BMW Championship Odds

Who won the 2026 BMW Championship? Wyndham Clark, at 17-under 263 at Bellerive Country Club on Sunday, August 23, 2026, three shots clear of Patrick Cantlay with Rory McIlroy third. Kalshi's winner market settled that evening: Clark's contract, 75 cents going into the final round, paid $1, and the other 49 names went to zero. The Sunday price tape and the graded board are below.

Wyndham Clark won the 2026 BMW Championship on Sunday, August 23, closing at 17-under 263 at Bellerive Country Club for a three-shot PGA Tour win over Patrick Cantlay, with Rory McIlroy another shot back in third. Kalshi's winner market, which this page has tracked from a 50-man board on open to a three-name list by Saturday night, settled the way its final-round favorite said it would: Clark's contract, 75 cents at the final pre-round snapshot and still 77 at Sunday's 1 p.m. ET hourly close, finalized at one dollar, and the other 49 finalized at zero. That sentence makes the ending sound calm, and the ending was anything but. Clark shot an even-par 70 with three bogeys and no birdie until the 16th hole, and in the middle of Sunday afternoon his contract traded down to 42 cents while McIlroy's touched 50, the only hourly close of the final round when Clark's was not the top price on the board. This is the settled edition of the permanent BMW Championship board on this URL, and it owes you four grades: what the 75-cent price was actually worth once the lead started leaking, what happened to the 9.7-cent and 6.5-cent chase lines the pre-round board called the only live chase, how the frozen model panel's numbers held up against a full week of settlements, and how the Tour Championship bubble this tournament existed to draw finally resolved. Hold on to that 42-cent print; the whole grade lives inside it.

The Quick Answer

Wyndham Clark won the 2026 BMW Championship at 17-under 263, three shots clear of Patrick Cantlay (14 under) with Rory McIlroy third at 13 under. Kalshi's winner market settled Sunday evening: Clark's contract, priced at 75 cents going into the final round, finalized YES at $1.00, and all 49 others finalized at zero, McIlroy's 9.7-cent and Cantlay's 6.5-cent chase lines included. Clark shot an even-par 70 with no birdie until the par-3 16th, then birdied the last three holes to pull away. The full final leaderboard, the Sunday price tape hour by hour, the graded panel table, and the settled East Lake bubble are all below.

The settlement data on this page was fetched from Kalshi's finalized book at 12:53 a.m. Central on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, after all 50 winner contracts were marked. Prices quoted for Sunday are hourly candle closes from the exchange's own tape, not our recollection, and the model panel's numbers remain frozen at their August 17 pre-tournament run; moving them now would erase the only thing they exist to prove.

New to Kalshi golf markets? Start with our Kalshi golf picks hub, which covers how these winner contracts price and settle before you read a single board.

The Final Leaderboard

The tournament as it finished. Bellerive played as a par 70 all week, and Sunday's rounds are computed from each player's 54-hole and 72-hole totals.

Pos	Player	R1	R2	R3	R4	Total	Payout
1	Wyndham Clark	64	64	65	70	−17	$3,600,000
2	Patrick Cantlay	67	65	66	68	−14	$2,160,000
3	Rory McIlroy	64	69	65	69	−13	$1,360,000
T4	Chris Gotterup	64	67	68	69	−12	$856,667
T4	Gary Woodland	64	65	70	69	−12	$856,667
T4	Collin Morikawa	68	65	67	68	−12	$856,667
T7	Robert MacIntyre	68	69	68	65	−10	$667,500
T7	Maverick McNealy	67	66	69	68	−10	$667,500
9	Jacob Bridgeman	66	72	66	67	−9	$600,000
T10	Michael Brennan	69	65	69	69	−8	$540,000
T10	Sungjae Im	67	64	70	71	−8	$540,000
T12	Scottie Scheffler	72	65	68	68	−7	$426,250
T12	Akshay Bhatia	67	68	70	68	−7	$426,250
T12	Russell Henley	67	66	70	70	−7	$426,250
T12	Ryo Hisatsune	65	70	67	71	−7	$426,250

The row to read twice is the winner's, because an even-par 70 that wins by three is a strange scoreline until you see how it was built. Clark arrived at Bellerive's first tee with a five-shot lead and rounds of 64-64-65 behind him, and then played 15 holes of Sunday golf without a single birdie, dropping three shots along the way. The five-shot cushion, which the pre-round edition of this page called the honest reason for his 75-cent price, is the only reason there was still a tournament to win when his putter finally showed up. At the 232-yard par-3 16th he hit a 5-iron to just outside 15 feet and made it to take the lead back for good, then birdied the 17th and the 18th as well, three straight to close. Cantlay birdied his own last three holes to finish at 14 under; McIlroy's chase died with a bogey six at the 17th while he was still within range. A leader who goes birdie-less for 15 holes and still wins by three is a five-shot lead doing exactly what the market paid it to do, and the price tape of that afternoon is the next section, because it is the best thing on this page.

