pitching this season. With Mike Trout on the injured list, Lindy expects Adell to sit in the top three of the order and draw the attention of the Athletics. At +375 against a left-hander he profiles to punish, that was the swing.

Jacob Misiorowski Strikeout Over, Inside -110 (Brewers vs. Braves)

Lindy's favorite prop on the entire board. He says he has backed Misiorowski's strikeout over seven times this season with one loss, and the read here is the matchup as much as the arm. The Braves are missing Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris, leaving a lineup he calls more strikeout-prone, with bats like Eli White who whiff more against right-handed pitching. Lindy is blunt that he does not expect 15 strikeouts, but says there are strikeouts available against this group, and he backs the over inside -110. He does not post a specific strikeout line on the show, so confirm the exact total and price on your book before you bet.

Roki Sasaki Over 15.5 Outs, -117 (Orioles vs. Dodgers)

His second-favorite prop, behind only Misiorowski. Sasaki had been one of the best starters in baseball over the prior month before a rough start in Chicago, and Lindy reads that as a blip in a wind-aided park rather than a true level drop. At home at Dodger Stadium, where the team controls the mound and the environment, Lindy thinks Sasaki gets enough leash to clear 15.5 outs, a number he has cleared his last two times out. He noted Pinnacle's sharper book sits at 16.5 outs and has not moved off its open, which tells him the -117 over on 15.5 is the better side of a juiced number. The 15-cent premium to get the extra out, he argues, is worth it against this lineup.

Tatsuya Imai Over 4.5 Strikeouts, -105 (Guardians vs. Astros)

Lindy called this one of his favorite strikeout overs in a while. He likes Imai's stuff over the last month and sees real strikeout upside against a Cleveland lineup he calls more targetable without José Ramírez on top of it, citing high-strikeout bats like Kyle Manzardo and Gabriel Arias in the order. He noted the under was hanging at +106 at FanDuel and +105 at Hard Rock while the over he wanted had only ticked from -105 to -110, and he expects it to keep climbing through the day, a market move he reads as confirmation. He thinks Imai finds five strikeouts here.

Blue Jays at Cubs, Under 7.5 (Gausman vs. Ben Brown)

The lone game-total play. Lindy is fixated on the wind blowing in slightly from left field at Wrigley, the opposite of the wind-out games the park has been serving lately, which flips the park factor toward the under. He likes Kevin Gausman against any pull-side right-handed power that the wind would knock down, and rates Cubs starter Ben Brown as quietly very good. He pushed back on the projection sources touting Cubs home runs, saying his own break-even numbers are nowhere close, and fired the under at 7.5.

The Leans He Did Not Fire

A handful of games he studied stayed on the lean list rather than the bet list.

• Rockies over 11.5 runs (-104), Pirates at Rockies. He likes this side at Coors Field, with Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland bleeding right-handed power, but called it a lean for now while he waits to readdress home run numbers in the morning, since only about half the books had posted.
• Boston Red Sox moneyline, Red Sox vs. Mariners. Purely a knock on a banged-up Seattle lineup with Julio Rodríguez dinged up. He flagged a Ranger Suárez strikeout angle as something to watch but left it off.
• Brewers Yankees run line. He talked through the New York side but said he is staying away. He noted home run lines are not his favorite bet and that he is 0-2 on them this season, the kind of result he is careful not to overreact to over such a tiny sample.

Most of the board is a pass; the bets that survive are the ones where the number is clearly on his side.

A Worked Example: Why -117 on Sasaki Over 15.5 Outs Is a Bet

Lindy's Sasaki play is a clean way to see how he uses a sharper market to grade a number. A -117 price implies a win probability of about 53.9% (117 / (117 + 100)). So the book is treating "Sasaki records at least 16 outs" as a little better than a coin flip.

