The Quick Answer
Brian Schottenheimer is priced third out of 33 coaches on Kalshi's NFL Coach of the Year market at 8 cents, as of Sunday, September 6, 2026, 9:29 PM ET. On this market a price of 8 cents means the outcome is being priced at about an 8% chance. He is down one cent from 9 the day before, and his price has not left a 7-to-9 cent band across the last eight daily closes. A coach coming off a 7-9-1 first season in Dallas is priced ahead of 30 other names on that board.
The Numbers
| Coach | Chance now | 1-day change |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Minter | 13% | flat |
| John Harbaugh | 11% | -1 |
| Brian Schottenheimer | 8% | -1 |
| Kellen Moore | 7% | -1 |
| Klint Kubiak | 5% | -1 |
| Jim Harbaugh | 5% | -1 |
| Robert Saleh | 5% | -1 |
| Ben Johnson | 5% | flat |
| Aaron Glenn | 5% | -1 |
| Kevin Stefanski | 4% | flat |
| Joe Brady | 4% | flat |
| DeMeco Ryans | 4% | -1 |
| Kevin O'Connell | 4% | -1 |
| Kyle Shanahan | 4% | flat |
| 19 More Coaches | 3% or less | n/a |
What Changed This Week
Nine of the 14 priced names above dropped a cent on the day. Five held flat. That is a board-wide shuffle, not a Schottenheimer story, and it is the honest read on his one-cent slide.
The real movement belongs to two other men. Jesse Minter, hired as head coach of the Baltimore Ravens (FOX Sports, August 17, 2026), closed at 11 cents for five straight days, then stepped to 13 on Thursday, September 3, and stayed there. John Harbaugh, now with the New York Giants (Yahoo Sports, September 3, 2026), closed at exactly 12 cents on all eight days in the source, and only slipped to 11 in Sunday night's price. Schottenheimer's own path over those closes ran 7, 9, 9, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9. Two cents of range in eight days.
Volume tells its own story. About 26,449 contracts changed hands in the last 24 hours against roughly 950,750 traded since the market opened, and 12,326 of that daily total, close to half, went through Zac Taylor, a name priced at 3 cents or less. About 878,664 contracts sit open across the board.
What An 8-Cent Price Actually Says
It says one thing and only one thing. This contract pays out if the named coach wins the Pro Football AP Coach of the Year for the 2026-2027 season, and the market does not close until February 28, 2028. It is not a Dallas win total, it is not a playoff price, and nothing on this board speaks to either.
So read it correctly. Eight cents is also 92 cents of the other side. The market is pricing Schottenheimer as far more likely to lose this award than win it, the way it prices every other name here. What is notable is the ranking, not the number. Third out of 33, ahead of Ben Johnson, ahead of Kyle Shanahan, ahead of Kevin O'Connell, after a losing record. Written-off coaches do not usually sit above 30 of their peers on an award board.
What Is Still In Doubt
Everything, because no games have been played into these prices yet. A two-cent band over eight days is what a preseason award market looks like when there is nothing new to price. The first month of results will move this board more than the entire week in the table did.
There is also a shape problem worth naming. One coach priced at 3 cents or less took nearly half of the day's volume, which means a single day's activity here can be driven by a name almost nobody has priced as a contender. That is normal for this kind of market, and the section below explains why.
About The Numbers
All prices above come from Kalshi, a federally regulated US exchange where you trade yes-or-no contracts on real-world outcomes rather than placing a bet with a sportsbook. Each contract settles at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, which is why a price in cents reads straight across as a percent chance: 8 cents is about an 8% chance. The change column is the difference between the current price and the previous day's price in the same source, so "-1" means the price fell one cent and "flat" means it did not move. Open contracts, about 878,664 here, is simply the number of contracts currently held open by traders, not money staked. The column of chances adds to more than 100 because every coach is a separate contract with its own buyers, sellers, and gap between the buy and sell price, so 33 independently priced names will overshoot rather than divide it neatly.