How The 75-Cent Favorite Cashed

The pre-round edition argued that 75 cents on a five-shot lead was a joint probability: a chaser's great round multiplied by a leader's mediocre one, two plausible numbers whose product is small. Sunday then staged precisely that scenario. Clark's round was the mediocre one, an even-par 70 with three bogeys. McIlroy's charge and Cantlay's closing 68 were the great ones. Both plausible things happened at once, and the favorite still won by three, which is the cleanest demonstration this page could have asked for of what a five-shot buffer is worth: it buys the leader one bad round against one great chase and still leaves change.

Here is the exchange's own record of the afternoon, hourly candle closes in Eastern time for the three contracts the pre-round board called live:

Sunday Hourly Close (ET)	Clark	McIlroy	Cantlay
1 P.m.	77¢	11¢	6.8¢
2 P.m.	74¢	14¢	3.2¢
3 P.m.	70¢	8¢	8.3¢
4 P.m.	50¢	23¢	25¢
5 P.m.	42¢	50¢	2.1¢
6 P.m.	$1.00 (settled)	0.1¢	0.1¢

The 5 p.m. row is the strangest hour of the tournament, and the one the opening paragraph promised. At that close McIlroy's contract, an 11-cent quote as late as Sunday's 1 p.m. hourly close, printed 50 while Clark's printed 42: for one hourly close, the man chasing by five at breakfast was the favorite on the exchange. The 4 p.m. row is nearly as strange, with the two chasers combining for 48 cents against the leader's 50, a coin flip between Clark and the field of two. And then the 6 p.m. column settles the argument the way golf markets always settle it, all at once: Clark's 5-iron at 16, two more birdies behind it, a McIlroy six at 17, and roughly 1.8 million contracts changing hands on Clark's contract alone in the final hour as 42 cents went to a dollar. Trading volume tells the same story from the other side: about 830,000 Clark contracts traded in the 5 p.m. hour, while the doubt was still live.

So was 75 cents the right price? Grade it by what it survived rather than how it felt. The pre-round page said the gap between 75 and 85 was "the honest size of the risk" because Clark had not yet played a round where the putts stopped dropping. That round arrived on schedule, the market repriced it in real time all the way down to 42, and the position still cashed. A price is not wrong because it wobbles; it is wrong if the wobble was the true state of the world and the settlement bailed it out. On the price history above, the 42-cent hour was real doubt about a real stumble, and the three closing birdies were not luck, they were the same putter that shot 64-64-65 showing up an hour late. Seventy-five cents asked the question "does a five-shot lead survive one bad round," and the answer, established at roughly 4:57 p.m. Central when the exchange finalized all 50 contracts, was yes.

Grading The Chase Lines

Going into Sunday, the board quoted exactly two live chase prices, McIlroy at 9.7 cents and Cantlay at 6.5, and the pre-round edition of this page leaned toward the market's ordering: McIlroy dearer because a five-shot chase needs a round in the low 60s, and he has more of those in him. The finish graded that lean honestly, which is to say against it. Cantlay, the steadier profile the market priced cheaper, shot the lower Sunday round, 68 to McIlroy's 69, birdied his last three holes, and finished a shot ahead of him. The 3.2-cent gap the page called "wider than the gap between the two players" turned out to be exactly that: the cheaper man outfinished the dearer one.

Both contracts still settled at zero, and that part of the grade matters just as much. McIlroy got everything a 9.7-cent buyer could ask for, a leader playing the front nine over par and a real charge, and his own words after the round tell you where it stopped: "I always felt like I needed to just get my nose ahead to really try to put the pressure on Wyndham, and I couldn't." The price history shows his contract at 50 cents at the 5 p.m. close; the scorecard shows the bogey at 17 that ended it. That is what buying a single-digit chase line is: you are paying for the scenario, and the scenario can arrive in full and still not pay. Anyone who traded the McIlroy contract during Sunday's surge experienced both halves of that sentence within 90 minutes.