His tell is the cross-book comparison. Pinnacle, a sharp and liquid book, hangs Sasaki at 16.5 outs near a coin flip and has not moved off its open, which implies the true number is closer to 16-plus outs than to 15.5. If the sharp market thinks 16.5 is roughly even money, then 15.5 should clear comfortably more than 53.9% of the time, and the distance between that true read and the -117 price is the edge. The 15-cent premium to drop the line a full out is the cost of buying a number the sharp book says is on his side.

The takeaway: Lindy is not predicting Sasaki dominates. He is buying a number a sharper, more liquid market grades as too short. That is the whole game, find the price the efficient market disagrees with, and take the best version of it.

When you run a slate yourself, the OddsShopper odds screen lines up every book's number in one place, and OS Pro's Portfolio EV grades each price against the no-vig true odds, so you only stake the spots that clear true value.

Bet with the tools Lindy uses. New to OddsShopper? It scans every major sportsbook and flags the bets priced in your favor, the exact work Lindy does by hand above, and it is the same OddsShopper Pro suite he builds every card on. Try it free for 7 days, then code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month: Start your free trial.

Betting Lindy's Card the Smart Way

Following a sharp only works if you bet like one. A few rules that apply to every play above:

1. Shop for the number. Lindy's edge is often the price itself. A homer prop at +600 on one book might be +560 on another, and that difference is the value you are capturing. Line them up on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen and take the best number on the board.
2. Size longshots like longshots. A quarter unit on a +650 home run is not the same wager as a strikeout over. These miss far more often than they hit, and Lindy keeps them tiny on purpose. Stake to your bankroll.
3. Check the lineup before first pitch. Home run props live and die on the batting order and pinch-hit risk. A number that looked great the night before can evaporate when the card posts, which is exactly why Lindy left several plays as leans until he saw it.
4. Judge it across a season. Even a well-priced card loses plenty of nights. What grades a bet is the price you locked in, and that takes a full season's sample to show up, which is also why his 0-2 on home run lines means very little either way.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Lindy? Eric "Lindy" Lindquist is OddsShopper's MLB analyst. His daily show, Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks, walks the full board game by game with the plays he is making and the price and reasoning behind each one. He also hosts a longer MLB research show most days.

What are Lindy's MLB picks for today (6/19)? His fired plays were four home runs (Kevin McGonigle +650, Cody Clemens +600, Jack Caglianone +575, Joe Adell +375), Jacob Misiorowski's strikeout over inside -110, Roki Sasaki over 15.5 outs at -117, Tatsuya Imai over 4.5 strikeouts at -105, and a Blue Jays at Cubs game under 7.5. Prices and lineups move, so confirm the live number before you bet.

Which play does Lindy like most? He ranked Jacob Misiorowski's strikeout over as his favorite prop on the board, Roki Sasaki over 15.5 outs as his second-favorite, and Cody Clemens at +600 as his favorite home run play.

Quick tip: The prices above are the numbers Lindy posted on the show. They move before first pitch, so always pull up every book on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen and take the best version of each play.

Why so many home run props? Home run props are smaller markets where Lindy can get ahead of the book on lineup spots, handedness splits, and park conditions, so a longshot price can carry real value. He sizes each one tiny because they miss far more than they hit, and he leans on a large sample rather than any one night.

Where can I follow Lindy's full daily card? Lindy walks his complete board every day on his OddsShopper show. Watch the Friday show on YouTube to hear every read, and build the card yourself on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen.

The Bottom Line

Friday is a home-run-heavy board off a strong week, built on one idea: Lindy only fires when the posted number is longer than the true odds. He stacked four homer swings (McGonigle +650, Clemens +600, Caglianone +575, Adell +375), leaned hardest on two strikeout props in Misiorowski inside -110 and Sasaki over 15.5 outs at -117, added a developing Imai over and a Cubs under 7.5, and left the rest as leans. Shop your number, keep the longshots small, watch the lineups, and grade the card across a full season's sample.

Bet with the same tools Lindy uses. OddsShopper scans every major book and flags the bets priced in your favor. Start a free 7-day OddsShopper Pro trial, then take 50% off your first week or month with BABYLINDY50: Get OddsShopper Pro.

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