Saturday turned on Joshua Baez (STL) launching three home runs, a swing the show was early to off the back of a bullish power projection nobody else was flagging yet, and that "be early to the party" instinct set the tone for Sunday. Lindy walked the whole board looking for the single fireable edge in each game. He found one almost everywhere, and passed cleanly on the spots the market had already priced right. Below is the full rundown of what got bet, why, and where the OddsShopper +EV screen independently flagged extra value on the same card.
Joshua Baez — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
The headliners are Jackson Holliday (BAL) over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs against a struggling Freddy Peralta and Sean Burke (CWS) over 5.5 strikeouts against a strikeout-heavy, injury-thinned Detroit lineup. Those are the two plays with the most conviction on the day. Around them sit a stack of smaller, math-driven bets in nearly every game. The full card, plus the dozen highest-edge prices the OddsShopper board surfaced on this same card, is below.
The Two The Whole Card Is Built Around
Start with the leadoff spot in Tampa. Jackson Holliday (BAL) is hitting first against Freddy Peralta (TB), a pitcher who has spent his recent starts flattening out his fastball and bleeding power to both sides of the plate. A leadoff hitter with real pop, three-plus projected trips, and thump behind him in Gunnar Henderson and the middle of the order is exactly the profile you want on an over. The market was slow to adjust to Holliday hitting atop the lineup, and that lag is the edge. This was the heaviest single-game swing of the morning.
The other anchor is a strikeout prop the show has hammered for over a month. Sean Burke (CWS) faces a Detroit lineup that leads with strikeouts and is missing bats it usually leans on, with Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter banged up and rookie Max Clark stuck down in the eight hole. Burke's swing-and-miss profile over the last month-plus has been genuinely elite; put it against a lineup this whiff-prone and over 5.5 punchouts is the cleanest number on the board. It went in at a half unit, the single most confident prop outside of Holliday.
Hold onto that Detroit lineup for a second, because the OddsShopper screen keeps coming back to it below.
Working The Rest Of The Board, Game By Game
From there it was a play in nearly every game, not by design but by following the value, and never forcing action into a number that was already fair (Gunnar Henderson's home run drew only a passing 2% edge and no bet as "eternally efficiently priced," and a Christian Scott strikeout look never got fired once the price came off the board):
- Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (Michael Soroka on the mound) against Bryce Elder and the Braves. Arizona has been on a tear since the deadline, with a top-tier strikeout-avoidance profile, a 179 ISO and a 107 wRC+ over that stretch, and getting them at plus money in what reads as a coin flip was too much value to pass. A 0.3-unit side.
- Boston Red Sox Moneyline at Pittsburgh. This one is bullpen math: a fully intact Boston pen against a Pittsburgh staff that is stretched thin, patching innings behind a bulk arm. A smaller play, but the number felt off.
- Lake Bachar (PIT) Under 8.5 Pitching Outs. Bachar is filling innings by necessity with the rotation shuffled, and he was capped at two innings his last time out on his heaviest pitch count of the month. Getting plus money to find out whether that cap holds is a sneaky quarter-unit under, and the weather in Pittsburgh only helps the case.
- Yankees–Blue Jays First Five Under 3.5 Runs. Slicing off the first five isolates the pitching and dodges the pens, and the Toronto offense has been, in a word, incompetent lately, with a brutal 62 wRC+ against left-handed pitching (the hand they draw here). A quarter-unit lean toward a quiet start.
- Dylan Cease (TOR) Over 18.5 Pitching Outs. Same game, same read: Cease is pitching like one of the best arms in the league right now, and a low-scoring script keeps him on the mound deep. Plus money on the over made it a better payout than the First Five look. A quarter.
- Matt McLain (CIN) Stolen Base. This is almost a home-run play disguised as a steal. Eury Pérez (MIA) is among the worst in baseball at holding runners, and if McLain reaches, he is running. A quarter-unit at a fair number.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) Home Run. San Diego has been on its own power heater against right-handed pitching since the deadline (a 114 wRC+, fifth-best in baseball, with a 161 ISO), and Merrill at a plus-money price was an instant bet even with a possible weather delay in play.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) Home Run. A longshot dart in the Cardinals–Cubs game against Edward Cabrera, who gives up power to everybody. It went in at big plus-money odds as a small-stake swing, the kind of price where one hit pays for a lot of misses.
