A month ago Kalshi's NFL receiving-yards-leader board had a clear top pair, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja'Marr Chase at 15 cents each, Puka Nacua three cents back, and daylight below him. With the season opener a week out it has flattened into a cluster: Smith-Njigba's best bid is 13 cents, Chase and Nacua sit at 12, Justin Jefferson has climbed to 10, and A.J. Brown, a 3.5-cent afterthought in August, is bid at 8 after doubling overnight. One thing did that: money arriving on Jefferson's new quarterback and on Brown's projected Patriots target share. The other thing that happened, a left knee that Chase hyperextended at practice on August 25 and that has him limited all week per Zac Taylor, is the variable the market has conspicuously declined to price. This page keeps the eight-model panel's August 3 numbers exactly as they were generated, because that is the point of a graded verdict, and re-reads them against a board that has moved a long way from the one they priced. The thesis has not changed: this title goes to volume plus 17 games of health, and every move below is the market re-pricing one or the other.
The Quick Answer
Kalshi now has four names within 3 cents of the top: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (13-14¢), Ja'Marr Chase (12-14¢), Puka Nacua (12-13¢) and Justin Jefferson (10-14¢), with A.J. Brown (8-10¢) closing fast after his bid doubled from Tuesday's 4 cents. The eight-model panel, generated August 3 and left untouched, had the top three at 11.5%, 10.8% and 10.6%, Jefferson at 6.1% and Brown at 3.0%, so the market has since moved past the panel on Jefferson and Brown while catching up to its fades: Marvin Harrison Jr. and Davante Adams, 5-cent names in August, are now bid at zero. Chase's knee is the one open variable at the top, and the trade tape says the market has shrugged at it so far. The full board, the tape behind the two big moves, and what the ledger says about a limited-practice receiver a week from kickoff are below.
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New to event markets? How to bet NFL on Kalshi covers the mechanics; this page is the receiving-title layer.
The Market
Kalshi's board (KXLEADERNFLRYDS-27) settles on one headline condition, quoted from the contracts: "If [player] leads Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes." The contract carries its own tie and eligibility mechanics underneath that line. Twenty-six players are listed, 25 wideouts plus tight end Brock Bowers, and the venue lists a close time of February 8, 2027. The book has grown up since our August build: about 106,000 contracts have now traded across the 26 names against roughly 28,000 a month ago, with open interest a little over 102,000. The structural notes still apply. There is no field contract, so an unlisted leader resolves the whole board No. The 26 midpoints now sum to about 108 cents (bids sum to 91, asks to 126), tighter than August's 126-cent midpoint sum, so raw prices are closer to honest probabilities than they were, but a quote is still a quote: on the thin names a single order moves the number.
Two timestamps. Panel verdicts were generated the morning of August 3, 2026, price-blind, and have not been re-run. Prices and the trade tape on this page were fetched from the exchange at 15:21 UTC on September 2, 2026, the day after the Chase practice report.
What Moved Since August 3
The quick way to read a month of a futures board is to line the old midpoints up against the current bid and ask. Here is every name that moved more than a cent.
| Player | Aug 3 midpoint | Sept 2 bid / ask | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown (NE) | 3.5¢ | 8 / 10¢ | Up, bid doubled from Tuesday's 4¢ |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 7¢ | 10 / 14¢ | Up, bid from 8¢ the prior day |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 15¢ | 13 / 14¢ | Down |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 15¢ | 12 / 14¢ | Down |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 6.5¢ | 4 / 6¢ | Down |
| George Pickens (DAL) | 6.5¢ | 1 / 4¢ | Down, most-traded name over the last 24 hours |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 5.5¢ | 0 / 1¢ | Down, bid gone |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 5¢ | 0 / 1¢ | Down, bid gone |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 5¢ | 2 / 3¢ | Down |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 4.5¢ | 1 / 2¢ | Down |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 3¢ | 0 / 1¢ | Down, bid gone |
The row that matters most is not the biggest mover. It is Chase: 15 cents in August, a 12-cent bid the morning after his coach told reporters he would be limited all week, and, per the tape, no seller of any size. Every Chase print of note since August 30 was a buyer lifting 13- and 14-cent offers, including 100 contracts at 14 cents at 06:06 UTC on September 2, hours after the report. The market has priced the knee as a non-event. Whether that is right is the question the rest of this page works through, starting with what the ledger says about receivers who enter September with a practice limitation.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: The Knee Is The Only Open Variable At The Top
Market 12-14 cents, panel 10.8%. The facts on the record: Chase fell to the turf trying to catch a deep pass from Joe Burrow on August 25 and grabbed his left knee. He called it "just a little tweak" and "like a hyperextension," and added, "I couldn't walk for a second, and then I sat down, and then that was it." He sat out the next day's practice. On Tuesday, September 1, Zac Taylor told reporters Chase "will be limited at practice this week" and said he expects both Chase and Tee Higgins, who has a heel contusion, "will be good at the end of week." The Bengals open Sunday, September 13, at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, four days after the Wednesday-night league opener, so the knee gets a slightly longer runway than the kickoff-game teams.
