Matt Olson (+338) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (+426) lead tonight's Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +338 | ProphetX | 22.8% | 37 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | +426 | ProphetX | 19.0% | 37 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 36 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 35 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 29 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 34 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 24 |
| Max Kepler (ARI) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 15, 2026 · 03:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Truist Park: park index 112.9 · wind 4 mph.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — 91° air · punishes sliders, and that is 30% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +466 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +466 · NoVig +426
- Matt Olson (ATL) — 91° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 41% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +338 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +331 · Polymarket +337 · ProphetX +338 · NoVig +326
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — 91° air · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +506 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +490 · NoVig +506
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — 91° air · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +426 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +426 · NoVig +388
- Max Kepler (AZ) — 91° air. (model confidence A)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +525
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) — 91° air · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +625 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +567
- Austin Riley (ATL) — 91° air. (model confidence B)
- books: best +519 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +456
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — 91° air. (model confidence A)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +666 · NoVig +669
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- MoneyBall Metrics on Tails likes Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-127). Bet now
- SEvansBets on Tails likes Lane Thomas Over 0.5 Total Bases (-110).
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Arizona/Atlanta Under 9 Total Runs.
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
- FOTP on Tails likes Chris Sale Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts (-141). Bet now
- Ziny Bets on Tails (#2 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Chris Sale Over 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (-150). Bet now
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves. CharlieChip, FOTP, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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