Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the favorite now, and he got there with a backup quarterback throwing to him. In September this board had four names within three cents and no favorite. Two weeks into the season the defending champion leads the league in receiving yards, the two players who were supposed to press him, Ja'Marr Chase and Puka Nacua, have fallen out of the top tier, and the receivers running second and third in the league have no contract to buy.
A Yes contract pays $1 if that player leads the league in regular-season receiving yards, so the price in cents reads as the chance.
How The Favorite Got There
Smith-Njigba has 277 yards, the most in the league, and Sam Darnold threw two of the passes that got him there. A glute strain took Darnold out of the opener, Drew Lock has run the offense since, and Seattle is 2-0. The champion did not need his starting quarterback to become the favorite, which is the strongest thing anyone has said about him this season.
The contract asks 23 cents with a 15-cent bid, the widest spread on the board. Buyers and sellers agree he is the favorite, not on how big. Darnold was limited Wednesday and is questionable for Sunday at Washington.
Chase And Nacua: The Cluster Broke
Chase's knee cost him nothing. The targets did. He has 87 yards on a 2-0 Cincinnati team that has barely needed to throw, and the contract that asked 14 cents three weeks ago asks 6.
Nacua has one game and 74 yards. He missed Monday night with groin soreness, did not practice Wednesday, and is questionable for Sunday night at Denver; Sean McVay said he could practice later in the week. He asks 9 cents. One week without Nacua went to Adams, and his price is still 2 cents. Davante Adams is fourth in the league after a 195-yard Monday night, and in September this page wrote that the market had decided whose yards the Rams' were. It decided wrong for one week and has not repriced.
The Second Price Is Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown has 209 yards and his 19 catches lead the league. The contract asks 10 cents, the second price on the board, and the August panel had him fourth. CeeDee Lamb is next at 7 cents, most of his yards from one afternoon against Washington. Justin Jefferson asked 14 cents in September and asks 4 now.
The Leaders Nobody Can Buy
There is no field contract, so an unlisted leader resolves every one of the 26 contracts No. Through Week 2 the second- and third-place receivers in the league are both unlisted: Chris Olave, the top target of the quarterback who leads the league in passing, and Dalton Kincaid, a tight end in Buffalo. Jalen Coker is unlisted too and ahead of every listed name but three. The August panel's single largest number was 12.2 percent on exactly this outcome, and two weeks in it looks like the sharpest call on the page.
A.J. Brown Is On Injured Reserve
In September Brown's bid doubled in a day and his contract asked 10 cents. He caught 3 passes in the opener at Seattle and went on injured reserve on September 13. The contract asks 1 cent. The panel had him at 3.0 percent before Patriots camp opened and never moved.
What The August Panel Got Right, And Wrong
The eight models ran on August 3, price-blind, and have not been re-run. Read against two weeks of football: the panel's first name, Smith-Njigba, leads the league. Its fourth name, St. Brown, holds the second price. Its field is winning the argument. Where it missed: Chase and Nacua were its second and third names, Jefferson was too high, and its 0.6 percent on Adams is the worst number on the page after a 195-yard night. The numbers stay as they were written, and the ledger grades them at the end of the season.
The Board
Prices are the ask on the Yes contract, pulled the morning of September 24, 2026. Yards are through Week 2 from ESPN with the game-by-game split; the panel column is unchanged from August 3.
| Player | Through Week 2 | Wk 1 / Wk 2 | Yes price | Panel (Aug 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 277 yds · 17 rec · 22 tgt | 122 / 155 | 23¢ | 11.5% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 209 yds · 19 rec | 67 / 142 | 10¢ | 6.7% |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 74 yds · 1 game · questionable | 74 / DNP | 9¢ | 10.6% |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 197 yds · 13 rec | 44 / 153 | 7¢ | 3.4% |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 87 yds · 9 rec · 13 tgt | 12 / 75 | 6¢ | 10.8% |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 147 yds · 11 rec | 92 / 55 | 4¢ | 6.1% |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 221 yds · 11 rec | 26 / 195 | 2¢ | 0.6% |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 150 yds · 1 game · questionable | 150 / DNP | 2¢ | 2.7% |
| Jaylen Waddle (DEN) | 140 yds · 9 rec | 2 / 138 | 2¢ | 1.4% |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 136 yds · 11 rec | 79 / 57 | 2¢ | 2.0% |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 117 yds · 8 rec | 82 / 35 | 2¢ | 1.5% |
| Mike Evans (SF) | 103 yds · 9 rec · questionable | 49 / 54 | 2¢ | 0.5% |
| Drake London (ATL) | 80 yds · 6 rec | 29 / 51 | 2¢ | 2.9% |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 75 yds · 1 game · questionable | 75 / DNP | 2¢ | 3.3% |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 70 yds · 7 rec · questionable | 69 / 1 | 2¢ | 3.9% |
| George Pickens (DAL) | 68 yds · 9 rec | 28 / 40 | 2¢ | 3.9% |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 176 yds · 10 rec | 75 / 101 | 1¢ | 2.9% |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 154 yds · 8 rec | 59 / 95 | 1¢ | 1.2% |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 95 yds · 5 rec | 52 / 43 | 1¢ | 1.1% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 80 yds · 6 rec | 40 / 40 | 1¢ | 1.5% |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 79 yds · 8 rec | 63 / 16 | 1¢ | 2.4% |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 67 yds · 8 rec | 40 / 27 | 1¢ | 1.2% |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 36 yds · 5 rec | 11 / 25 | 1¢ | 1.4% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 33 yds · 1 rec | 33 / 0 | 1¢ | 1.0% |
| A.J. Brown (NE) | 26 yds · 1 game · injured reserve | 26 / IR | 1¢ | 3.0% |
| Brock Bowers (LV, TE) | no games · questionable | DNP / DNP | 1¢ | 0.5% |
| Any unlisted leader | Olave 268 · Kincaid 225 · Coker 204 | 182 / 86 (Olave) | no contract | 12.2% |
Every number in this piece lands in our backtest ledger the day it is generated and gets graded against the real season-ending leaderboard on the public model verdict scoreboard.
What Decides It Next
Four Sunday games move this board. Seattle at Washington, where Darnold's status settles whether the favorite keeps building his lead with Lock or gets his starter back. Las Vegas at New Orleans, where Olave's next target count is the field's argument. The Jets at Detroit for St. Brown. And the Rams at Denver on Sunday night, where a Nacua who practices Thursday or Friday gets his yards back and a Nacua who does not hands Adams a third week alone. At 23 cents the favorite is priced for a full season, so size it like a season-long hold.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Verdicts generated August 3, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data. Prices as of September 24, 2026. Panel: ChatGPT, Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, Gemini 3.1 Pro, GLM 5.2, Kimi K3, and DeepSeek V4, all eight revised in an anonymized cross-read; the blend is the simple mean of the eight revised estimates. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money.
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