Here is why a title bettor should care more than a Week 1 bettor does. The panel's whole case for Chase is volume: 185 targets last season, the largest funnel in football, and the 2024 title won on exactly that load. Volume needs snaps. The fetched ledger behind this board says five straight receiving champions cleared 1,700 yards, and Smith-Njigba's 1,793 came on a full 17 games; Nacua's 1,715 in 16 games was the board's best per-game rate last season and still did not win. A hyperextension that costs zero games is nothing. A hyperextension that costs two games is an 88-yards-a-game receiver, on last season's 16-game line, conceding roughly 175 yards of pace to a defending champion who averaged 105 over a full 17. The market's 12-cent bid against a 14-cent ask is exactly that uncertainty expressed as a spread: the buyers who lifted 14 cents are betting on Taylor's "good at the end of week," and nobody has yet been willing to bid 13 into it. The forward marker is Friday's practice report. Full participation would make the two-cent dip look like the knee never happened; a second limited week would be the first real crack in the top tier.
A.J. Brown, New England Patriots: The Move To Explain
Market 8-10 cents, panel 3.0%. On the August build Brown was the roster column's biggest surprise, a 3.5-cent name the panel's blend had within a half-cent of the market while two seats, Sonnet at 5.0% and DeepSeek at 6.5%, argued for more. The tape tells you what happened next. From August 30 through the small hours of September 2, all but four contracts of Brown's tape were buyers paying 5 cents, in size: 150 contracts on the 30th, 150 more on the 31st, then a 1,855-contract block and a 250-contract follow-on at 20:25 UTC on August 31, another 289 and 111 on the morning of September 1, and 142 more that night. About 3,000 contracts changed hands at a nickel in three days, the offer at 5 was exhausted, and the sellers who replaced it wanted 10. The bid went from 4 to 8, and the last print on the tape, 135 contracts sold into that 8-cent bid at 13:14 UTC on September 2, is the first seller of size the name has seen all week. Brown is the board's second-most-active name over the last 24 hours, behind only Pickens.
