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Monday finished right around the break-even line for Lindy after a Miguel Vargas (CHW) home run swing got robbed at the wall by Colton Cowser, so Tuesday's MLB slate is a clean reset. Eric Lindquist taped a quick, play-heavy edition of Leans, Likes & Locks for a packed 15-game board, and the throughline is heat: a handful of parks sit in the 90s with the wind helping, and that is exactly where his home run darts live today.
In Summary
- Konnor Griffin (PIT) to homer at +950 is the longshot dart (a tiny 0.1-unit stab) in Philadelphia's wind.
- Jac Caglianone (KC) to homer at +390 in 91-degree heat at Kauffman is the home run play Lindy likes most.
- Colson Montgomery (CHW) over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs is the leadoff lean into a lefty-friendly Camden Yards.
- The total he officially fired: Angels vs. Mariners under 7.5 (-114).
- Leans without a fired bet: Mets vs. Blue Jays over 8, Padres/Cubs over 11.5, a Dodgers run line, and a Braves lefty-power angle.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (MLB)
This was a fast, internet-permitting edition, so Lindy ran straight through the card. Watch the full breakdown for the reads in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
Tuesday's Card At A Glance
| Play | Market | Price | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Konnor Griffin (PIT) | To Hit A Home Run | +950 | 0.1u (dart) |
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | To Hit A Home Run | +390 | Standard |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs | n/a | Small/thin |
| Mets Vs. Blue Jays | Game Total Over 8 | -102 | Standard |
| Angels Vs. Mariners | Game Total Under 7.5 | -114 | Standard |
Prices like a +950 home run number move book to book, so check the OddsShopper MLB home run board before you fire. The same longshot can hang a couple hundred points lighter at the next sportsbook, and on a tenth-of-a-unit dart that gap is most of your edge.
Lindy's Home Run Plays
Jac Caglianone (KC) (+390 to homer) is the one Lindy is most excited about, and the reason is the environment as much as the bat. The Royals host the Rays in 91-degree heat with roughly 54% humidity and a 15 mph wind toward left field, and Caglianone has been scorching at Kauffman, with three homers there over the last week and a half plus a double off Shane McClanahan. He carries north of a .200 expected ISO, climbing to .219 against left-handed pitching, and he draws a lefty here. Lindy called it an "absolute yahtzee" of a spot.
- The Case: 91-degree heat at Kauffman with the wind pushing out to left.
- Caglianone is on a heater in this park (three recent homers there).
- He profiles even better against lefties (~.219 expected ISO), and he gets one.
Lindy's sizing tip: a +950 home run longshot is a 0.1-unit dart, never a core play. Stake the price, not the name, and shop that number across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars before you fire.
What A +390 Home Run Bet Pays (Worked Example)
A +390 price on Caglianone implies a roughly 20% chance to homer (100 divided by 390 plus 100). Put $20 on it and a hit returns $78 in profit, $98 back total. That is the math behind a "standard" home run play: you do not need it to connect often, you need the price to be longer than the true odds of the swing. The whole job is finding the book offering the best version of that number.
Konnor Griffin (PIT) (+950 to homer) is the longshot, and Lindy sized it accordingly at a tenth of a unit. Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) has essentially one pitch a hitter can lift, the slider, and when Griffin does catch it, the ball goes a long way up. Add 14 mph winds blowing straight out to left field in Philadelphia and mid-80s weather, and a +950 leadoff longshot becomes a worthwhile stab. He likened the spot to the kind of plus-money home run number people swear can never hit, right up until it does.
- The Case: Sánchez's slider is the one pitch in the at-bat Griffin can drive for power.
- 14 mph wind straight out to left in Philadelphia.
- Pure dart: 0.1 units at +950, nothing more.
Colson Montgomery (CHW) is the leadoff lean on the card, over 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs against Trey Gibson (BAL). Montgomery is not going to carry a huge average, so this is a thinner number by nature, but Camden Yards plays up for left-handed power and the matchup invites it. It is a smaller-conviction spot than the two home run prices above, sized to match.
The Totals Lindy Likes
The board is loaded with hot, wind-aided parks, and two game totals stood out enough to bet.
