Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins home run picks: this board was built for the Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins game on August 15, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
Kyle Schwarber at +310 headlines the Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +310 | Bet365 | 24.4% | 37 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | +450 | Bet365 | 18.2% | 32 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 34 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +567 | NoVig | 15.0% | 36 |
| Josh Bell (MIN) | +731 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.0% | 35 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | +753 | Underdog 🎁 | 11.7% | 35 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | +763 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 11.6% | 36 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | +837 | Underdog 🎁 | 10.7% | 30 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Bet $5+, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly.
Which of these prices is actually +EV?OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 15, 2026 · 03:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Target Field: park index 91.4 · wind 7 mph.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — 28% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes sliders, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +310 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +296 · Polymarket +301 · ProphetX +299 · NoVig +300
- Byron Buxton (MIN) — punishes sliders, and that is 38% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +450 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +373 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +382 · NoVig +376
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — 16% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes sliders, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +567 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +567
- Josh Bell (MIN) — punishes sliders, and that is 38% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +700 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +669
- Royce Lewis (MIN) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +550 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +488
- Alec Bohm (PHI) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +857 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +823 · NoVig +770
- Ryan Jeffers (MIN) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +669 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +669
- Trea Turner (PHI) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +755 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +696 · NoVig +700
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
