San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks Home Run Picks Today (8/3)
Home runs win slates. Here's a quick look at the best long-ball bets for San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks before first pitch — and where each pays the most.
On the board for San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, Manny Machado, Ketel Marte, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ty France, Max Kepler are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
This is the full home run board for the game — the information, not a staff pick. We are not choosing your bet; the expert picks below are real plays you can tail, and our job is to get you the best number on whatever you back. "To hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market; take the best available price on the OddsShopper home run odds screen, since the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another — real money on a play you already like.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 34 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 34 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 33 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 34 |
| Ty France (SD) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 33 |
| Max Kepler (ARI) | +635 | Underdog 🎁 | 13.6% | 31 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +691 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 12.6% | 34 |
| Nolan Arenado (ARI) | +763 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 11.6% | 32 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Bet $5+, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly.
Which of these prices is actually +EV? OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 3, 2026 · 01:20 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Chase Field: park index 107.8 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Manny Machado (SD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 40% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +488
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 42% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +456
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 42% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +488
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 30% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +698 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +608 · NoVig +614
- Max Kepler (AZ) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +568 · NoVig +590
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — punishes sliders, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +900 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +794 · NoVig +852
- Ty France (SD) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +600 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +590
- Gavin Sheets (SD) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +900 at BetRivers | exchanges: ProphetX +764 · NoVig +809
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (+115). Bet now → BetMGM
- MoneyBadgerJake on Tails likes Under 5 Total Runs 5I (-125).
- MassMoneyline on Tails likes Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-115). Bet now
- Prophet on Tails likes Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-105). Bet now
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Michael King Over 3.5 Total Strikeouts (-264). Bet now → Polymarket
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails (#10 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Under 9.5 Total Runs (-134). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks. DFSnDonuts Picks, MoneyBadgerJake, Prophet post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks today? Corbin Carroll at +490 (Kalshi) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
