Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Wednesday June 24 Best Bets
If you follow the Leans, Likes & Locks show on the OddsShopper YouTube channel, you know how Eric "Lindy" Lindquist works a slate: he goes one game at a time through the entire MLB board, puts a real price on every play, and passes on anything that does not clear his break-even number. Tuesday was a clean one for the show, so he came back for a 16-game Wednesday card with more swings than usual. Here is the June 24 board and the read behind each play he fired.
In Summary
- The most confident play on the card is a strikeout prop: Joe Ryan over 5.5 strikeouts at -105 against a thinned-out Dodgers lineup, sized like a true lean-toward-lock at better than half a unit.
- Lindy is on three home run shots: Jac Caglianone at +515, Garrett Mitchell against a Reds righty, and a tiny longshot dart on Brayan Rocchio that boosts up toward +2,000.
- Two more strikeout overs round out the props: Eury Pérez against a weak Rangers lineup and Braxton Ashcraft over 6.5 at +155, plus an Aaron Nola under 4.5 strikeouts going the other way.
- The lone moneyline is a small play on the Arizona Diamondbacks near even money at St. Louis.
- The thread through all of it is the same one the show is built on: bet the gap between the fair price and the price on the screen. That is exactly what the OddsShopper odds screen surfaces for you.
- New to OddsShopper? You can try the same tools free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OS Pro.
Watch the Video
Lindy walks all 16 games in the show below. This article pulls out the plays he actually fired and the reasoning behind each, but the full board, including the leans he is still watching, is in the video.
Watch on YouTube
Wednesday's Card at a Glance
These are the plays Lindy leaned on hardest, with the price he cited and the one-line read. Lines move fast, especially on props that have not been up long, so treat these as the angle, not a live quote. Always confirm the current number on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen before you fire.
| Play | Game / Spot | Price Cited | The Read |
|---|
| Joe Ryan over 5.5 strikeouts | Dodgers at Twins, vs. Ohtani's lineup | -105 | LA resting bats; the back half is loaded with high-strikeout hitters |
| Jac Caglianone to homer | Royals at Rays, vs. Griffin Jax | +515 | Six homers in his last five games; Jax leaks power to lefties |
| Braxton Ashcraft over 6.5 strikeouts | vs. Mariners | +155 | Pitches deep with real swing-and-miss, even against a healthier Seattle |
| Eury Pérez over strikeouts | Marlins at Rangers, vs. deGrom | listed | No Seager, a soft Texas lineup, and a lefty catcher to attack |
| Aaron Nola under 4.5 strikeouts | Phillies at Nationals | under | Washington is elite at putting the bat on the ball vs. righties |
| Garrett Mitchell to homer | Brewers at Reds, vs. a righty | bet | 229 expected ISO vs. righties; trimmed only for pinch-hit risk |
| Brayan Rocchio to homer | Guardians, vs. a lefty opener | longshot (boosts to +2,000) | Switch hitter who rarely strikes out; a 0.1-unit lotto with boost upside |
| Arizona Diamondbacks ML | at Cardinals, vs. Liberatore | even money | Liberatore leaks lefty power; small play with Carroll in a good lefty-on-lefty spot |
The Top Play: Joe Ryan Over 5.5 Strikeouts
This is the one Lindy is most fired up about, and it is worth slowing down on. Shohei Ohtani is on the mound for the Dodgers, but the bet is on the other starter. Joe Ryan got scratched with an illness on Tuesday (the same news the show jumped on for the Dodgers run line), so he comes into Wednesday on extra rest and should be good to go.
The reason this is the headline play is the lineup he gets to face. The Dodgers are missing Will Smith and Dalton Rushing, and that opens up the bottom of the order in a hurry. Chuckie Robinson sits north of a 33% strikeout rate, Alex Freeland is around 28%, and the outfield bat slotting in runs close to 30%. So even though the Dodgers post a sub-21% team strikeout rate against righties, that summary number hides how targetable the back half of this specific lineup is.
