Did Dan Bilzerian win? No. Randy Fine, the incumbent, won the Republican primary in Florida's 6th District on August 18, 2026, taking 57.6% of the vote to Bilzerian's 18.9%. Kalshi had Bilzerian at one cent to win going in, and that call was perfect.
The market's other call was not. Kalshi's side markets on Bilzerian's vote share priced a low-single-digit finish, and the count came in at roughly triple that. Six of the ten rungs quoted on election eve cashed, one of them paying 11-for-1 on a contract the market treated as a lottery ticket. The graded ladder is below.
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Why Was Bilzerian One Cent To Win?
Because the winner market had structure to lean on, and none of it moved. Fine had won this seat in April 2025 with 57% of the vote, held a fundraising lead north of four million dollars, and Bilzerian loaned his own campaign $1 million while still trailing in cash. Followers are not voters: an Instagram audience in the tens of millions is mostly people who cannot vote in a closed Florida primary, while the people who do show up are local and reliable. Six names sat on Kalshi's nominee board and only Fine carried a real price, at 98¢; every other name cost a penny or less.
Even so, more than three quarters of the final day's trading on this race ran through the Bilzerian winner contract. That was attention, not information. The live question sat next door, in the markets on how many votes he would draw.
What Was The Market Actually Measuring?
Not a celebrity long shot. Bilzerian said from the start that he was challenging Fine, the only Jewish Republican in Florida's congressional delegation, because Fine is Jewish, per Jewish Insider's reporting. In the closing days, his campaign circulated AI-made videos that put horns on Fine's head, called him "Shylock," and played Hitler footage over the question "Should we revisit that Austrian painter's opinions?" A Combat Antisemitism Movement analysis of 657 campaign-account posts found that a third contained antisemitic rhetoric, including Holocaust denial.
The condemnation crossed party lines, which almost nothing does. House Speaker Mike Johnson said antisemitism and "outward hatred of Jewish communities have no place in our politics," and Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the campaign "blatantly antisemitic" (ABC News). Fine's own answer, naming the Hitler imagery directly: "If this appeals to you, I don't want your vote."
So the vote-share ladder was pricing a question most coverage only argues about: when a campaign runs on open antisemitism in 2026, how many primary votes does it actually draw?
What Did The Ladder Say Before The Vote?
Kalshi listed one yes/no contract for each threshold of Bilzerian's share, from "at least 2.5%" up to "at least 45%," and a contract's price in cents reads roughly as the percent chance he clears that line. When we first tracked the board, clearing 7.5% cost 39¢ and clearing 20% cost 8¢. By election eve those were 23-26¢ and 6-7¢.
The slide never reversed, and it tracked the exact weeks in which the campaign's antisemitism went from subtext to national scandal. Whether the scandal was costing him votes, winning him a protest bloc, or changing nothing was what the count would decide. By the evening of August 17, the market's central case was a low-to-mid single-digit finish, with everything from 15% up priced as shock territory.
How Every Rung Settled
Polls closed at 7 p.m. ET on August 18, and the Associated Press called the race within the hour. Fine took 57.6% and 51,109 votes in Florida's official count, within a point of his April 2025 share. Bilzerian finished second at 18.9%, or 16,776 votes, in the official four-candidate result. Here is the ladder as it was quoted on election eve, and how each rung settled.
| Bilzerian's FL-06 Vote Share | Buyers Offered (Aug 17) | Sellers Asked (Aug 17) | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| At Least 2.5% | 81¢ | 85¢ | ✓ Yes |
| At Least 7.5% | 23¢ | 26¢ | ✓ Yes |
| At Least 10% | 23¢ | 25¢ | ✓ Yes |
| At Least 12.5% | 21¢ | 22¢ | ✓ Yes |
| At Least 15% | 13¢ | 14¢ | ✓ Yes |
| At Least 17.5% | 8¢ | 9¢ | ✓ Yes |
| At Least 20% | 6¢ | 7¢ | ✗ No |
| At Least 25% | 4¢ | 5¢ | ✗ No |
| At Least 30% | 3¢ | 4¢ | ✗ No |
| At Least 35% | 1¢ | 2¢ | ✗ No |
| At Least 40% | not quoted | not quoted | ✗ No |
| At Least 45% | not quoted | not quoted | ✗ No |
Election-eve quotes captured the evening of August 17, 2026, the last full session before the vote; settlement results are Kalshi's finalized outcomes, confirmed August 29, 2026. Kalshi also listed rungs at 1%, 4%, 5% and 6% that we did not quote (the 5% market was too wide to call a price); all of them settled Yes.
The row to sit with is "at least 17.5%." Sellers asked 9¢ for it on election eve, and it settled Yes. A trader who paid that collected a dollar, an 11-for-1 return in a race whose headline outcome was never in doubt. One rung higher, "at least 20%" missed by about a point of vote share and expired worthless. Being directionally right and being paid are different achievements.
Why Did The Market Miss By That Much?
The settled ledger says what happened, not why. After the Hitler footage, the "Shylock" videos, and the bipartisan condemnations, nearly one in five Republican primary voters in this district still marked Bilzerian's name. But Aaron Baker, an unknown with none of the coverage, drew 13.6%, and Charles Gambaro 9.8%: a combined 23.4% of the district voted against Fine with no Hitler footage involved at all.
Against that baseline the read is narrower and stranger. Bilzerian cleared the generic-challenger floor by about five points, so what the ladder underpriced may have been the district's protest floor as much as the campaign itself. Either way, the winner market had incumbency, cash and closed-primary math to price against and never moved a cent, while the ladder had no precedent and broke. The buyers paying single-digit cents for the high rungs were the only participants on this board who read the count right.
What Is Left To Trade On FL-06?
Kalshi's general-election board for the seat is live, pricing the Republican side around 96¢ in a thin early market as of August 29, with Fine listed against Democrat Eric Yonce for November. The question this ladder measured keeps getting asked: the James Fishback Florida governor ladder called its loser's share to within half a point on the same night this one missed three-fold, which is the range these instruments live in. The next board that has to price a winner and a vote count at once starts from this record. *Election-eve prices as of August 17, 2026 (evening), from Kalshi's FL-06 Republican primary markets, the last full session before the vote. Result figures from Florida's official count; settlement outcomes and the general-election price re-fetched from Kalshi August 29, 2026. *
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