What the buyers are paying for is a room, not a stat line. Brown came to New England on June 1 for a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth, and the depth chart behind him is Romeo Doubs, Mack Hollins, second-year third-rounder Kyle Williams, and a part-time slot in DeMario Douglas. That is the clearest number-one target situation on this board, on a 14-3 offense with Drake Maye, and he opens on Wednesday night, September 9, in Seattle, against Smith-Njigba's team. DeepSeek's 6.5% in the August panel was a target-surge thesis and it led all eight seats; the market has now gone past even that seat. The honest read is that the panel's 3.0% blend was generated before Patriots camp opened and priced Brown's 1,003-yard 2025 baseline; the market is pricing a 150-target Patriots season. Both numbers stay on the page, because the ledger grades them both.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings: The Rebound Case The Market Now Believes
Market 10-14 cents, panel 6.1%. In August several seats flagged Jefferson as the name the public would underrate at 7 cents, though the blend itself sat a shade under the market at 6.1%, on the argument that 141 targets for 1,048 yards and 2 touchdowns was quarterback drag on a former 1,809-yard champion, not decline. The quarterback question has since been answered: Kevin O'Connell named Kyler Murray the starter on August 11 after a camp competition with J.J. McCarthy. The tape shows the money arriving in stages, and it did not start as buying: on the afternoon of August 30, 451 contracts hit the bid at 5 and 6 cents, the largest selling on the board that weekend. Then a 250-contract buy at 9 cents that night, a 497-contract print at 9 cents on September 1, then 171 contracts at 10 cents and a handful at 13 and 14 on the morning of September 2. The bid moved from 8 to 10 while the ask moved out to 14, the widest spread at the top of the board, which is the market saying it believes the rebound but has not agreed on how big it is. Jefferson's 8,800 lifetime contracts are the most on the board; he is the name this market has argued about longest.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba And Puka Nacua: The Tier Held, The Premium Did Not
Smith-Njigba is bid at 13 with a 14-cent ask, down from a 15-cent midpoint in August, and panel first at 11.5% in the revised blend, first or tied-first on seven of eight round-1 cards. Nothing in the record has changed about him: 1,793 yards at 24, 17 games, a 14-3 offense, no target rival within 90 targets. What changed is the shape around him. When Jefferson and Brown were 7 and 3.5 cents, the defending champion carried a clear-favorite premium; with two more names inside 5 cents, the market has stopped paying it. The tape is still all buyers, 100 contracts at 14 cents twice in the last two days, so the drift is the rest of the board rising, not him falling. Nacua is bid at 12 with a 13-cent ask, unchanged in a month, panel 10.6%, and the steadiest tape on the board: five buys at 13 cents since August 30 and no seller of size. His two caps are unchanged too, no 17-game season yet and Davante Adams in the same room, though the Adams contract itself has gone from 5 cents to a zero bid, which tells you the market has decided who the Rams' receiving yards belong to.
The Fades The Market Caught Up To
The August page's loudest disagreements were fades, and a month later the market has closed almost every one of them.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (0-1¢, blend 1.0%). A 5.5-cent contract in August is now bid at zero with a 1-cent ask and no trades in 24 hours. Nothing bad happened to him; a late-July limp was waved off by head coach Mike LaFleur as "cramping. Yep. He's totally good." The 5.5 cents was a name premium, and it has simply drained out.
Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams (0-1¢, blend 0.6%) followed the same path from 5 cents to a zero bid. Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (1-2¢, blend 1.5%) and Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3¢, blend 2.4%) were 4.5 and 5 cents in August and now sit on top of the panel's numbers rather than above them. Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1¢, blend 1.5%) lost his bid entirely.
George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys (1-4¢, blend 3.9%) is the fade that overshot. He was 6.5 cents in August; he is the most-traded name on the board over the last 24 hours, 478 contracts, and the tape is a tug-of-war: buyers took 370 contracts at 3 cents overnight, then a seller dumped 101 into the 1-cent bid at 13:19 UTC. There is no injury on the record. He had what camp reports called an elite summer, and he is playing 2026 on the $27.3 million franchise tag after the extension deadline passed without a deal. The panel's cannibalization read on Dallas, Pickens's 1,429 yards sharing a tree with CeeDee Lamb, was a ceiling argument, not a case for a penny. At a 1-cent bid the market has now moved past the panel in the other direction: against the 1-cent bid Pickens is now the widest panel-over-price gap on the board (3.9% against a penny); at the midpoint of his 1-4 spread it is a near coin flip with Tetairoa McMillan's 2.9% against 1.5 cents.
Dark Horses, Re-Priced
- Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers (1-2¢, Blend 2.9%): still the cheapest name the panel refuses to write off, on a 1,014-yard rookie season as Carolina's clear number one, and still roughly double the price. Zero trades in 24 hours; the book sits a half-cent above where August left it.
- Malik Nabers, New York Giants (3-4¢, Blend 3.9%): the panel's seventh name, priced on the profile rather than the four-game 2025, and the market has drifted half a cent lower rather than higher. 7,200 lifetime contracts say plenty of people have taken the other side.
