Two losses and the group chat is already writing obituaries. Every September we do this, and every January a team we buried is still playing.
Since 1999, 25 of 227 teams that started 0-2 made the playoffs. Since the field went to 14 teams it's 8 of 51, and only two 0-3 teams have gotten in. Both were Houston.
Eight teams are 0-2 after Week 2. Below is what the playoff market charges for each one right now, bid and ask, with the ask turned into familiar odds.
The 0-2 board
Kalshi "make the playoffs" market, stamped Tuesday 9/22/2026, 12:36 PM ET.
| Team | Lost to | Bid | Ask | Ask as odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | BUF 36-31, CIN 20-6 | 50¢ | 53¢ | -113 |
| Colts | BAL 41-23, KC 33-30 | 25¢ | 26¢ | +285 |
| Buccaneers | CIN 33-27, CLE 23-19 | 24¢ | 25¢ | +300 |
| Chargers | ARI 26-14, LV 26-14 | 19¢ | 20¢ | +400 |
| Falcons | PIT 20-13, CAR 34-3 | 12¢ | 14¢ | +614 |
| Commanders | PHI 24-22, DAL 37-20 | 6¢ | 10¢ | +900 |
| Titans | NYJ 23-10, PHI 24-20 | 2¢ | 6¢ | +1567 |
| Dolphins | LV 27-13, SF 35-13 | 3¢ | 4¢ | +2400 |
A Yes contract pays $1 if the team makes the playoffs. The ask is what you pay for Yes right now. Sanity check: the mid-prices for all 32 teams add up to 14.2, against 14 playoff spots.
Which name fits you
- Texans, 50¢ / 53¢. The only 0-2 team priced near a coin flip. My call on it is below.
- Colts, 25¢ / 26¢. A live season price, not history homework. They lost to Kansas City by three.
- Buccaneers, 24¢ / 25¢. Also live. Both losses were one-score games.
- Chargers, 19¢ / 20¢. A longer ticket. You're paying for a turnaround, and the price says so.
- Falcons, 12¢ / 14¢. Longer still. The 34-3 loss to Carolina is baked into that number.
- Commanders, 6¢ / 10¢. That's the Jayden Daniels injury. It has its own page.
- Titans, 2¢ / 6¢. Not a read. That spread is an empty book.
- Dolphins, 3¢ / 4¢. The market has Miami all but done after two losses by 14 and 22.
Eytan's call
It's the Texans. We've seen this story before and I'm not going to overlook the market price either. The Texans are essentially priced as a coin flip to make the playoffs. That's a normal price for a good team in September, not an 0-2 squad that just got smoked by the Bengals.
Look a little deeper and you see another Kalshi market that's more telling. Houston is priced at 40¢ to win the AFC South. That's the whole argument: they're live to win their division despite this slow start.
In Summary
- Eight teams are 0-2 after Week 2. The market prices them from 53¢ (Houston) down to 4¢ (Miami).
- An 0-2 start is a long road, not a closed door. Teams get in from here most years.
- Houston is the number. The division price is the argument, not the record.
Hero photo: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images, via Reuters Connect / Reuters; cropped.
