MLB Betting Picks: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (June 12)

If you want MLB betting picks that start with the price and not the storyline, Eric "Lindy" Lindquist's Friday show is a clean look inside how a card actually gets built. On the OddsShopper channel he walked all 15 games on the June 12 board, and the throughline never changed: he is hunting numbers the market set too wide, passing on the games that do not offer one, and refusing to chase a name at a bad price. Below is a recap of his headline leans, why he liked them, and how to find the same +EV side yourself.

One note up front. Every odds figure here is the number Lindy quoted on the broadcast. Baseball lines move fast on lineup cards, weather, and bullpen days, so confirm the live price before you bet anything.

In Summary

• Process first. Lindy bets the price, not the team. He wants to beat the sharp books (Pinnacle, Circa) and clear a real margin, not just nip a number by a cent or two.
• Favorite play: Brewers right-hander Jacob Misiorowski over 8.5 strikeouts at +105 against the Phillies, a strikeout-heavy lineup he thinks the market keeps under-pricing.
• Best price on the board: Reds infielder Spencer Steer to homer at +461 on DraftKings in the Diamondbacks-Reds game, a number he called far too long for the matchup and the park.
• Second-favorite prop: a Cory Seager prop he fired for a half unit in the Rangers game, a steep lay price he still thought was too short.
• Discipline: he passed on plays he liked (a +350 home run lean) purely because the price was too short, and he flat-out skipped his least favorite games rather than force action.

How Lindy attacks an MLB slate

The reason this show is worth recapping is the method, not just the plays. A few principles run through every pick.

He treats expected value as the scoreboard. A bet is good because it is priced better than the real probability, judged over a full season, not because a result went his way. That is why he kept repeating prices instead of predictions. On a home run lean at +350 he said flatly that even though the hitter was one of the most likely guys on the board to go deep, the number was "just a little too short" on a slate full of nuclear hitting weather, so he wanted to wait for a better price. Liking a play and betting a play are two different decisions.

He shops for the best number and benchmarks against the sharp books. He noted he posts a DraftKings line on screen but actually fires the best available price across every book, and that he wants to beat Pinnacle and Circa before he trusts a number at all. On the shorter home run prices he said he generally needs 30 to 40 cents of value, because "if you get in the habit of betting everything that you've got 15, 20 cents there, and you're not perfect, you're running into major issues." That is the whole game in one sentence: thin edges get eaten by variance and vig.

He sizes to the edge. The bigger, higher-confidence reads get a full unit; the speculative longshots get a quarter or even a tenth of a unit. He talked about quarter-unit money-line dabs and half-unit prop fires, never the same stake on every play. If you want the framework behind that, our bankroll management guide covers sizing to your edge instead of flat-betting everything.

Lindy's favorite MLB betting picks for Friday

Jacob Misiorowski over 8.5 strikeouts (+105), Brewers at Phillies. This was his stated favorite prop of the day, and the reasoning was all about a market that has not caught up to the arm. He pointed to Misiorowski's elite swing-and-miss profile and a strikeout rate that climbs against left-handed bats, then ran through a Philadelphia lineup stacked with lefties who strike out at high clips. His read: a number that keeps getting hung at 8.5 with plus money is too generous for that combination. He set his ceiling at "anything inside of -120 is playable," which tells you exactly how much price he was willing to give up and still call it value.

Spencer Steer to hit a home run (+461 DraftKings), Diamondbacks at Reds. This was the standout price on the board. Lindy walked through Steer's batted-ball profile against right-handed pitching, the right-hander's tendency to give up damage, and Cincinnati's small park playing up for power in warm weather with the wind out. His conclusion was that the fair number sat far shorter than +461, so there was, in his words, "so much meat on this bone." He even talked himself into a bigger stake than he first planned. A long home run price is still a longshot, but the point is the gap between the offered price and the real chance.

A Cory Seager prop, Rangers. He called this his second-favorite play on the board and fired a half unit, saying the steep lay price was still short for how he projected Seager in that spot. His case was that even at a chalky number, the implied probability sat below his estimate, so the juice was worth paying.

