Updated August 16, 2026 · 22 min read · by Jake Hari
The Quick Answer
Kalshi runs a release-date contract on twelve of the launches technology is waiting on: GPT-6, OpenAI's Astra, Gemini 3.5 Pro, Grok 5, Anthropic's Opus 6 and Mythos, Meta's Llama 5, the iPhone 18, Apple's first foldable, the PlayStation 6, NVIDIA's Vera Rubin and Tesla's Optimus. Each one pays $1 if the stated event happens before a stated date, and nothing if it does not. For most of the twelve that event is a public release; for the PlayStation 6 and the foldable iPhone it is only an announcement, and for Optimus it is a public sale. We ran all twelve boards past eight AI models that were shown the settlement rules and the fetched evidence but never a price. The panel came back well under the market on eight of the twelve, and the reason is mostly not skepticism about the technology. It is that most of these contracts pay on a name, an access tier or a buyer, and the exchange has already graded sixteen deadlines on these same twelve subjects this year. Every one of the sixteen settled No. The full board, every model's number, and deep reads on the five boards where that argument gets loudest are below.
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New to this kind of market? Our plain explanation of how prediction markets work covers how a cent price becomes a probability and what actually decides a settlement.
Prices As Of August 16, 2026
Every price on this page is the midpoint of Kalshi's live bid and ask, read on August 16, 2026. Prices refresh as the story moves and the stamp above travels with them.
Two of these boards need a warning before you read a number off them. Depth is wildly uneven across the twelve. The iPhone 18 October contract carries 403,401 contracts of open interest and Tesla's Optimus contract 123,842, so those prices are real markets with real money behind them. NVIDIA's Vera Rubin ladder is the opposite: its most-traded rung holds 158 contracts and its final rung holds zero. A quote with no position behind it still comes from somewhere, usually a market maker, but it carries almost no crowd signal. Where a subject's furthest deadline had no trading behind it, the board below shows the furthest rung that did, and the full ladders further down show every rung either way.
The Board
| Subject | What has to happen | By | Kalshi | AI blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI GPT-6 | OpenAI releases a model called GPT-6 or higher | Jan 1, 2027 | 78¢ | 18.6% |
| NVIDIA Vera Rubin | Vera Rubin on sale to the US general public | Nov 1, 2026 | 63.5¢ | 5.4% |
| Apple iPhone 18 | Apple releases the iPhone 18 to the public | Jan 1, 2027 | 12.5¢ | 66.0% |
| OpenAI Astra | Astra released publicly, any brand name | Nov 1, 2026 | 88.5¢ | 41.3% |
| xAI Grok 5 | xAI releases Grok 5 publicly | Jan 1, 2027 | 67¢ | 31.8% |
| Tesla Optimus | Optimus or another humanoid robot on public sale | Dec 31, 2026 | 9.5¢ | 41.5% |
| Apple Foldable iPhone | Apple announces a foldable phone | Dec 31, 2026 | 92.5¢ | 65.4% |
| Anthropic Opus 6 | Anthropic releases Opus 6 publicly | Nov 1, 2026 | 12.5¢ | 4.9% |
| Google Gemini 3.5 Pro | Google releases Gemini 3.5 Pro or higher | Aug 31, 2026 | 9.5¢ | 14.0% |
| Meta Llama 5 | Meta releases Llama 5 publicly | Jan 1, 2027 | 6.5¢ | 3.4% |
| Anthropic Mythos | Anthropic releases a model called Mythos publicly | Jan 1, 2027 | 16.5¢ | 14.4% |
| Sony PlayStation 6 | Sony announces the PS6 | Dec 31, 2026 | 7¢ | 8.1% |
Sorted by the size of the disagreement, largest first. Every row is a live Kalshi contract; the "what has to happen" column compresses the settlement rule, and the exact wording that decides the biggest disagreements is quoted later in this article.
More live boards from the same panel: iPhone 18 release date odds, the most-traded subject on this page, at 6.5¢ before October and 12.5¢ before 2027 · GTA 6 release date odds, where a 2026 release is priced at 86.5¢ · Elder Scrolls 6 release date odds, the same question at 2.5¢ before 2027. Prices fetched August 16, 2026.
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Every market above links to our full AI model verdict; browse them all on the OddsShopper prediction markets hub, and see how every settled call actually scored on the full graded scoreboard.