The consolation prizes went to the placement markets, and that is not a small footnote. On Kalshi's Top-5 board, six contracts settled YES: Clark, Cantlay, McIlroy, and all three of the 12-under group, Gotterup, Woodland, and Morikawa. Woodland's Top-5 contract was quoted at 55/58 cents on Saturday night while his winner contract sat at 1.7; the winner line died and the placement line cashed, precisely the split the pre-round page said those two prices were describing. The BMW Championship Top 5 and Top 10 odds page carries that board's own settled record.

Every Seat's Number, The Final Grade

Five of the panel's eight seats priced this field on August 17, before a shot was hit, each seeing the same fetched context card and never a market price. Those numbers have sat frozen on this page through six editions so that this table could exist: the model column, the price the market reached by the final pre-round snapshot, and what actually settled. The table below carries the panel's top-priced names; the full field-wide distribution is graded row by row on the public scoreboard.

Player	Panel median (8/17)	Final pre-round price	Settled
Scottie Scheffler	30%	0.1¢	No — T12, −7
Xander Schauffele	7%	0.1¢	No
Rory McIlroy	6%	9.7¢	No — 3rd, −13
Ludvig Åberg	6%	0.1¢	No
Cameron Young	5%	0.1¢	No
Sam Burns	4%	0.1¢	No
Matt Fitzpatrick	4%	0.1¢	No
Viktor Hovland	4%	0.1¢	No
Patrick Cantlay	3%	6.5¢	No — 2nd, −14
Collin Morikawa	3%	1.6¢	No — T4, −12
Tommy Fleetwood	3%	0.1¢	No
Wyndham Clark	2%	75.0¢	YES — Won, −17
Hideki Matsuyama	2%	0.1¢	No
Justin Thomas	2%	0.1¢	No
Russell Henley	2%	0.1¢	No
Chris Gotterup	1%	3.0¢	No — T4, −12
Gary Woodland	1%	1.7¢	No — T4, −12
The Field (22 Players)	6%	~2.5¢	No

The blend is the seat median, not the mean, so a single low outlier cannot drag the number. Every number here gets graded in public against real settlements on the full graded scoreboard.

Seat records to date: Claude Fable 82% on 576 graded calls · Claude Opus 83% on 646 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 82% on 624 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,437 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,462 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.

The final grade is the one this page has been promising all week, and it is not kind. The panel's 30 percent on Scheffler, defended on this page for three days as the week's central market-versus-model gap, settles as the week's loudest miss: he tied for 12th at 7 under, ten shots out of the playoff he never threatened. The diagnostic stands as written on Wednesday — the context card led with his St. Jude win and his defending-champion status, and every seat compounded form, fit, and history without discounting an opening 72. But the fairest grade cuts both ways, and the market's own opening line deserves the same treatment: Kalshi priced Clark at 2.5 cents the night before the first round, and the panel's median had him at 2 percent. Nobody, silicon or crowd, saw the winner coming. The difference is structural, not intellectual: the market got to reprice on every shot, riding Clark from 2.5 cents to 31 after two rounds to 75 by Sunday, while the panel's numbers were deliberately frozen so they could be graded. A live book will beat a frozen model at a golf tournament every single week. What the freeze buys is this table, and the honesty of the two names the panel can still point to: McIlroy at 6 percent, its highest-ranked name to finish inside the top three, and the 22-man field bucket at a combined 6 percent, closer to the settled zero than the near-17 cents this page recorded the market holding on those same names at Wednesday's open.

The East Lake Line, Resolved

The other stake this tournament carried, the one only the BMW plays for, was the top-30 line to the Tour Championship, and the final round drew it in ink. The table below grades every bubble case the pre-round editions of this page tracked, from their entering rank to their fate.

Entered BMW At	Player	BMW finish	Final rank	East Lake?
5th	Wyndham Clark	Won, −17	3rd	In
28th	Kurt Kitayama	T33, −2 at 54 holes	Outside the 30	Out — season over
29th	Bud Cauley	T43, E at 54 holes	Outside the 30	Out — season over
30th	Rickie Fowler	T35, −1 at 54 holes	Outside the 30	Out — season over
31st	Gary Woodland	T4, −12	18th	In
40th	Sungjae Im	T10, −8	Outside the 30	Out — season over
43rd	Patrick Cantlay	2nd, −14	19th	In
44th	Justin Thomas	T15, −5 at 54 holes	Outside the 30	Out — season over

54-hole positions are as recorded by the pre-round edition's bubble tracker (via Yahoo Sports); final ranks are from the PGA Tour's finalized standings.

