JJ Bleday at +334 headlines the Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Bleday (CIN) | +334 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 23.0% | 35 |
| Eugenio Suárez (CIN) | +358 | Polymarket 🎁 | 21.8% | 34 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 36 |
| Sal Stewart (CIN) | +410 | Circa | 19.6% | 35 |
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 35 |
| Owen Caissie (MIA) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 32 |
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 34 |
| Joe Mack (MIA) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 18 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 15, 2026 · 03:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Great American Ball Park: park index 103.3 · wind 4 mph.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) — 88° air · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +392 · NoVig +355
- Sal Stewart (CIN) — 88° air · punishes sliders, and that is 35% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +410 at Circa | exchanges: Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +397 · NoVig +376
- Eugenio Suárez (CIN) — 88° air. (model confidence A)
- books: best +358 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +348 · NoVig +344
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — 88° air · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +406 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +392 · NoVig +376
- Tyler Stephenson (CIN) — 88° air. (model confidence A)
- books: best +559 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +545
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — 88° air. (model confidence A)
- books: best +317 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +301 · ProphetX +309 · NoVig +317
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) — 88° air · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +406 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +382 · NoVig +388
- Owen Caissie (MIA) — 88° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +426 · NoVig +426
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- MisterMarkot on Tails likes Jesús Luzardo Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts (+117).
- JediModi on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+426). Bet now → DraftKings
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+533). Bet now → DraftKings
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+506). Bet now
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+115). Bet now
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Chase Burns Under 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (+135). Bet now → Polymarket
More from these experts on Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds. BGrebbs, JediModi, MisterMarkot, Rebel Mickie, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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