Kalshi Venezuela Leader Odds: Who Holds Power In 2026?
Prices as of September 3, 2026, 9:45 AM ET — this page rebuilds automatically from live Kalshi market prices throughout the day. A prediction-market price in cents is the market's implied probability: a 34¢ yes price means roughly a 34% chance.
The market right now: Who officially leads Venezuela at the end of 2026. Nicolás Maduro leads at 86¢ (about a 86% implied chance), with the market set to settle by December 2026.
Live Odds Board
| Outcome | Yes Price (Implied %) | Bid / Ask | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 86¢ (86%) | 84¢ / 87¢ | +3¢ |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 16¢ (16%) | 15¢ / 16¢ | +1¢ |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 3¢ (3%) | 1¢ / 4¢ | flat |
| Edmundo González | 3¢ (3%) | 1¢ / 4¢ | flat |
| Marco Rubio | 3¢ (3%) | 2¢ / 3¢ | flat |
| María Corina Machado | 3¢ (3%) | 1¢ / 4¢ | flat |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 3¢ (3%) | 2¢ / 3¢ | flat |
| Dinorah Figuera | 2¢ (2%) | 1¢ / 2¢ | flat |
| Donald Trump | 2¢ (2%) | 2¢ / 2¢ | flat |
| Pete Hegseth | 2¢ (2%) | 1¢ / 2¢ | flat |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 1¢ (1%) | 0¢ / 1¢ | flat |
| Miguel Rodríguez Torres | 1¢ (1%) | 0¢ / 1¢ | flat |
The board shows the top 12 of 18 priced outcomes; the rest are quoted at 1¢ or less. Thinner names without a posted market are omitted rather than shown with stale or invented prices. The Move column compares against this page's previous build.
The Track Record Behind Our Reads
Every call our model panel makes is logged before markets settle and graded after — 67,512 graded calls on the public ledger as of 2026-09-02, including GPT (7849 graded calls); Gemini (6535 graded calls). No cherry-picking: wins and losses both stay on the record.
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How To Read (And Trade) This Market
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market: each outcome trades as a yes/no contract priced 1¢–99¢, and settles at $1.00 if it happens, $0 if it doesn't. The price is the crowd's live probability — an outcome you believe is likelier than its price implies is, in expected-value terms, underpriced. Two practical notes before trading: spreads on longer-dated markets can be wide (check the Bid/Ask column — a big gap means you pay real edge just to enter), and Kalshi charges trading fees that scale with price (how Kalshi fees work).