Add it up and Lindy makes this nearly a pick'em proposition, which is why he can take Ryan's over at -105 on FanDuel and feel great about it. He sized it bigger than his usual flat stake, better than half a unit, because the spot is that clean. If the math on why a true coin flip at -105 is a bet is new to you, the +EV logic behind it is the place to start.
New to OddsShopper? It scans 100-plus sportsbooks and prediction markets and flags where the price is longer than the true odds, the exact gap Lindy is hunting by hand on a prop like this one. You can try it free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OS Pro. Start your free trial
The Home Run Shots: Caglianone, Mitchell, and a Rocchio Dart
Three longballs made the card, all built on the same idea: a hitter who lofts the ball against a pitcher who gives that power up.
Jac Caglianone to homer at +515 (Royals at Rays). Caglianone has been the story for Kansas City, with six home runs in his last five games, including a two-homer day against a lefty. He draws Griffin Jax, who carries a 211 expected ISO against left-handed bats, and the price is sitting north of +500. Lindy expects that number to come crashing down once the public catches up to the double-dong line, so this is a get-in-early play.
Garrett Mitchell to homer (Brewers at Reds). Mitchell does the one thing that travels for a home run bet: he lofts the baseball and he runs a high strikeout rate, which is the profile of a hitter who hits the ball hard when he connects. He carries a 229 expected ISO against righties and draws a Reds starter who has not missed bats against lefties. The only reason this is not an outright half-unit jam is a sliver of pinch-hit risk, since Cincinnati can pull him in a platoon spot. If he gets four at-bats, Lindy calls it gigantically positive expected value.
Brayan Rocchio to homer (Guardians, against a likely lefty opener). This is a 0.1-unit lotto ticket, not a conviction play, and Lindy is upfront about that. Rocchio is a switch hitter with five home runs on the season, two from the right side, who almost never strikes out and carries a 14-degree launch angle. The base price is a longshot — enough that even a dime stake returns better than a full unit if it hits. The kicker is the boost math: with a 50% FanDuel boost in play, that number pushes north of +2,000, and stacked onto an Underdog gimme pick it runs north of +3,000. Small stake, big number, and the kind of spot where the leverage does the work.
The home run dart rule. These longballs are sized at a fraction of a unit on purpose. A +515 bat lands tails most nights, so the bet is never a prediction that the ball leaves the yard. It is a wager that the price is longer than the true chance, which is the only reason to fire a number this big.
These are the three home run plays on the card, and they are sized like the darts they are. If you want just the day's longballs in one place, the MLB home run picks page refreshes daily.
More Strikeout Props: Eury Pérez and Braxton Ashcraft
Two more pitcher strikeout overs cleared the number, and both lean on weak or beatable lineups.
Eury Pérez over his strikeouts (Marlins at Rangers) was the first play off the top of the card. Jacob deGrom is the name on the other side, but the bet is Pérez, who draws a Texas lineup without Corey Seager. The strikeouts are there against this group, and a left-handed catcher in the lineup gives Pérez even more to attack. Miami's defense behind him lets him stay aggressive rather than pitch around traffic, and that helps the count.
Braxton Ashcraft over 6.5 strikeouts at +155 (against the Mariners). Ashcraft has been a quiet swing-and-miss story all year, and he pitches deep enough into games to clear this number. The wrinkle is that Seattle is getting healthy: Cal Raleigh went deep, Julio Rodríguez is back, and Randy Arozarena is in the lineup. So Lindy gave the Mariners their respect by trimming to a quarter unit rather than hammering it, but he is happy to take the over at +155 (and would do the same at the +145 floating around other books). That edge-proportional sizing is just bankroll management in practice.
Going the Other Way: Aaron Nola Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Not every prop is an over. Aaron Nola under 4.5 strikeouts (Phillies at Nationals) is a quarter-unit play in the opposite direction. Washington has quietly become a nightmare for opposing pitchers, posting one of the best marks in baseball against right-handers thanks to bats like James Wood and CJ Abrams. They do not chase and they put the ball in play, which drags down a righty's strikeout total. Nola gets the ball at a good hitter's park, and Lindy sees enough contact coming to fade his whiff count.