Where The OddsShopper +EV Screen Agreed
Here is the part that ties the day together. Run the same card through the OddsShopper +EV screen, which prices every market to its no-vig fair number and shows you the best available book price, and the biggest edges cluster in the exact games above. Every price below is the best takeable number versus its de-vigged fair odds:
| Play | Fair | Best takeable | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Anderson (DET) Under 3.5 Hits Allowed | +107 | +130 (Bet365) | +11.1% |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) Under 0.5 Hits | +162 | +190 (Bet365) | +10.7% |
| Salvador Perez (KC) Under 0.5 Hits | +158 | +180 (Bet365) | +8.5% |
| Brett Bateman (TOR) Over 1.5 Total Bases | +179 | +200 (BetRivers) | +7.5% |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) Under 0.5 Total Bases | +128 | +145 (Fanatics) | +7.5% |
| Sean Burke (CWS) Under 4.5 Hits Allowed | +116 | +132 (Bet365) | +7.4% |
| Tommy White (ATH) Under 0.5 Hits | +161 | +180 (BetMGM) | +7.3% |
| Charles McAdoo (TOR) Under 0.5 Hits | +115 | +130 (Bet365) | +7.0% |
| Michael Massey (KC) Under 0.5 Hits | +158 | +175 (Bet365) | +6.6% |
| Max Clark (DET) Under 0.5 Hits | +116 | +130 (Bet365) | +6.5% |
| Kevin McGonigle (DET) Under 0.5 Hits | +163 | +180 (Bet365) | +6.5% |
| Bryan Woo (SEA) Under 17.5 Pitching Outs | +135 | +150 (Bet365) | +6.4% |
The single fattest edge on the whole board is Drew Anderson (DET) under 3.5 hits allowed at +130, an 11.1% edge against a fair price of +107, and it lives in Sean Burke's game. That is the same Detroit lineup Burke's strikeout over is attacking, and the screen backs the read from the other side: Max Clark under 0.5 hits (+130, a 6.5% edge) and Kevin McGonigle under 0.5 hits (+180, also 6.5%) are both flagged in that thinned-out order. When the tool and the eye test point at the same lineup, that is the spot to lean in.
The Toronto game shows the same overlap. Lindy faded the Blue Jays' offense with the First Five under, and the screen agrees where it counts: Ernie Clement under 0.5 hits is the second-biggest edge on the board at +190 (a 10.7% edge), with Charles McAdoo under 0.5 hits close behind at +130. The lone exception is Brett Bateman over 1.5 total bases at +200, proof the board is priced player-by-player, not team-by-team, so the smart move is to shop each number rather than paint a whole lineup with one brush.
Notice that nearly every edge is a plus-money number, and that the best price is a different book in almost every row: Bet365 on most, BetRivers on Bateman, Fanatics on Diaz, BetMGM on Tommy White. That is the entire game. The difference between the fair price and the best takeable price is the margin, and you only capture it by shopping. If you are grabbing a fresh sportsbook to hit these (BetRivers held the best number on Brett Bateman's over), start with BetRivers' current offer and how to claim it, and if a sign-up hands you a free bet, run it through the free bet converter to turn it into cash value instead of leaving money on the table.
Leans, Not Plays
A word of discipline, because the show is deliberate about the line between a bet and a lean. Byron Buxton (MIN) over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs against Andrew Painter looked tempting and stayed a lean, worth watching but not fired. A few pick'em darts (Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers 0.5 HRR props in the Baltimore game) get sprinkled in on the boards where the payouts justify a small dart, but they are not standalone bets. The point of separating them is the same point that runs through the whole card: process over any single result. This is a stretch that has to be graded over a long sample, so if you are not sure how to size a lean versus a play, our bankroll management guide is the place to start.
In Summary
A rare everything-is-a-play Sunday, and the value held up when the tool checked the work. The fired plays: Jackson Holliday (BAL) over 1.5 HRR and Sean Burke (CWS) over 5.5 strikeouts lead it, with Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox moneylines, Lake Bachar (PIT) under 8.5 outs, the Yankees–Blue Jays First Five under 3.5, Dylan Cease (TOR) over 18.5 outs, Matt McLain (CIN) stolen base, and home-run darts on Jackson Merrill (SD) and JJ Wetherholt (STL) filling out the card. The OddsShopper +EV board's biggest edge, Drew Anderson (DET) under 3.5 hits allowed at +130, lands right on top of the day's marquee strikeout spot, and every number worth having was a plus-money price at a different book. Shop it, price it against fair, and bet the edge, not the longest odds.
Want the fair-odds screen, no-vig pricing across every book, and the +EV board Lindy works off every morning? Code LINDY25 gets you 25% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro.
Watch The Video
Catch the full card walk-through, including the evening-window reads, on the Live With Lindy show: Watch on YouTube.
