Yordan Alvarez at +301 headlines the Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +301 | Polymarket 🎁 | 24.9% | 36 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +397 | ProphetX | 20.1% | 36 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | +475 | Bet365 | 17.4% | 35 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 35 |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 27 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | +600 | Bet365 | 14.3% | 35 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 36 |
| Taylor Trammell (HOU) | +654 | Underdog 🎁 | 13.3% | 33 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 15, 2026 · 03:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Daikin Park: park index 114.6 · wind 8 mph.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — 12% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 49% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +301 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +296 · Polymarket +301 · ProphetX +289 · NoVig +270
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +475 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +466 · NoVig +441
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — 45% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +397 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +373 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +397 · NoVig +365
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 51% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +525
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +588 · NoVig +567
- Christian Walker (HOU) — 25% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +506 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +500 · NoVig +506
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) — 27% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 41% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +657 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +614
- Daulton Varsho (HOU) — 30% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +669 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +666 · NoVig +669
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+990). Bet now → Fanatics
- Cobi O'Connell on Tails (#10 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes José Altuve Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+1040). Bet now → FanDuel
- JediModi on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+265). Bet now → Bet365
More from these experts on Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. BGrebbs, Cobi O'Connell, JediModi post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
