Pete Crow-Armstrong (+376) and Jordan Walker (+410) lead tonight's St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | +376 | NoVig | 21.0% | 37 |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | +410 | Unibet | 19.6% | 36 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | +471 | NoVig | 17.5% | 36 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | +550 | PointsBet | 15.4% | 37 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 34 |
| Ivan Herrera (STL) | +575 | Unibet | 14.8% | 35 |
| Michael Conforto (CHC) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 36 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | +600 | PointsBet | 14.3% | 36 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 15, 2026 · 01:20 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Wrigley Field: park index 116.6 · wind 6 mph.
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 40% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +471 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +441 · NoVig +471
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 29% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +372 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +351 · Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +372 · NoVig +365
- Jordan Walker (STL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +392 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +351 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +392 · NoVig +376
- Michael Busch (CHC) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 29% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +545 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +545
- Iván Herrera (STL) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +542 at DraftKings | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +525
- Alec Burleson (STL) — punishes sliders, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +590 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +590
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — punishes sliders, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +830 at DraftKings | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · Polymarket +770 · ProphetX +784 · NoVig +770
- Everson Pereira (STL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +700
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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