Every Seat's Number
| Subject | Kalshi | Blend | Fable | Opus | Sonnet | ChatGPT | Gemini | GLM | Kimi | DeepSeek |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI GPT-6 | 78¢ | 18.6% | 24 | 26 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 24 | 10 |
| NVIDIA Vera Rubin | 63.5¢ | 5.4% | 5 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| Apple iPhone 18 | 12.5¢ | 66.0% | 64 | 56 | 55 | 60 | 55 | 68 | 80 | 90 |
| OpenAI Astra | 88.5¢ | 41.3% | 37 | 36 | 42 | 46 | 45 | 35 | 55 | 34 |
| xAI Grok 5 | 67¢ | 31.8% | 28 | 35 | 36 | 34 | 35 | 18 | 38 | 30 |
| Tesla Optimus | 9.5¢ | 41.5% | 88 | 20 | 45 | 24 | 85 | 20 | 40 | 10 |
| Apple Foldable iPhone | 92.5¢ | 65.4% | 75 | 75 | 65 | 68 | 60 | 55 | 65 | 60 |
| Anthropic Opus 6 | 12.5¢ | 4.9% | 2.8 | 5.5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 |
| Google Gemini 3.5 Pro | 9.5¢ | 14.0% | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 |
| Meta Llama 5 | 6.5¢ | 3.4% | 2 | 3.5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Anthropic Mythos | 16.5¢ | 14.4% | 18 | 25 | 13 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 5 |
| Sony PlayStation 6 | 7¢ | 8.1% | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 84% on 508 graded calls · Claude Opus 85% on 578 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 84% on 556 graded calls · GPT 84% on 5,500 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 4,292 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,367 graded calls · Kimi 83% on 2,345 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,392 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated August 16, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, on the full graded scoreboard. All eight seats returned a board on this run. Each seat priced all twelve subjects in a single pass, so no launch date was set without the rest of the industry in view, then read the other seven boards anonymously and was invited to revise. Every figure above is the post-revision number.
What The Settled Record Actually Says
Before the individual boards, the base rate, because it is the single most useful number on this page and almost nobody quotes it.
We pulled every release and launch contract Kalshi has already settled across 27 series covering AI models, phones, chips, consoles, cars, games, albums and shows. Sixty-six of them have resolved. Twenty-one settled Yes, meaning the thing shipped before the deadline. Forty-five settled No. That is a 31.8% hit rate for "will it ship by then" across the entire class.
Narrow it to AI models, where the shipping culture is supposedly fastest, and it gets harsher: 8 of 44 settled Yes, or 18.2%.
The base rate nobody quotes: 21 of 66 settled Kalshi release contracts paid out, and only 8 of 44 in AI models. On the twelve subjects on this page, 16 deadlines have already passed in 2026 and every one settled No.
The pattern inside those numbers is the useful part. Contracts whose deadline sat more than 120 days out when they were listed have gone 0 for 4. Contracts listed with a deadline 15 to 45 days away went 14 of 25, because a deadline that close usually gets listed when something is visibly imminent. The far rungs are where optimism goes to die, and the far rungs are exactly where this board's biggest prices sit.
Then there is the local record, which is even more direct. Sixteen deadlines have already passed on these same twelve subjects during 2026: two on GPT-6, three on Mythos, seven straight weekly rungs on Gemini 3.5 Pro, one each on Astra, Grok 5, the iPhone 18 and Vera Rubin. Every single one settled No. Not one product on this page has yet cleared a deadline the exchange set for it.
That record is what the panel was handed, and it is most of the reason the blend sits under the market on eight of twelve boards.
GPT-6 And Astra: OpenAI's Naming Problem
The GPT-6 contract is the largest gap on the board and the cleanest illustration of what these markets actually price.
The rule reads: "If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes," with a secondary condition that the release must be public and outside a closed beta, though a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. The market says 78¢. The panel says 18.6%.
The reason for the gap is a document Kalshi wrote into the contract itself. On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed a model it calls Astra, describing it as "our next major model" and crediting an internal version of it with ten long-standing open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science that it says the model resolved or substantially advanced. Kalshi's Astra contract terms spell out that a qualifying release includes any model publicly named Astra or confirmed to share the same underlying training run, under any commercial name or access tier. What those terms do not say is that Astra will be called GPT-6.
