James Fishback Odds: Kalshi Prices A 10-15% Primary Finish
Prices and volume as of August 11, 2026, 6:09 p.m. ET, fetched from Kalshi's public market data. This page rebuilds in place through primary week; after August 18 it becomes the record of what the market priced versus the certified result.
The Quick Answer
The James Fishback odds picture on Kalshi splits into two markets. His contract to win the Florida Republican governor nomination trades at 1.4/1.5 cents (roughly +6600 in moneyline terms) a week before the August 18, 2026 primary. The live handicapping is happening one board over, on his vote-share ladder, where the most likely band for his final number is 10% to 15%, about a one-in-three chance, and the even-money line by live quotes sits between 13% and 14%. The full 15-rung ladder, the band-by-band arithmetic, and the thin rungs whose prints deserve distrust are below.
Two Different Fishback Questions
A market can be done with a candidate and still be arguing about him, and that is exactly where Kalshi's Florida Republican primary board (KXGOVFLNOMR-26) sits with James Fishback. The win question is priced to the tenth of a cent: 1.4 bid, 1.5 ask, about +6600 as a moneyline, down a long slide from the contract's 54-cent intraday high on December 2, 2025, through 9.1 cents on June 1, 3.8 cents on July 20, and 2.2 cents on August 3. The Azoria founder, who filed for governor on November 24, 2025, remains the most-traded name on the board while he does it: nearly 15 million lifetime contracts, including about 516,000 in the last 24 hours, on a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange where the price is the market's probability estimate and volume is just the running count of hands changed.
So what is all that live flow still arguing about? Not whether. How much. Kalshi lists a second market on Fishback alone, a vote-share ladder titled "James Fishback vote percent," and that board is where searches for Fishback polls and Fishback odds actually get answered. A ladder is the market's version of a polling average, updated continuously by traders with money on the line, and unlike a poll it publishes a price for every threshold from 1% to 30%. The even-money line it draws, the number the market would split a coin flip over, is the figure to hold onto, and we will get to it after the board itself.
The Favorite, In One Paragraph
The reason the win market is quiet: Byron Donalds trades at 98.5/98.7 cents, about -7600 as a moneyline at the ask, and Florida's 2005 abolition of primary runoffs means a plurality on August 18 is enough to take the nomination outright. That is the whole context this page needs. The candidate-by-candidate handicapping, the field table, and what our six-model AI panel makes of the race live on the Florida Republican governor model-verdict board, and the national picture sits on the 2026 governor races odds hub.
The Full Vote-Share Ladder On Kalshi
Every rung below is an "at least" contract: an "at least 10%" position settles YES if Fishback's certified primary share reaches 10% or higher. Prices in cents track implied probability, so a 63-cent rung is a 63% chance in the market's eyes. The full mechanics of reading one of these boards, including why the rungs must descend as the threshold climbs, are in our ladder-reading guide.
| Fishback Vote Share | Price (bid/ask) | Lifetime contracts |
|---|---|---|
| At Least 1% | 99.9¢ / 100.0¢ | 919,736 |
| At Least 3% | 98.2¢ / 99.8¢ | 157,515 |
| At Least 5% | 94.2¢ / 94.8¢ | 104,717 |
| At Least 6% | 89.0¢ / 90.0¢ | 11,972 |
| At Least 7% | 87.0¢ / 90.0¢ | 8,513 |
| At Least 8% | 80.0¢ / 82.0¢ | 603 |
| At Least 9% | 74.0¢ / 78.0¢ | 3,714 |
| At Least 10% | 63.0¢ / 65.0¢ | 311,461 |
| At Least 11% | 60.0¢ / 62.0¢ | 6,290 |
| At Least 12% | 53.0¢ / 56.0¢ | 1,807 |
| At Least 13% | 53.0¢ / 56.0¢ | 1,985 |
| At Least 14% | 31.0¢ / 34.0¢ | 714 |
| At Least 15% | 29.0¢ / 32.0¢ | 174,022 |
| At Least 20% | 13.0¢ / 14.0¢ | 700,034 |
| At Least 30% | 2.8¢ / 3.3¢ | 682,697 |
The row I keep coming back to is the cliff between 13% and 14%. The board holds in the 50s and low 60s all the way through "at least 13%," then drops more than 20 points in a single step, to 31/34 on "at least 14%." That step is the market's even-money line snapping into place: better than a coin flip that Fishback clears 13%, a clear underdog to reach 14%. Where it lands exactly, we can compute.
A Worked Example: The Ladder In Plain English
Because the rungs are cumulative, subtracting one from the next turns the ladder into an outcome distribution. Take the midpoint of each seasoned rung's bid and ask and the arithmetic runs like this: "at least 5%" at 94.5 cents minus "at least 10%" at 64 cents means the market puts about a 30% chance on a finish between 5% and 10%. Do that down the whole board and the picture assembles itself.