In Toronto, Nolan McLean (NYM) vs. Kevin Gausman (TOR) gets the over 8 (-102). The roof should be open with the wind blowing out to right field and high-70s weather after a stretch of cold, closed-roof days, and an open-air Rogers Centre simply plays bigger.
Out west, José Soriano (LAA) vs. Bryan Woo (SEA) is an under 7.5 (-114). Lindy trusts Woo to carve up the Angels, and Soriano induces enough ground-ball contact to keep Seattle's bats in check, so he stayed away from laying the heavy Mariners moneyline and bet the number instead.
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Leans And Passes Across The Board
A few games Lindy talked through without firing a full bet:
- Padres Vs. Cubs Over 11.5 (Lean): JP Sears (SD) is a lefty who gives up loud contact, and Matthew Boyd (CHC) has been vulnerable to right-handed power, so a run-back of Ty France (CHC) and the over are both in play. Lindy expects to have something here.
- Dodgers Run Line (Lean): Jeffrey Springs (ATH) is another lefty, and the Dodgers keep hitting left-handers hard. With Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom both on the IL, Los Angeles is the side, just not a play he locked in.
- Cardinals At Braves (Lean): Matthew Liberatore (STL) struggles against lefties, which points at Drake Baldwin (ATL) and Matt Olson (ATL) for some damage. Lindy would rather find a clean Braves -1 than the home run line.
- Miami Team Total Over (Building): Coors Field with Tanner Gordon (COL) and a shaky bullpen, 88 degrees and a 12 mph wind out, screams a 10-to-12-run game. He wants to de-vig the alternate team totals before posting a number, so it is a no-play for now.
- Twins Moneyline (Pass): Joe Ryan (MIN) is the clear pitching edge, but without Byron Buxton in the lineup, -117 is not a price Lindy wants. He pivots to player props instead.
- Tarik Skubal (DET) As A Plus-Money Dog (Pass): he wanted this one, but he is showing respect to Cam Schlittler (NYY) and a Yankee Stadium that projects hot, with the total at 7.5 and two arms he rates.
- Jacob deGrom (TEX) At -115 (Pass): deGrom has been elite at limiting power lately (sub-.050 expected ISO against lefties over his last four starts), but Lindy does not love laying -115 to get him with Cleveland's lineup and 94-degree first-pitch heat.
How Lindy Sizes The Card
The discipline is the whole point: Lindy bets the price, sized to the risk. A +950 home run longshot gets a tenth of a unit, the standard plus-money home run plays in the +400 range get a quarter-to-half unit, and the totals he is more confident in get a full play. Nothing is staked the same, because the edge on a coin-flip total and a 10-1 dart are not the same.
That is also why shopping matters. On a longshot, the difference between DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM is often the entire edge, and on a total, a half-point or a few cents of juice swings the math. Pull up the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, let the Portfolio EV tool flag which of these prices actually beats the market, and take the best available number across every book.
Follow Lindy And Lock In The Tools
OddsShopper compares every sportsbook's number in one place and flags where the price is in your favor, which is the exact thing this card does by hand. You can try it free for 7 days, and code LINDY25 takes 25% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro.
Start your free trial Lindy posts his full card on Tails and breaks the slate down further on the daily live show.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Lindy's top MLB home run picks for Tuesday 6/30? Jac Caglianone (KC) to homer at +390 in the Kauffman heat is the play he likes most, with Konnor Griffin (PIT) at +950 as a tiny longshot dart in Philadelphia's wind.
What totals is Lindy betting today? Angels vs. Mariners under 7.5 (-114) behind Bryan Woo is the total he officially fired. Mets vs. Blue Jays over 8 (-102), with the Rogers Centre roof open, is a lean he likes but did not fire as a play.
Why is the Konnor Griffin home run bet so small? It is a +950 longshot, so Lindy sizes it at just 0.1 units. Plus-money home run darts hit rarely, so the stake stays tiny while the payoff stays large.
Where can I follow Lindy's full card? Lindy posts his complete card on Tails and walks through the slate on his daily MLB show on the OddsShopper YouTube channel.
Bet responsibly. Odds and lineups move; confirm the current number before you bet. 21+ where legal.