- Nico Collins, Houston Texans (4-6¢, Blend 3.3%): the quiet drop at the top of the second tier, 6.5 to a 4-cent bid, with 440 contracts bought at 6 cents over the last two days pushing back.
- Jaylen Waddle, Denver Broncos (2-3¢, Blend 1.4%): the busiest name below a nickel outside Pickens, and the board's biggest day-over-day quote move: his ask collapsed from 8 cents to 3 in a day after a 498-contract buy at 3 cents on August 30, 38 contracts printed at 9 cents on August 31, and 199 were sold at 2 cents on September 2. The panel's Denver read, Waddle and Courtland Sutton splitting one tree, is unchanged.
The Board
Prices are the exchange's best bid and ask at 15:21 UTC on September 2, 2026; the panel column is unchanged from August 3, 2026. The panel also priced the no-field scenario, a 12.2% blend that any player not listed leads the league, which is the largest single number in the panel's estimates: the eight seats' most likely outcome is that nobody on this list wins.
The top of the board by best bid, September 2, 2026. Full table below.
| Player | 2025 season | Kalshi bid / ask | AI Blend (Aug 3, after revision) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 1,793 yds · 163 tgt · won 2025 title | 13 / 14¢ | 11.5% |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 1,412 yds · league-high 185 tgt | 12 / 14¢ | 10.8% |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 1,715 yds in 16 games | 12 / 13¢ | 10.6% |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 1,048 yds · 141 tgt | 10 / 14¢ | 6.1% |
| A.J. Brown (NE) | 1,003 yds · 121 tgt | 8 / 10¢ | 3.0% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 1,401 yds · 172 tgt | 6 / 8¢ | 6.7% |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 1,077 yds · 117 tgt | 6 / 7¢ | 3.4% |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 1,117 yds · 120 tgt | 4 / 6¢ | 3.3% |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 271 yds in 4 games | 3 / 4¢ | 3.9% |
| Drake London (ATL) | 919 yds in 12 games | 3 / 4¢ | 2.9% |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 1,211 yds · 118 tgt | 2 / 3¢ | 2.7% |
| Jaylen Waddle (DEN) | 910 yds · 100 tgt | 2 / 3¢ | 1.4% |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 938 yds · 127 tgt | 2 / 3¢ | 2.4% |
| George Pickens (DAL) | 1,429 yds · 137 tgt | 1 / 4¢ | 3.9% |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 1,014 yds · 122 tgt | 1 / 2¢ | 2.9% |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 846 yds · 11 TD | 1 / 2¢ | 1.2% |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 661 yds in 12 games | 1 / 2¢ | 1.1% |
| Mike Evans (SF) | 368 yds in 8 games | 1 / 2¢ | 0.5% |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 789 yds · 106 tgt | 1 / 2¢ | 1.5% |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 395 yds in 7 games | 1 / 2¢ | 2.0% |
| Brock Bowers (LV, TE) | 680 yds in 12 games | 1 / 2¢ | 0.5% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 608 yds in 12 games | 0 / 1¢ | 1.0% |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 850 yds · 99 tgt | 0 / 1¢ | 1.2% |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 789 yds · 14 TD · age 33 | 0 / 1¢ | 0.6% |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 1,017 yds · 124 tgt | 0 / 1¢ | 1.4% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 707 yds in 14 games | 0 / 1¢ | 1.5% |
| Any Unlisted Leader (The Field) | — | no contract | 12.2% |
More live boards from the same panel: NFL rushing yards leader 2026 · Taylor, Henry and Robinson 12¢ · Fantasy WR1 2026 · Nacua 16¢ · NFL MVP 2027 · Allen 10¢
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Read the top five rows together and the month's story is in one column: in August the panel's blend sat under the market on all five, a 100-point blend against a 126-cent board, but its gaps were narrowest on Jefferson and Brown; the market has since moved toward the panel on the favorites and straight through it on the two risers. That is what a price-blind number is for. It was generated without the tape, and now the tape gets to argue with it in public.
