Tyler Shough leads the NFL in passing yards, and the market has made him the favorite without quite believing it. Three weeks ago this board had Dak Prescott on top and the nine-model panel arguing for Matthew Stafford. Two games later a second-year New Orleans quarterback the panel put near the bottom of the board leads the league, holds the top price, and sits one cent ahead of Jared Goff, who trails him by 129 yards.
A Yes contract pays $1 if that quarterback leads the league in regular-season passing yards, so the price in cents reads as the chance.
The Leader Nobody Trusts
Shough has 662 yards, 410 of them in the overtime loss to Detroit that opened the season. He is 26 and in his second season, and his top target, Chris Olave, is second in the league in receiving yards. The contract asks 12 cents, which is where the last trade printed.
That is the favorite's price on a board where the second name asks 11. Goff, Prescott and Brock Purdy are the next three prices, all behind him in yards, and the top four prices say traders still expect the September favorites to catch him. The panel gave Shough 0.5 percent off an 11-game rookie half-season. It is the widest miss on the board and it stays on the page.
Bryce Young Is Second In The League And 4 Cents
Young has 648 yards, 14 behind the leader, and the contract asks 4 cents. C.J. Stroud is third, throwing to catch up for an 0-2 Houston team, and asks 5. Every past leader in the panel's record threw a lot because his team trailed a lot. That is Young and Stroud right now, and the market has not moved either one to where the leaderboard has them.
The September Favorites, One Step Behind
Stafford was the panel's first name and the market's fifth. He threw four touchdowns against the Giants on Monday night and still sits tenth in the league at 482 yards; he asks 7 cents. Goff and Prescott, the panel's next two, hold the second and third prices; Goff is seventh in yards and Prescott is outside the top ten. Joe Burrow, the name the panel split on, is on a 2-0 Cincinnati team that has not needed to throw and asks 6.
The Two Names The Market Has Not Moved
Josh Allen is fourth in the league at 582 yards and asks 7 cents, the same as Stafford. The panel's 2.5 percent on him still rests on the rushing that comes out of his passing column. Patrick Mahomes is fifth at 566 and asks 5; the panel gave him 3.5 percent coming off the ACL tear. Both are on 2-0 teams, and both are ahead of every September favorite on the leaderboard.
Out Of The Race
Caleb Williams is doubtful for Monday night against Philadelphia and asks 2 cents. Jayden Daniels is out for Sunday against Seattle. Sam Darnold threw two passes before a glute strain took him out of the opener and is questionable this week; his contract asks 1 cent. Shedeur Sanders has not played a snap.
The Field
Five starting quarterbacks have no contract: Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, Jaxson Dart and Cleveland's Deshaun Watson. None of them is inside the league's top ten in passing yards after two weeks. If any of them leads the league, all 28 contracts pay zero. The panel priced that at 7.9 percent.
The Board
Prices are the ask on the Yes contract, pulled the morning of September 24, 2026. Yards are through Week 2 from ESPN with the game-by-game split; the panel column is the nine-model median from September 2, unchanged.
| Quarterback | Through Week 2 | Wk 1 / Wk 2 | Yes price | Panel (Sep 2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough (NO) | 662 yds · 90 att | 410 / 252 | 12¢ | 0.5% |
| Jared Goff (DET) | 533 yds · 77 att | 206 / 327 | 11¢ | 8.5% |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 454 yds · 65 att | 175 / 279 | 9¢ | 8.5% |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 492 yds · 56 att | 205 / 287 | 8¢ | 1.5% |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 482 yds · 56 att | 155 / 327 | 7¢ | 9.0% |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 582 yds · 60 att | 334 / 248 | 7¢ | 2.5% |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | 461 yds · 66 att | 254 / 207 | 6¢ | 7.8% |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 566 yds · 74 att | 184 / 382 | 5¢ | 3.5% |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 532 yds · 71 att | 387 / 145 | 5¢ | 2.0% |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 627 yds · 93 att | 274 / 353 | 5¢ | 2.5% |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 386 yds · 55 att | 178 / 208 | 4¢ | 7.5% |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | 434 yds · 52 att | 245 / 189 | 4¢ | 5.4% |
| Bryce Young (CAR) | 648 yds · 73 att | 361 / 287 | 4¢ | 1.0% |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 559 yds · 56 att | 324 / 235 | 3¢ | 1.0% |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 407 yds · 55 att · doubtful | 269 / 138 | 2¢ | 4.7% |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 419 yds · 59 att | 131 / 288 | 2¢ | 4.8% |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 401 yds · 54 att | 209 / 192 | 2¢ | 4.0% |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 398 yds · 62 att | 216 / 182 | 2¢ | 2.8% |
| Jacoby Brissett (ARI) | 372 yds · 65 att | 277 / 95 | 2¢ | 1.5% |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | 408 yds · 79 att | 221 / 187 | 2¢ | 1.0% |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 467 yds · 62 att | 203 / 264 | 2¢ | 1.1% |
| Daniel Jones (IND) | 376 yds · 62 att | 166 / 210 | 2¢ | 1.3% |
| Geno Smith (NYJ) | 462 yds · 65 att | 215 / 247 | 2¢ | 0.8% |
| Jayden Daniels (WSH) | 260 yds · 51 att · out | 164 / 96 | 2¢ | 0.6% |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | 13 yds · 2 att · questionable | 13 / DNP | 1¢ | 3.3% |
| Cam Ward (TEN) | 323 yds · 52 att | 140 / 183 | 1¢ | 1.5% |
| Shedeur Sanders (CLE) | no games · backup | DNP / DNP | 1¢ | 0.2% |
| Malik Willis (MIA) | 417 yds · 50 att | 220 / 197 | 1¢ | 0.2% |
| Any unlisted leader | Tagovailoa, Watson, Cousins, Murray, Dart | none in top 10 | no contract | 7.9% |
What The Panel Got Right, And Wrong
The nine models ran on September 2, price-blind, and have not been re-run. Their method was the attempts column: a title takes roughly 575 throws at a decent rate, and they ranked the quarterbacks who had already done that volume. Two weeks in, the top of the leaderboard is three quarterbacks the panel priced at 2.5 percent or less, and the volume argument is doing the work on all three. The panel's top three, Stafford, Goff and Prescott, are tenth, seventh and outside the top ten in yards. Where the panel is still ahead of the market: its field, and its Allen number, which the market has now moved toward. Every model is graded against the final leaderboard on the public model verdict scoreboard.
What Decides It Next
Las Vegas at New Orleans on Sunday afternoon, where a third 300-yard game would make Shough's price look slow. Carolina at Cleveland, where Young is a road favorite for the first time this season and a lead would cost him attempts. Houston at Indianapolis, where an 0-2 Texans team playing from behind again keeps Stroud on 50-throw pace. And the Jets at Detroit, where Goff gets the softer script the market is paying for. At 12 cents the leader is priced like one name in a nine-way race, so size it like a season-long hold rather than a two-week read.
The Week 3 Props Angle
This board is a market-priced volume projection for quarterbacks, and the weekly version of the attempts argument is a passing-yards prop every Sunday. The three passers at the top of the leaderboard are the three throwing the most because their teams trail; Stokastic Prop Tools runs that read against live lines every slate.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Verdicts generated September 2, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data, after one anonymized revision round; not re-run since. Prices as of September 24, 2026, quoted as the ask on the Yes contract. Panel: ChatGPT, Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, Gemini, Grok, GLM, Kimi, and DeepSeek; the blend is the median of the nine revised estimates. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money.
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