Woodland is the resolution the whole week was building toward on this page, and the happiest sentence in this edition. He entered the tournament 31st in points, two points outside the line, went 64-65 to lead the field early, survived a Saturday 70 that cut his winner contract from 12 cents to 1.7, and closed with a 69 to tie for fourth. The finish moved him from 31st to 18th in the standings and into his first Tour Championship since 2019. The 2.6 million open positions on his winner contract settled at zero; the season they were really tracking settled at yes. Cantlay's climb is the bigger number, 43rd to 19th, a 24-spot jump on the strength of a runner-up finish, and it validated the one bubble read the market nailed all week: his Top-5 contract at 82 cents on Saturday night was the market pricing the finish his points position demanded, and he delivered it with those three closing birdies.

The exits are the colder half of the ledger. Kitayama, Cauley, and Fowler, ranked 28th through 30th on nearly identical point totals coming in, all played themselves out, and all three seasons are over. Robert MacIntyre's closing 65 vaulted him into the field at 25th. And Sungjae Im is the line's cruelest grade: Saturday's bubble tracker projected him inside after 54 holes at 9 under, and a Sunday 71 dropped him to a tie for 10th, a good week by any scorecard that still left him outside the 30. His Top-20 contract settled YES at Bellerive while his season ended; the placement markets pay finishes, and the points list pays seasons, and Sunday was a reminder that those are two different ledgers. Ryan Fox claimed the 30th and final spot. Clark, who entered the week 5th, moved to 3rd, exactly where the pre-round edition projected a win would put him. The full 30-man field and the reset points race live on our FedEx Cup and Tour Championship odds board, and the companion BMW Championship bubble page has its own settled edition of the top-50 line that built this field in the first place.

The Triggers, Graded

Three concrete, checkable triggers for the final 18 holes closed the pre-round analysis, so check them. All three fired.

"Clark's first bogey." The page said a bogey in the first six holes with a chaser under par would reprice a five-shot lead into something much narrower. Clark made three bogeys, played the front nine over par, and the price history above shows the repricing: 77 cents at 1 p.m. to 42 by the 5 p.m. close.

"A chaser turning in 31." The page said this was the scenario the 9.7 and 6.5-cent contracts were bought for, and that anything short of it would consolidate the board toward 85-plus on Clark. The charge arrived, McIlroy's contract jumped from an 11-cent afternoon quote to 50 at the 5 p.m. close, and the consolidation never came until the very end, when it came all at once at a dollar.

"The bubble's last point." The page flagged Kitayama, Fowler, and Cauley projecting 31st through 33rd on a line separated by single points. All three finished outside it, displaced not by one Sunday 65 but by three players coming from further back: Woodland, Cantlay, and MacIntyre.

A prediction page should be willing to be graded on its mechanism, not just its number, and this is the part of the week the mechanism got right: the things the page said would move the board are exactly the things that moved it. What it could not tell you in advance was which side of the joint probability would blink last; that answer arrived one putt at a time, starting at the 16th.

A Worked Example: Woodland's Two Contracts

If you keep one artifact from this settled board, keep this pair of numbers, because it is the whole placement-versus-winner lesson worked end to end. On Saturday night Gary Woodland was quoted at 1.7 cents to win the BMW Championship and 55/58 cents to finish top five. Same golfer, same round ahead of him. The winner contract asked him to make up six shots on Clark in 18 holes; the placement contract asked him to hold roughly still against the group behind him. He shot 69, precisely a hold-roughly-still round. The 1.7-cent contract settled at zero, the 55-cent contract settled at a dollar, and his season-defining outcome, East Lake, keyed off the finish, not the trophy. Two prices, one round of golf, opposite settlements, both correct. That is not a market being confused; that is a market pricing two different questions, and the discipline of knowing which question your contest actually pays is the most transferable skill on this page.

What The Settled Board Teaches A Golf DFS Player

Every edition of this page carried three lessons for DFS and one-and-done players, and settlement sharpened each into a receipt.

