Prices as of Friday, September 18, 2026, 11:30 a.m. ET.
Spurs have gone 407 Premier League minutes without a goal, the first time in club history they've failed to score in their first four league games.
Villa's only goal came from Alysson Edward in a 2-1 loss to Nottingham Forest. On the scoreboard, this is the worst attacking matchup in the league.
Underneath the scoreboard, it isn't. Expected goals, which grades every shot by how often a shot like it goes in, says both attacks have earned far more than they've scored.
I'm on the over, and the best price for it is on Kalshi.
Kalshi Bettors Are Paying For Goals
Exchange prices in cents, sportsbook prices in American odds.
Plenty Of Shots, Few On Target
Spurs have taken 51 shots and put 12 on target. Villa have taken 33 and put just six on target.
Villa started last season without a goal in four league games and still finished fourth.
Both Back Lines Have Been Worse Than The Scoreline
Each side has conceded fewer than the chances it has allowed, and opponents have taken 61 shots against each of them. Villa are also without Amadou Onana, Ian Maatsen and Pau Torres on Saturday.
Every Meeting Ended 2-1
These two met three times in 2025-26: Villa won at Spurs in the league and the FA Cup, and Spurs won at Villa Park in May. Nicolas Jackson, now at Villa, has scored four goals in four career Premier League appearances against Tottenham.
My Take
Tottenham haven't scored at all and Aston Villa have one goal, but the underlying metrics are better offensively. Both teams sit at about 3.4 expected goals, which shows the chances have been there even if the finishing hasn't. Both were also expected to give up slightly more goals than they have, so scoring in general could be on the horizon.
Regression doesn't always happen instantly, but I think this is a perfect game where both teams find some success and we get three or more goals.
