Who won Gauff vs Pegula? Coco Gauff beat Jessica Pegula 6-2, 6-4 in the Cincinnati Open final on Sunday, August 23, 2026, per ESPN's match report. Kalshi's head-to-head market had her at 57 to 58 cents that morning, and the favorite cashed: Gauff contracts settled at a dollar, Pegula contracts at zero.
It was Gauff's second Cincinnati title, which makes her the third woman in the Open Era to win the event more than once, after Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka, per Sky Sports. The career series between the two is now level at 5-5. Below: what the price paid, how it was built on Saturday night, and where both players stood on the US Open board after the result.
Was 58 Cents The Right Price?
A Kalshi contract pays $1 if the named player wins, so the 58-cent ask on Gauff was the crowd calling her roughly a 58% favorite. Buy at that ask and settlement returned 42 cents of profit per contract; the Pegula side went to zero when her contract resolved No.
That price looked aggressive against the head-to-head. Pegula led the series 5-4 coming in, but the latest meeting had gone to Gauff, a comeback win in the Wimbledon quarterfinals in July, per Yahoo Sports. The crowd weighed the recent match and Saturday's workloads over the career record, and Sunday said it was right. One straight-sets final does not prove the price was fair, but recency and rest over career record is the read that cashed.
Both Kalshi Cincinnati boards on final morning, August 23, before settlement:
| Contract | Bid (final morning) | Ask (final morning) | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gauff (Match Board) | 57¢ | 58¢ | $1.00 |
| Pegula (Match Board) | 43¢ | 44¢ | $0.00 |
| Gauff (Tournament Board) | 56¢ | 59¢ | $1.00 |
| Pegula (Tournament Board) | 40¢ | 41¢ | $0.00 |
With only the final left, the match board and the tournament board were pricing the same outcome, yet Pegula asked 44 cents on one and 41 on the other. Settlement paid both boards identically, so whoever bought the cheaper quote simply lost three cents less per contract. Knowing which board you are reading is part of reading tennis prediction markets at all, and our Kalshi picks hub tracks seams like this across the exchange every day.
How The Board Got To 58 Cents
Saturday's semifinals set the price. Gauff needed 76 minutes to beat Sara Bejlek 6-4, 6-1. Pegula went nearly three hours with Iga Swiatek, dropped the second set, fell behind in the third, and still closed it 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, per Yahoo Sports' match report.
On Kalshi's tournament winner board, Gauff repriced from 33 cents to 59 as the semifinals went final. Pegula jumped from 6 cents to 41. Entering Saturday, the crowd had given the eventual finalist about a 6% shot at the title, largely because Swiatek stood in her path.
Kalshi listed the head-to-head market on the final late Saturday night, and by Sunday morning both sides were quoted a single cent wide.
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What The Final Did To Their US Open Odds
Cincinnati was the last WTA 1000 before the US Open, whose main draw opened on Sunday, August 30, with finals set for September 12-13, per Tennis Majors' calendar. The prices here are from Kalshi's US Open women's winner board as of Wednesday morning, August 26, three days after the final.
Gauff's row was the move. Before the final she sat third at 11 to 13 cents. By Wednesday she asked 15 against Swiatek's 16. Aryna Sabalenka sat unmoved at the top, at 22 to 23 cents. The market took the title seriously without crowning her.
Gauff talked her own number down after the match, telling Sky Sports: "I don't think that this is an indicator that I'm going to do well in New York." Pegula, her former doubles partner, read the same result the other way: "A dangerous, confident Coco is going to New York."
Pegula herself ticked up a single cent, to a 7-cent ask. That was the second time in a week the crowd filed her under longshot, and the first time ended with her tournament contract moving from 6 cents to 41 in one night.
The men's board reset the same week for a different reason, Jannik Sinner's withdrawal, and that repricing lives on the US Open men's board. The Cincinnati winner page holds the men's graded record the way this page holds the women's.
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*Kalshi prices are shown as of the stamps given. *