Start with ownership, because it now has a final number. Scheffler's winner contract carried 7.45 million contracts of lifetime volume, the third-most on the board, most of it bought at 20-plus cents; it settled at zero from an 0.1-cent close, and roughly 5.4 million positions were still open at the end. Clark's contract did 8.98 million lifetime, the most of any player, and more than half of it traded on Sunday alone: the Saturday-night edition of this page recorded his lifetime volume at 4.29 million, and settlement closed it at 8.98. The field bought the name and held the name; the winner was bought by people watching the scoreboard. On a DFS slate the same money shows up as ownership percentage, and the same tax gets charged: the most-owned golfer is the one everyone decided on before the tournament started. The counter-move survived settlement untouched, too. The three players atop the leaderboard after 36 holes, Clark, Woodland, and Spaun, were a combined 4.6 cents of win equity the night before the tournament began, and two of the three still finished top eight; when a board is flat below the favorite, the winner tends to come from the part of the map nobody is standing on, and the Stokastic PGA Sims exist precisely because a full finish distribution finds those names before the scoreboard announces them. And the Woodland worked example above now has the whole tier board behind it: six Top-5 contracts settled YES because a three-way tie for fourth counts everyone in it, 11 Top-10s, and 21 Top-20s, including Scheffler's, whose 80-cent Saturday quote was the one live asset his week had left and the one that paid. Building tournament rosters off win equity when the contest rewards placement remains the most common mistake this page exists to correct.

The Market

Kalshi listed one winner contract for each of the 50 players who qualified for the BMW Championship, the second of three FedEx Cup playoff events, played with no cut for a $20 million purse at Bellerive Country Club in Town and Country, Missouri. Each contract resolves YES only if its player wins the tournament outright; all 50 were finalized on Sunday evening, August 23, within about an hour of Clark's final putt, with his contract marked at $1.00 and the other 49 at zero.

The final ledger is worth recording, because this became one of the larger golf markets Kalshi has run. The 50 contracts traded 87.1 million contracts lifetime, with 62.7 million positions still open at settlement, against the 15.5 million lifetime this page called "a mature market" the night before the first round. The tournament nearly sextupled its own market in four days. Clark's 8.98 million lifetime contracts led the board, McIlroy's 8.87 million sat just behind, and Scheffler's 7.45 million, most of it underwater from opening night, was the monument to the week's biggest repricing. Sportsbooks hung outright numbers on this same field all week, and the live odds screen is where you shop book prices against the exchange's for next week's field before taking either side of a number; if you want expert sides rather than the exchange's raw math, the free expert picks today page carries our golf card every tournament week. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. It is This page now stands as the settled record of the 2026 market and rebuilds on this URL when the 2027 BMW Championship board lists.

The Pre-Final-Round Board: The Frozen Record

This section preserves the key analysis of the final pre-round edition of this page, published the morning of August 23 before a shot was hit, condensed for length but with every price, position, and judgment left exactly as written. It is kept as a record so the grades above can be checked against what the page actually said when the outcome was unknown.

The Board, Sunday Morning

The top of the winner board, quoted from the live order book after the third round. The cent price is the last trade and the market's implied win probability; the "Sat. 2:37" column is where this page quoted the same contract in the middle of Saturday's round; the "8/19" column is the night before the first round; the panel column is the median of five price-blind models, frozen at the August 17 run, because a grade that moves with the scoreboard is not a grade.

Player	Kalshi price	Sat. 2:37	8/19 price	Moneyline	Position	Panel (8/17)
Wyndham Clark	75.0¢	48.0¢	2.5¢	−300	1st, −17	2%
Rory McIlroy	9.7¢	5.2¢	5.5¢	+931	T2, −12	6%
Patrick Cantlay	6.5¢	6.1¢	2.6¢	+1438	T2, −12	3%
Chris Gotterup	3.0¢	12.0¢	2.7¢	+3233	T4, −11	1%
Gary Woodland	1.7¢	12.0¢	0.7¢	+5782	T4, −11	1%
Collin Morikawa	1.6¢	4.3¢	2.2¢	+6150	6th, −10	3%
Sungjae Im	0.4¢	3.2¢	1.1¢	+24900	7th, −9	field
Maverick McNealy	0.2¢	1.3¢	1.4¢	+49900	T8, −8	1%
J.J. Spaun	0.1¢	3.4¢	1.4¢	+99900	T8, −8	field
Eric Cole	0.1¢	0.9¢	0.4¢	+99900	T8, −8	field
Scottie Scheffler	0.1¢	0.7¢	23.0¢	+99900	T15, −5	30%
The Other 39 Players	0.1¢ each			—

One number frames this board the way a different number framed each of the last two. On August 19 the 50 contracts summed to 108.5 cents. Saturday afternoon, with the leaders mid-round, they summed to 102.6, and 34 of the 50 sat at a tenth of a cent. Saturday night they sum to 102.3, and 42 of the 50 are at the floor. The market has spent three days collapsing a 50-man lottery into a list, and the list now has three names on it: Clark, and the two men who need to make up five shots on him.