So the market appears to be pricing "OpenAI ships its next frontier model this year," which is a reasonable thing to expect. The panel is pricing the sentence in the contract, which needs the number 6 or higher on the box.
"Astra is the obvious next ship, but the contract needs the GPT-6 name and OpenAI has not committed to it. A disclosure is not a release, and a differently-branded release does not pay this rung." — Kimi
The Astra board itself splits the same way for a different reason. The market prices 88.5¢ that Astra is publicly out before November 1. The panel says 41.3%. Every seat took the August 1 disclosure seriously, and every seat noticed that OpenAI attached no date, no pricing, no model card and no availability to it. The panel's blend does not cross 50% until the December 1 rung, by which point the market is at 96¢.
If you want the deeper version of the OpenAI cadence argument, our GPT-6 release date odds piece walks the full GPT-2 through GPT-5 history against this ladder.
The iPhone 18 Question 403,000 Contracts Are Arguing About
This is the board where the panel sits furthest above the market, and it is the single most-traded contract on the page.
The rule is short: "If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." Kalshi prices that at 6.5¢, and 12.5¢ for the same question by January 1, 2027. The panel says 53.8% and 66.0%.
Both sides agree on the underlying facts, which is what makes this interesting. On August 12, 2026, Apple manufacturer Pegatron confirmed a split launch at its earnings conference: the iPhone 18 Pro lineup is still planned for September 2026, while the base iPhone 18 may not appear until the first quarter of 2027. Nobody on either side of this market thinks the base iPhone 18 is shipping in the fall.
The disagreement is entirely about whether an iPhone 18 Pro counts as "iPhone 18."
"Pegatron confirms the split. This is a coin-flip on whether the grader reads iPhone 18 Pro as iPhone 18, not on Apple's factory." — Claude Opus
Six of the eight seats landed between 55% and 68% on that reading. The market, with 403,401 contracts of open interest behind it, is at 6.5¢, which is close to a flat statement that only the base model counts. When a deep market and a careful panel disagree this hard on a settlement question rather than a factual one, the closest analog we have is how this exchange has actually graded: three Mythos rungs settled No because a restricted-access release did not clear a public-release clause. That strict reading favors the market here, and it is worth weighing more than the panel's confidence. Our standalone iPhone 18 release date board tracks the narrower base-model question directly.
Vera Rubin: When "Full Production" Is Not A Release
NVIDIA said on May 31, 2026 that Vera Rubin had ramped into full production, and that production shipments are set to begin this fall. The market read that and priced the Kalshi ladder at 63.5¢ for a November 1 release and 85.5¢ by January.
The panel read the settlement rule instead. It requires that the product be "available for purchase, subscription, or download by the general public (not just employees, beta testers, or limited test groups)" through official channels or authorized retailers, in the United States, and not labeled beta, early access or preview. Rack-scale datacenter silicon shipping to hyperscalers does not obviously clear that bar, and the exchange has already graded the August rung No.
"Fall shipments are hyperscaler-channel; rules demand general-public US purchase. The tail is the resolver accepting OEM or distributor orderability as available for purchase." — Claude Fable
The blend is 5.4% on the November rung against 63.5¢. That is the second-widest disagreement on the page behind GPT-6, and it is also the thinnest market on the page: 158 contracts of open interest on that rung and zero on the January rung. Claude Opus, the highest seat at 15%, made the point that cuts both ways.
"The crowd collapsed it to near zero on the general-public clause while NVIDIA is in full production with fall shipments; nobody has traded it, so that consensus carries almost no information." — Claude Opus
[Editor's note: this seat was price-blind, so "the crowd" here means the other seven forecasters, whose blend on this rung sits at 5.4%, not the market, which sits at 63.5¢. The "nobody has traded it" observation matches the exchange data: 158 contracts of open interest on the November rung and none on January.]
Both readings are true at once. The gap is enormous, and neither number is standing on much.
Tesla Optimus: The Four Words That Split The Panel
The Optimus contract produced the widest internal disagreement of the run, from 10% to 88% across eight seats, and it comes down to a parenthetical.