More leans across the slate

• Jake Mangum stolen base (around +330, wants +350), Pirates vs Marlins. Sandy Alcantara does not hold runners well, and Mangum is the one Pittsburgh runner Lindy trusted to take a shot. He wanted a touch more price before firing a small stake.
• Padres at Orioles over 8.5 (-118), small piece. He liked the lefty power against the Baltimore starter and trimmed off a small position, while flagging rain as a real risk.
• Tampa Bay run line (even money), Rays vs Angels. He leaned the Rays to create runs in a multitude of ways against a young lefty on a short leash, taking the run line at an even number.
• Kansas City money line (quarter unit), Astros at Royals. A small dab on a team that has struggled, purely because he thought the game should be closer to a coin flip than the market made it.

He was also candid about what he was avoiding. He called the Tigers-Guardians game his least favorite on the board and the Cubs-Giants matchup another stay-away, citing low strikeout environments and lines he had no interest in. That is the selectivity that separates a card from a slate dump: most games simply do not offer a number worth betting.

How to find these +EV MLB bets yourself

Here is the Misiorowski prop as a worked example, because it shows why the price matters more than the pick.

At +105, the over implies roughly a 48.8% chance (100 divided by 205). Lindy's whole argument is that a strikeout-heavy profile facing a high-whiff lineup projects the over north of that, which is what makes it +EV. Now look at what line shopping does. If one book hangs the same over at -120, that price implies about 54.5% (120 divided by 220). Betting it at +105 instead of -120 moves your break-even down almost six full percentage points on the exact same wager. You did not handicap anything better. You just refused to take the worse number.

That is the part you can automate, and it is what we lean on most. The OddsShopper MLB odds screen lines up every book's price on the same market side by side, so you take the +105 instead of the -120 without clicking through ten apps. The tool scans every sportsbook in seconds, and the Portfolio EV view goes a step further to flag where the best available price beats the market's fair (de-vigged) probability, which is the math behind every play above. If you are new to that idea, our guide on how to find +EV bets breaks down the de-vig step in plain language.

New to OddsShopper? It scans 100+ sportsbooks and flags the bets priced in your favor, the exact thing Lindy does by hand on every prop above. You can try it free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro if you subscribe. Start your free trial.

A quick reality check before you tail any of this. These were Lindy's pre-game leans on one Friday card, not a promise of results. Even a well-priced +EV bet loses plenty in the short run, which is exactly why he sizes to his edge and waits for the number. Bet within your bankroll, shop for the best price, and treat closing-line value (more on that in our CLV explainer) as the sign you got down at a good number.

Watch the full show

Lindy walks all 15 games, including the ones he is passing on, in the full episode. It is the best way to see the price-first process in motion: MLB Picks for EVERY Game Friday 6/12 | Lindy's Leans Likes & Locks on the OddsShopper YouTube channel. He runs the MLB Research Show on Saturdays and Sundays for more, and posts his card on Tails so you can follow along: follow Lindy on Tails.

FAQ

Who is Lindy? Eric "Lindy" Lindquist is an MLB betting analyst who hosts "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" on the OddsShopper YouTube channel and runs a weekend MLB Research Show. He posts his daily card on Tails.

What was his favorite MLB pick for June 12? Brewers pitcher Jacob Misiorowski over 8.5 strikeouts at +105 against the Phillies. He said anything inside of -120 on that over was still playable.

Why did he pass on home run plays he liked? Price. On a +350 home run lean he liked the hitter but called the number too short for the spot, preferring to wait for a better price rather than pay up for a thin edge.

How should I treat these picks? As +EV leans, not certainties. Lindy believes each one is priced better than the true odds, but any single bet can lose, and lines move after a broadcast, so confirm the current number before betting.

How do I find these same +EV spots myself? Shop every book on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, and use the Portfolio EV view to see where the best available price beats the de-vigged fair probability. Try it free for 7 days; code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro.

Find the +EV side before the price moves

Lindy's edge is not a crystal ball. It is refusing to bet a bad number and pouncing when the market hangs a good one. OddsShopper does that grunt work for you: it compares every sportsbook on the same MLB market and flags where the price is actually in your favor, so you stop leaving the better number on the table. Try it free for 7 days, then code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro. Start your free trial.

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