What Will Trump Say In New York? Kalshi's Mention Market Puts ICE At 94¢

The Quick Answer

What will Trump say in New York? Ahead of the President's remarks in Nassau County on Friday, August 14, the Kalshi "mention" market has ICE at 94¢ (a 94% chance), Biden at 90¢, and National Guard at 84¢ as the words most likely to come out of the microphone, while Crypto (3¢, a 3% chance) and a ceasefire reference (6¢) sit near zero. Kalshi is running 39 separate yes/no contracts on this one speech, and the whole board reads like exactly what this event is: a law-and-order rally at a police academy, not an economy speech. The full board, the words the crowd is least sure about, and the one 73¢ price with a New York twist you have to see are all below.

The Event: A Crime Speech At A Police Academy

At 3:00pm ET today, Trump speaks at the Nassau County Police Academy on Long Island, an 89,000-square-foot police training and intelligence center. He is joined by Attorney General Todd Blanche and FBI Director Kash Patel, and the whole appearance is built around one message: the 2025 FBI crime report showing the largest year-over-year drop in violent crime on record — roughly an 18% fall in murders and a similar drop in robberies. He toured the facilities with Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, the Republican running for governor.

That setting does most of the pricing by itself. A cops-and-crime speech on Long Island tilts the whole catalog toward immigration, policing, and New York politics, and you can read that tilt straight off the contract prices. The event is carried live on air, which matters, because these markets only resolve off a live, press-covered broadcast.

How A Kalshi Mention Market Actually Works

This is the part most people get wrong the first time, so it is worth being precise. Each word on the board is its own independent yes/no contract. "ICE" at 94¢ is not competing with "Biden" at 90¢ for a single slot. Both can hit, neither can hit, or every word on the board can hit. Which is why the prices do not add up to 100 the way a win-total or a moneyline market does — there is no single winner here, just 39 separate questions about one speech.

A price in cents is just the market's probability. ICE at 94¢ means the crowd thinks there is about a 94% chance Trump says "ICE" during the remarks. Biden at 90¢ is a 90% read, National Guard at 84¢ is 84%, and Sanctuary at 77¢ is 77%. If he says the word, that contract settles at 100¢; if he doesn't, it settles at 0¢. (If you have never seen prices quoted this way, our explainer on why Kalshi prices everything in cents walks through the full translation to American odds.)

The settlement rules are stricter than they look. The exact word — or a plural or possessive form of it — has to be spoken by Trump himself, in an official capacity, during the live event. Reading a chyron doesn't count, a hot-mic aside doesn't count, and archival clips don't count. There is even a "the event does not qualify" contract, sitting at 1¢, which pays out only if the speech is cancelled or never happens on camera. The market is telling you it fully expects this to go off as planned.

The Full Board: 39 Words, Priced

Here is every contract, sorted by price, as of 8:15 a.m. ET on August 14, 2026, a few hours before the speech. Treat these as a live snapshot: they move as money comes in and, obviously, the moment Trump starts talking.