The rule: "If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Read narrowly, this is a bet on Tesla, and Tesla is not close. As of April 2026, first-generation production lines were being installed at Fremont, a Texas line was designed for volume starting in 2027, version 3 had not been revealed and no consumer sale had been announced. Read literally, the contract pays if any humanoid robot is on public sale, which several seats argued is already true.
"The verbatim rule pays on 'another humanoid robot' on sale to the general public, which consumer-purchasable humanoids already satisfy; only resolver strictness is in question." — Claude Fable
[Editor's note: seats citing specific third-party robots were reasoning from their own knowledge, not from the data card. Checking the primary source: Unitree's own G1 product page lists a price from $13.5K but shows no direct purchase button, and the education configuration is quote-only through sales contact. Whether that clears "on sale to the general public" is exactly the ambiguity the panel is describing, and the exchange has not graded it.]
The market sits at 9.5¢ with 123,842 contracts of open interest, which is the crowd saying the narrow Tesla reading is the one that will be applied. The panel's 41.5% blend is not a forecast about robotics. It is eight models split on a resolver's future decision, and a blend that averages a 10 and an 88 is describing a coin flip nobody should treat as a number.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
The quiet rows on this board carry the cleanest arguments.
Anthropic Mythos, 16.5¢, panel 14.4%. This is the rare row where the market and the panel nearly agree, and both are pricing a naming decision rather than a model. Mythos was announced April 7, 2026. On June 9, Anthropic shipped two models: Mythos 5, restricted to approved organizations, and Fable 5, the safeguarded public sibling. Three Mythos rungs have settled No since that release, which tells you the exchange does not count a restricted-access ship. Claude Opus, at 25% the most bullish seat, argued it "pays only if Anthropic attaches Mythos to a paid public tier," which is a policy reversal rather than an engineering milestone. The full Mythos board covers the settlement history in detail.
Meta Llama 5, 6.5¢, panel 3.4%. In April 2026 Meta Superintelligence Labs released Muse Spark as a replacement for Llama, and the encyclopedia record now writes the Llama family in the past tense. The contract pays only on a model named Llama 5. Several low-quality sites claim a Llama 5 already shipped in April; the structured record and the still-open contract both say otherwise, which is a useful reminder to check what a market's continued existence implies before believing a headline.
Sony PlayStation 6, 7¢, panel 8.1%. The tightest agreement on the board. The bar here is only an announcement, not a launch, and the panel still lands single digits: the PS5 launched in November 2020, and no primary Sony announcement of a successor was located. Sonnet's summary was blunt: "Zero primary reporting located; PS5 is only 6 years old and Sony has given no signal of an imminent reveal." Sony named the PS5 as the PlayStation 4's successor in April 2019 and shipped it 19 months later, so an announcement inside 2026 would point at a 2028 console rather than a 2027 one.
Anthropic Opus 6, 12.5¢, panel 4.9%. Anthropic has announced no Opus 6. This is the row where the market has the better-looking case: the published Opus cadence in 2026 runs Opus 4.6 on February 5, Opus 4.7 on April 16, Opus 4.8 on May 28 and Opus 5 on July 24, which is a major Opus release every six to ten weeks. The panel weighted the naming step from 5 to 6 more heavily than the calendar, and landed at 4.9% against a 12.5¢ November rung. That is a disagreement worth watching rather than one to lean on.
Google Gemini 3.5 Pro, 9.5¢, panel 14.0%. The only near-term board here, and the one with the ugliest record: seven consecutive weekly rungs settled No between June 30 and August 7. On July 21, Google released three Gemini models and none of them was 3.5 Pro, with Bloomberg reporting internal delays against performance goals and a DeepMind product lead saying the model was testing with partners. The panel is modestly above the market anyway, because the contract pays on "Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater" and Google ships often enough that a higher-numbered Pro model would also count.