| Final Vote Share | Implied chance |
|---|---|
| Under 5% | ~6% |
| 5% To 10% | ~30% |
| 10% To 15% | ~34% |
| 15% To 20% | ~17% |
| 20% To 30% | ~10% |
| 30% Or Higher | ~3% |
The bands sum to roughly 100% because they are one candidate's mutually exclusive outcomes, which is itself a health check on the board. The single most likely band is a finish between 10% and 15%, at about a one-in-three chance, with "at least 10%" trading near 63/65 cents (about -180 in moneyline terms) and "at least 15%" near 29/32 (roughly +225). By live quotes the even-money line sits between 13% and 14%, with one honest caveat: the 11% through 14% rungs are a day old and thin, and the deep, seasoned rungs alone (10% at 63/65 cents, 15% at 29/32) would interpolate the midpoint closer to 12%. And the December callback is the point: the same market that once printed Fishback at 54 cents to win now spends its energy on whether he clears 12% of the vote. The tails still trade, too. "At least 20%" at 13/14 cents (about +615 at the ask) and "at least 30%" at roughly 3 cents (+2900 at the ask) have quietly become two of the ladder's three most-traded rungs, at 700,000 and 683,000 lifetime contracts, the familiar signature of longshot-priced contracts collecting small-stake and hedge-shaped flow.
The one line to keep: the win market answers "does Fishback win the nomination?" at a cent and a half; the ladder answers "what number does he post?" with an even-money line between 13% and 14%.
Thin Rungs: Read The Book, Not The Last Print
One honest caveat belongs next to that table. The entire ladder event has traded about 3.09 million lifetime contracts, a fifth of what Fishback's single win-market contract has done on its own, and the volume is lumpy. Seven seasoned rungs (1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 30%) carry over 3 million of it; the eight fine-grained rungs (6% through 9% and 11% through 14%) were listed on August 10, 2026, the day before this snapshot, and have traded between 603 and 12,000 contracts each. The "at least 14%" rung has 714 lifetime contracts, nearly all of them in the last 24 hours; the 6% rung's entire lifetime volume arrived in the same window.
On rungs that thin, the last-trade print goes stale fast. The cleanest example on today's board: "at least 13%" last traded at 45 cents, below its own 53-cent bid, which means the print predates the market and the live bid/ask is the real information; the 11% rung shows the reverse, a 65-cent last print above its own 62-cent ask. The rule for any thin order book is to quote the bid and the ask and treat the spread as the actual cost, and it is the same discipline sports bettors apply when they shop a number across books on a live odds screen instead of taking the first price shown. Below 10 cents these contracts also tick in tenths of a cent, and Kalshi's per-order fee formula rounds up in ways that matter at penny prices; the fee math is its own read.
How This Page Updates Through August 18
Through primary week, the prices on this page get re-fetched and the read re-derived; the numbers above are a dated snapshot, not a standing claim, and the market will keep moving until the ladder's rungs resolve. After Florida certifies the August 18, 2026 result, this page flips to the postmortem on the same URL: which rung the certified share landed on, what the final board priced the night before, and how the even-money line moved over the closing week. The day-to-day scoreboard on how these election boards trade lives at Kalshi picks today.
The Bottom Line
One week out, Kalshi's answer to the James Fishback odds question is two numbers, not one. To win the Florida Republican governor nomination: 1.4/1.5 cents, an implied 1.5%, with Byron Donalds at 98.7 priced as the near-certain nominee. On vote share, the live argument: a one-in-three chance at the 10-to-15 band, an even-money line between 13% and 14%, and steepening prices on every rung above it. The win market closed its debate months ago; the ladder is where the market still updates its Fishback number in real time, which makes it the single most informative board to watch on August 18. The same ladder logic runs across every race on the 2026 midterm election odds board, and this page will still be here when the certified result grades the market's read.
FAQ
What are James Fishback's odds to win the Florida Republican governor primary? As of August 11, 2026, Kalshi prices James Fishback's contract at 1.4/1.5 cents in its Florida Republican governor nominee market (KXGOVFLNOMR-26), an implied chance of roughly 1.5%, or about +6600 in moneyline terms. Byron Donalds trades at 98.5/98.7 cents on the same board.
What vote share does the market expect James Fishback to get? Kalshi's 15-rung vote-share ladder makes a finish between 10% and 15% the single most likely 5-point band, at about a one-in-three chance as of August 11, 2026, with "at least 10%" trading near 63 cents and "at least 15%" near 30. By live quotes the even-money line on his number sits between 13% and 14%.
When is the Florida Republican governor primary? Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Florida abolished primary runoffs in 2005, so the nomination goes to whoever wins a plurality of the primary vote. Kalshi's vote-share ladder settles on Fishback's certified share of that vote.
Why do some of the ladder's prices look inconsistent? The fine-grained rungs (6% through 9% and 11% through 14%) were listed on August 10, 2026 and have traded only a few hundred to about twelve thousand lifetime contracts each, so their last-trade prints can go stale. On August 11, the "at least 13%" contract last traded at 45 cents while its bid sat at 53; the bid and ask are the live information on a thin rung, not the last print.
To be explicit: the prices and volumes on this page are live market data presented as informational content, not financial advice, and nothing here recommends any trade or characterizes any voter or candidate. Kalshi lists CFTC-regulated event contracts for adults 18 and over (18+), and availability varies by state; check the platform's own eligibility rules. Any panel numbers linked from this page are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice, and every call this site's panel makes is publicly graded on the Model Verdict Scoreboard.
Prices and volume as of August 11, 2026, 6:09 p.m. ET. Markets move; re-check the live board before relying on any number here.