What A 75-Cent Favorite Is Actually Worth

Start with the arithmetic the market is doing. Fifty contracts summing to 102.3 cents means Clark's 75 is roughly 73 percent of the book once the overround comes out, and the other 49 players share the remaining 27. The market is saying a five-shot lead through 54 holes, held by a player who answered Saturday's opening double bogey with seven under across his last 17 holes, converts roughly three times in four.

Is that generous or stingy? Consider what the chase requires. McIlroy or Cantlay has to beat Clark by five shots on Sunday, or by six to win outright without a playoff. If Clark shoots an even-par 70, the chaser needs a 65, which is exactly what McIlroy shot on Saturday and what Clark has matched or bettered every day this week, so it is not a fantasy number at Bellerive. But the chaser also needs Clark not to shoot the 65 again, and the price is a joint probability: a great round from one of two men multiplied by a mediocre one from the leader. Multiply a plausible number by a plausible number and you get a small number. Nine-point-seven cents on McIlroy and 6.5 on Cantlay is the market's version of that multiplication, and I do not think either is wrong by much.

Where I would push back on 75 is the shape of the lead, not its size. Clark's week has been built on 64-64-65 and a single double bogey that he immediately erased. He has not yet played a round at Bellerive where the putts stopped dropping, and a final round with a five-shot cushion is the round where leaders play for the middle of greens and the birdies dry up. A Sunday 70 from Clark is likelier than his three scorecards suggest. That does not make 75 a fade; it makes the gap between 75 and, say, 85 the honest size of the risk.

Two Chasers, One Price Gap

McIlroy at 9.7 cents is the contract the market has chased all evening. He shot the low round of the day alongside Clark, his 64 on Thursday was a share of the lead, and the exchange's Top-5 board has him at 81/85 cents to finish inside the top five, the same neighbourhood as Cantlay's 82/83. Both men have won this playoff and a FedEx Cup before, so the three-cent gap is not a résumé gap. The market is paying for McIlroy's ceiling and the liquidity his name brings; Cantlay's steadier scoring profile is priced cheaper at the same score.

Cantlay at 6.5 cents is the quieter contract and the one I keep weighing. He has gone 67-65-66 without a round above 67, he is tied with McIlroy at the same score with the same five shots to make up, and the market has him at two-thirds of McIlroy's price. If you believe a five-shot deficit is closed by the steadier player rather than the more explosive one, 6.5 is the better number. If you believe it is closed by the one capable of a 63, McIlroy's 9.7 is. I lean toward the market's ordering here, because a five-shot chase needs a round in the low 60s and McIlroy has more of those in him, but the gap between the two prices is wider than the gap between the two players. That is the one soft spot on the top of the board, and it is a small one.

Settlement Timeline

• August 23, 2026 — Wyndham Clark won the BMW Championship at 17-under 263; Kalshi finalized all 50 winner contracts at approximately 4:57 p.m. Central, within an hour of the final putt.

• August 23, 2026, Evening — the top 30 in FedEx Cup points was finalized: those players advanced to the Tour Championship at East Lake, and the other 20 seasons ended at Bellerive.

• August 2027 — the next BMW Championship; this page rebuilds on the same URL with the new field and board.

• Settlement data above was fetched from Kalshi's finalized book on August 25, 2026. The frozen-record section preserves the final pre-round edition; the panel's numbers were graded exactly as frozen on August 17.

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The Bottom Line

The 2026 BMW Championship settled with Wyndham Clark at a dollar, 49 names at zero, and one number that will outlive the week: 42 cents, the price of the eventual champion at the 5 p.m. hourly close of the final round. Every grade on this page runs through that print. It is why 75 cents was a fair Sunday price rather than a coronation, because the market knew a birdie-less leader was a live question and said so with real money. It is why the chase lines were fair and still worthless, because the scenario they priced arrived in full and lost anyway. And it is why the frozen panel's table reads so brutally, because a model that cannot watch the leader's putter for 15 holes is not playing the same game as a book that can. The market's edge over the models this week was not intelligence; it was a pulse. Woodland got East Lake, Cantlay got 24 spots and a runner-up check, Kitayama, Fowler, and Cauley got winters that started in August, and the 30 names that survived Bellerive now play for $40 million at the Tour Championship, where our FedEx Cup odds board picks the story up. This page stands as the settled 2026 record and rebuilds here when the 2027 BMW board lists.

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