Every Seat's Round-1 Number
The per-model split before the revision round, top of the board only, exactly as generated on August 3. On a phone this table scrolls sideways; the board above carries the headline numbers, which average all eight seats' revised estimates.
| Player | ChatGPT | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10.5 | 11.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 10.5 |
| Puka Nacua | 12.5 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 11.0 | 8.5 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 8.5 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6.8 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 7.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | 5.8 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 |
| George Pickens | 4.2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| Nico Collins | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| A.J. Brown | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 6.5 |
| The Field (Unlisted) | 14.8 | 8.3 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 11.7 | 10.0 |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 85% on 7,696 graded calls · Claude Fable 87% on 1,454 graded calls · Claude Opus 87% on 1,526 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 85% on 1,502 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 6,384 graded calls · GLM 82% on 2,900 graded calls · Kimi 84% on 3,072 graded calls · DeepSeek 81% on 2,944 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated August 3, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Every number in this piece lands in our backtest ledger the day it is generated and gets graded against the real season-ending leaderboard on the public model verdict scoreboard.
What Reprices This Board Next
In order of how soon they land: Friday's Bengals practice report, which either closes Chase's 12-14 spread or opens it; Wednesday night in Seattle, where Brown's first Patriots target count and Smith-Njigba's first line arrive in the same box score; Murray's first real snaps to Jefferson on September 13; and then the first month of target shares, which separates funnels from committees faster than yardage does. The panel's August numbers stay on this page through all of it. The price column carries its fetch stamp for exactly that reason.
Receiving Title Odds Vs Your Fantasy Draft
For fantasy drafters, this board is a market-priced signal on receiving-yard upside and perceived target security, not a projection. The same names lead the fantasy WR1 board, where Nacua (16 cents) and Chase (15) sit ahead of Smith-Njigba, and the same volume logic runs the rushing yards leader board, where Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson are tied at 12 cents. The full map of fantasy-relevant Kalshi families is the fantasy football prediction markets hub, and for weekly target and route data against live lines once the season starts, Stokastic Prop Tools runs that exercise every slate.
How To Read These Prices
- Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. 18+, and availability varies by state as of September 2026.
- Liquidity. About 106,000 contracts across 26 names, nearly four times August's book, but still thin at the tails: a 1-cent bid against a 4-cent ask on Pickens is one order away from either number, and a single 1,855-contract block moved Brown's whole book. The midpoints sum to roughly 108 cents; compare prices to each other, not to 100.
- Spread Risk Vs Injury Risk. Jefferson's 10-14 and Chase's 12-14 look alike and are not: Jefferson's spread is disagreement about a healthy player's ceiling, Chase's is a practice report. One closes on a box score, the other on Friday's injury list.
- No Field Contract. An unlisted leader resolves every one of these No, and the panel's single largest number (12.2%) is that outcome. Every named price already carries that haircut.
- Time. The venue's listed close is February 8, 2027; capital is committed for the full season.
- Not Advice. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
The Bottom Line
A month ago this was a two-man board with a panel that quietly liked two cheaper names. Now it is a four-man board, the two cheaper names are no longer cheap, and the one thing the market has refused to price is the injury report on its co-favorite. So here are the four checks that decide whether the current prices survive September. Friday: whether Chase is listed as a full participant, because the 12-14 spread is the market's open question and a clean report may not leave it open long. Wednesday night in Seattle: Brown's target count on a pace that matters, which on this card means the 160-plus-target loads Smith-Njigba (163) and Chase (185) carried last season, and Smith-Njigba's own count in the same game. September 13: Murray's first real snaps to Jefferson, and whether Chase is on the field at all. Then Week 4: which of the four cluster names is still on a 160-target, 100-yards-a-game pace once the sample is real, because the ledger's last five winners all cleared 1,700 and none of them got there on a committee share. Every number above gets graded in public when the season's final leaderboard settles it, on the same scoreboard as the rest of the verdict lane.
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Verdicts generated August 3, 2026, price-blind. Prices and trade tape as of September 2, 2026, 15:21 UTC. Panel: ChatGPT, Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, Gemini 3.1 Pro, GLM 5.2, Kimi K3, and DeepSeek V4, all eight revised in an anonymized cross-read; the blend is the simple mean of the eight revised estimates. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Ja'Marr Chase photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