The Lone Moneyline: Arizona Diamondbacks Near Even Money
The one side play is a small one on the Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis, near even money. The Cardinals counter with Matthew Liberatore, a lefty who gives up real left-handed power, which sets up a good lefty-on-lefty look for Corbin Carroll. Lindy would have stepped on this for a half unit if he had more clarity on Arizona's rookie southpaw, who has put up a sub-1.00 WHIP in the launching pad that is Triple-A Reno. That WHIP is telling him something, even against weaker competition at elevation, so he is willing to take a small swing at the price.
The Leans He Did Not Fire
Just as much of the show is about the passes, and a few spots are on the watch list rather than the bet sheet:
- The Cubs-Mets doubleheader home runs. No lines were posted the night before, so there is nothing official yet. Lindy is eyeing Mets home runs in the opener against the Cubs and Cubs home runs in the nightcap against Sean Manaea, whose flyball profile invites it. Wait for the numbers to drop.
- A Rockies home run dart. A switch-hitting Colorado bat is in a hittable spot, but the price was already north of -150, too rich to fire the night before. Lindy expects something from that game to surface closer to first pitch.
- A Braves-Padres over 7.5. Michael Harris II hit the ball hard on Tuesday and leads off for Atlanta, but with this much already on the card, the total felt a touch too thin to add.
- Gage Jump strikeouts (Athletics at Giants). A pick'em-viable prop he likes pairing with Joe Ryan, but he had not pulled the trigger yet, so it stays a lean.
And the full ejects: he wanted no part of Yankees-Tigers (two southpaws, a tough park, and wind blowing in), Astros-Blue Jays, or Orioles-Angels after watching Baltimore manage one run the night before.
How Lindy Builds This Card (and How to Copy It)
Strip away the names and the method repeats for any slate:
- Start from a fair price, not a feeling. If the number on the screen is not past break-even, there is no bet, no matter how much the player profile is liked. Most games end in a pass.
- Let the park and the lineup move the number. A scratched starter, missing regulars, a platoon-heavy bottom of the order, a soft-tossing arm at elevation. Those inputs make a price wrong before the market corrects.
- Shop the number once there is a play. Lindy names the exact book and price for a reason. Taking the worse number quietly hands back expected value, which is the whole idea behind closing line value.
- Size to the spot. The home run shots are quarter-unit and dime darts; the cleanest strikeout prop gets better than half a unit. The variance on a +515 longball is real, so it gets respected, not hammered.
You can run that same loop without doing the legwork by hand. The OddsShopper odds screen lines up every book and prediction market on one page and shows the de-vigged true odds next to the offered price, so the gap Lindy finds manually is just sitting there for you. The live in-game tool is the same one he leans on when a game is already in motion.
FAQ
Who is Lindy and what is Leans, Likes & Locks?
Lindy is Eric Lindquist, who hosts the MLB Leans, Likes & Locks show on the OddsShopper YouTube channel. He works through every game on the slate, attaches a real price to each play, and grades everything against a break-even number.
What is the top play for June 24?
The most confident play is Joe Ryan over 5.5 strikeouts at -105 against a shorthanded Dodgers lineup, which Lindy sized at better than half a unit. His favorite home run shot is Jac Caglianone at +515.
Why does he pass on so many games?
Because a bet only exists when the price on the screen is longer than his break-even number. If the number is not in his favor, there is no edge to take, so he moves on. That discipline is the point of the show.
How do I find these price gaps myself?
The OddsShopper odds screen does it automatically. It shops every book and prediction market at once and shows the true, de-vigged odds next to the offered price, so you can see where the value is without building it by hand.
Try the Tools Behind the Card
Lindy's edge is not a hot streak. It is pricing every play against the real number and only firing when the gap is in his favor. OddsShopper is what does that for you: it scans 100-plus sportsbooks and prediction markets, shows the de-vigged true odds next to the price, and flags the bets that are actually in your favor.
Try it free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OS Pro or OS Core. Start your free trial
