Junior Caminero (+406) and Pete Alonso (+425) lead tonight's Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 36 |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +425 | Kalshi | 19.0% | 36 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BAL) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 36 |
| Coby Mayo (BAL) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 36 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | +525 | Pinnacle | 16.0% | 2 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 36 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | +691 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 12.6% | 36 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | +698 | Polymarket 🎁 | 12.5% | 36 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 15, 2026 · 03:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Tropicana Field: park index 119.2 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +406 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +373 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +392 · NoVig +388
- Pete Alonso (BAL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 35% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +425 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +397 · NoVig +413
- Tyler O'Neill (BAL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 35% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +451 · NoVig +456
- Coby Mayo (BAL) — this starter's mix is the awkward kind for him. (model confidence B)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +456 · NoVig +426
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +698 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +637 · NoVig +669
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +857 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +841 · Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +804 · NoVig +700
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +488
- Christian Franklin (BAL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1074 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +1074 · Polymarket +866 · ProphetX +902 · NoVig +1011
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- DylansDailyLocks on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-142). Bet now
- Conormacpicks on Tails (#2 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Over 8 Total Runs (-112).
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (+150). Bet now
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes these plays:
- Cobi O'Connell on Tails (#10 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+388). Bet now → DraftKings
- JediModi on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+425). Bet now → TheScore
More from these experts on Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays. BGrebbs, Cobi O'Connell, Conormacpicks, JediModi post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