The Full Ladders
The single rungs above are the headline. The ladders are where the shape of each forecast lives, and the shape is the actual claim. Every open contract on all twelve subjects:
| Subject | Deadline | Kalshi | AI blend |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI Astra | Aug 21, 2026 | 4.5¢ | 2.9% |
| OpenAI Astra | Sep 1, 2026 | 16.5¢ | 8.1% |
| OpenAI Astra | Sep 18, 2026 | 46¢ | 16.3% |
| OpenAI Astra | Oct 1, 2026 | 72¢ | 25.1% |
| OpenAI Astra | Oct 16, 2026 | 84.5¢ | 33.4% |
| OpenAI Astra | Nov 1, 2026 | 88.5¢ | 41.3% |
| OpenAI Astra | Dec 1, 2026 | 96¢ | 52.4% |
| OpenAI GPT-6 | Sep 1, 2026 | 4¢ | 1.9% |
| OpenAI GPT-6 | Oct 1, 2026 | 28.5¢ | 4.8% |
| OpenAI GPT-6 | Nov 1, 2026 | 50¢ | 9.1% |
| OpenAI GPT-6 | Jan 1, 2027 | 78¢ | 18.6% |
| Anthropic Mythos | Sep 1, 2026 | 1.5¢ | 2.2% |
| Anthropic Mythos | Oct 1, 2026 | 3.5¢ | 4.6% |
| Anthropic Mythos | Nov 1, 2026 | 7.5¢ | 7.4% |
| Anthropic Mythos | Dec 1, 2026 | 12.5¢ | 10.6% |
| Anthropic Mythos | Jan 1, 2027 | 16.5¢ | 14.4% |
| Anthropic Opus 6 | Sep 1, 2026 | 1.5¢ | 0.9% |
| Anthropic Opus 6 | Sep 16, 2026 | 1.5¢ | 1.5% |
| Anthropic Opus 6 | Oct 1, 2026 | 3.5¢ | 2.3% |
| Anthropic Opus 6 | Oct 16, 2026 | 4¢ | 3.4% |
| Anthropic Opus 6 | Nov 1, 2026 | 12.5¢ | 4.9% |
| xAI Grok 5 | Sep 1, 2026 | 1.5¢ | 2.7% |
| xAI Grok 5 | Oct 1, 2026 | 6.5¢ | 8.5% |
| xAI Grok 5 | Jan 1, 2027 | 67¢ | 31.8% |
| NVIDIA Vera Rubin | Sep 1, 2026 | 20.5¢ | 0.8% |
| NVIDIA Vera Rubin | Oct 1, 2026 | 40.5¢ | 2.6% |
| NVIDIA Vera Rubin | Nov 1, 2026 | 63.5¢ | 5.4% |
| NVIDIA Vera Rubin | Dec 1, 2026 | 75¢ | 8.6% |
| NVIDIA Vera Rubin | Jan 1, 2027 | 85.5¢ | 13.5% |
| Apple iPhone 18 | Oct 1, 2026 | 6.5¢ | 53.8% |
| Apple iPhone 18 | Jan 1, 2027 | 12.5¢ | 66.0% |
| Google Gemini 3.5 Pro | Aug 21, 2026 | 5¢ | 4.8% |
| Google Gemini 3.5 Pro | Aug 31, 2026 | 9.5¢ | 14.0% |
| Meta Llama 5 | Jan 1, 2027 | 6.5¢ | 3.4% |
| Apple Foldable iPhone | Dec 31, 2026 | 92.5¢ | 65.4% |
| Sony PlayStation 6 | Dec 31, 2026 | 7¢ | 8.1% |
| Tesla Optimus | Dec 31, 2026 | 9.5¢ | 41.5% |
Three shapes are worth reading closely. The Astra market steepens hard through September and then flattens into near certainty, which is a market pricing an event it expects on a calendar; the panel's line is close to straight, which is what a constant monthly chance looks like when nothing is scheduled. Mythos runs as two nearly parallel lines, which is what agreement looks like when both sides have read the same rulebook. Grok 5 barely moves until the final rung and then leaps to 67¢, a bet that the version number eventually jumps: xAI's own developer release notes list Grok 4.6 in August as the newest model, after Grok 4.5 in July, and Grok 5 appears nowhere on the page.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Every seat priced the board alone, then read the other seven anonymously and was invited to revise. Three arguments moved real money's worth of probability.
The Optimus parenthetical was the big one. Seven of eight seats raised their number after another forecaster pointed at the four words in the rule, and the blend went from 17.8% to 41.5%. ChatGPT's revision was the most careful of them.
"Tesla consumer sale remains unlikely, but the rule covers another humanoid robot, making the contract broader than Tesla's roadmap." — ChatGPT
The Mythos argument ran the other way and did more damage. DeepSeek came in at 45%, treating the June restricted release as the first step toward a public one, and left at 5%.
"Three settled NOs prove restricted Mythos fails; public sibling is Fable. Naming and access tier make a public Mythos release very unlikely." — DeepSeek
Kimi made the same move from 55% to 22%, and the blend dropped from 25.8% to 14.4%, landing about two points from the market.
Not everyone moved. Claude Fable barely shifted on either question, trimming Mythos from 21% to 18% and its foldable iPhone number from 78% to 75%, having priced both structures the same way in round one.
"Announcement-only bar; leaker reports say on schedule with yields solved; Apple's September event is a hard date. The risk is the leak chain being one stale rumor." — Claude Fable
The one seat whose reversal should make you cautious is DeepSeek on the iPhone 18, which went from 5% to 90% after reading the others. A 85-point swing on a settlement-interpretation question is a seat discovering an argument, not a seat gathering evidence, and it is a good reason to read that row's blend as the wide range it is.
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
Four things, each checkable, with the direction each one pushes.
OpenAI publishes a model page carrying the name GPT-6, or ships Astra under a GPT-6 label. The GPT-6 board goes from 18.6% to near settlement immediately, and the panel's entire naming argument collapses with it. The reverse also counts: an Astra launch under any other brand strengthens the panel's case, because it proves OpenAI is comfortable skipping the number.
Apple dates its fall event and names the September lineup. If Apple's own page calls the September devices the iPhone 18 Pro and no device is called simply iPhone 18, the market's 6.5¢ is vindicated and the panel's 53.8% was reading its own preferences into a rulebook. If Apple markets the fall launch as the iPhone 18 lineup, the panel's number is closer.
Kalshi grades any contract turning on "or another humanoid robot," or publishes clarifying settlement language. That single ruling collapses a 78-point spread among the seats to one side or the other and is the highest-information event on this entire page.
NVIDIA or an authorized distributor lists a Vera Rubin system for public US purchase. The panel's 5.4% is built entirely on the general-public clause; a retail or channel listing takes it up sharply. Continued hyperscaler-only shipments through the fall confirm the panel's read and leave that thinly traded 63.5¢ quote looking like a bet on a resolver being generous.
Settlement Timeline
| Date | What resolves |
|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Gemini 3.5 Pro and Astra near rungs close |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Gemini 3.5 Pro final open rung closes |
| Sep 1, 2026 | GPT-6, Astra, Mythos, Opus 6 and Grok 5 September rungs close |
| Oct 1, 2026 | iPhone 18 October rung closes, plus GPT-6, Astra, Mythos, Opus 6, Grok 5 and Vera Rubin rungs |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Astra, GPT-6, Mythos, Opus 6 and Vera Rubin rungs close |
| Dec 1, 2026 | Astra, Mythos and Vera Rubin rungs close |
| Dec 31, 2026 | Tesla Optimus, PlayStation 6 and foldable iPhone contracts close |
| Jan 1, 2027 | GPT-6, Mythos, Grok 5, Llama 5, iPhone 18 and Vera Rubin final rungs close |
This board is re-scored whenever the story moves, and every verdict on it is graded in public after settlement. Prices and model numbers as of August 16, 2026.
The Bottom Line
The useful way to read a release-date market is to stop reading it as a question about engineering. Almost every disagreement on this page is a disagreement about a sentence.
GPT-6 needs a number on a box. Mythos needs a name attached to a public tier, and Anthropic deliberately gave the public tier a different name. Vera Rubin needs a general-public buyer for a product built for eleven customers. Optimus needs a resolver to decide what a parenthetical means. The iPhone 18 needs someone to rule on whether Pro counts. Only Gemini 3.5 Pro and the PlayStation 6 are straightforward questions about whether a company finishes something on time, and those are the two rows where the market and the panel agree most closely.
That is also why the settled record is so lopsided. Twenty-one of 66 release contracts have paid, and 8 of 44 in AI. Sixteen deadlines have passed on these twelve subjects this year without a single Yes. The panel's pessimism is mostly not a view about technology slowing down. On the Opus 6 and Grok 5 rows it is a judgment about company cadence, and reasonable people can take the other side of both. On GPT-6, Mythos, Vera Rubin and Optimus it is closer to arithmetic on a rulebook.
To be explicit: these are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event exchange; contracts are 18+ and availability varies by state. Every number here will be graded in public when these markets settle.