Word Or Phrase	Price	What it's really pricing
ICE	94¢	Immigration enforcement, the through-line of the speech
Biden	90¢	His default foil; near-automatic at any rally
Hottest	84¢	"Hottest country," a stock applause line
Communist / Communism	84¢	The go-to label for NYC Democrats
National Guard	84¢	Crime and city-policing framing
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	83¢	Energy-prices reflex
Fake News	83¢	Press in the room
Radical Left	80¢	Standard opponent framing
Venezuela	79¢	Immigration and Maduro tie-in
Mental Institution	78¢	A recurring immigration talking point
Sanctuary	77¢	"Sanctuary city," central to the crime pitch
Invest / Invested / Investment	77¢	Policing and economy filler
Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement	75¢	Blakeman's governor run in the room
Stock Market	74¢	Economy aside
Kathy / Hochul	73¢	New York's governor (more on this below)
MAGA / Make America Great Again	71¢	Brand staple
Fraud	70¢	Crime-and-elections crossover
Transgender	68¢	Culture-war reference
First Term	63¢	Self-comparison
Save America Act	61¢	Legislative shout-out
Iran (3+ Times)	56¢	Note: needs three separate mentions
Deport / Deported / Deportation	55¢	Core immigration word, priced as a coin flip
America First	54¢	Slogan, but not guaranteed
Zohran / Mamdani	45¢	New York City politics
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	45¢	Economy messaging
Healthcare	44¢	Policy grab-bag
NYPD	44¢	Local police shout-out
China / Chinese	42¢	Trade reflex, softer at a crime event
AI / Artificial Intelligence	42¢	Tech aside
Barack Hussein Obama	37¢	The full-name callback
Kamala	37¢	Fading from the rotation
Supreme Court	36¢	Legal reference
Maduro	31¢	Venezuela-specific
TrumpRX	30¢	Drug-pricing plug
Windmill	17¢	Energy pet peeve, off-theme here
Knicks	13¢	New York sports wink
Ceasefire	6¢	Foreign policy, off-topic today
Crypto / Bitcoin	3¢	Almost no fit with a crime speech
Event Does Not Qualify	1¢	Pays only if the speech never happens

The row I keep coming back to is not at the top. "Transgender" at 68¢ is one of the most heavily traded words on the board — nearly 51,000 contracts. At 68¢ the crowd is not split down the middle; it leans yes, betting that a culture-war reference works its way into a crime speech more often than not. The genuine coin flips sit lower, in the 54¢ to 56¢ cluster, and that is where the real disagreement lives: a Long Island police event that stays tightly on message versus one where he ranges wider.

Reading The Venue In The Prices

Start with the near-locks, because they are not random. ICE (94¢), National Guard (84¢), Sanctuary (77¢), and Venezuela (79¢) are the immigration-and-policing spine of the speech, and the crowd has priced them like near-certainties. You are watching the FBI-crime-report framing show up as probabilities: if the whole point of the day is violent crime and enforcement, "ICE" is about as safe a bet as this board offers.

Then look at what the market is genuinely unsure about, the cluster sitting between 44¢ and 56¢. "Deport" at 55¢ is the most surprising one to me. On an immigration-heavy law-and-order speech, you would expect deportation language to be a lock, yet it sits at a coin flip. The read is subtle: the market thinks Trump talks about enforcement all day but may frame it around ICE, sanctuary cities, and specific countries rather than the literal word "deport." That is the kind of distinction these markets live and die on, and it is exactly why the strict "exact word" settlement rule matters. If you want the deeper version of how sharp bettors hunt for those gaps, we broke it down in how to actually win on Kalshi.

A Worked Example: What 55¢ On "Deport" Actually Costs

Say you disagree with the crowd on "Deport," which sits at 55¢. Here is the whole trade, start to finish. One Yes contract costs you 55¢ and pays out $1.00 if Trump says the word, so you are risking 55 cents to win 45. Your breakeven is right there in the price: at 55¢, you need the word to hit more than 55% of the time just to profit. If I have watched enough of these speeches to believe "deport" is really more like a 70% word on an immigration-heavy event, then I am getting a 70% outcome for a 55% price, and that 15-point gap is the entire edge. Buy 100 contracts and you have put up $55 to win $45. If instead you think the crowd is right and it is a genuine coin flip, there is no trade: a 55¢ price on a 55% event is fair, and you keep your money. That is how every one of these 39 rows works, one word at a time.

The New York Tells

Because this is Long Island, the board is stuffed with local references, and they sort themselves into a neat little hierarchy. "Kathy / Hochul" sits at 73¢, "Zohran / Mamdani" at 45¢, and "Knicks," the pure New York sports wink, down at 13¢. The market is basically saying Trump is very likely to name the governor, a coin flip to wade into New York City politics, and unlikely to reach for a basketball reference at a police academy.

That 73¢ on Hochul is where it gets interesting. New York's governor, Kathy Hochul, and Attorney General Letitia James sued Kalshi on July 31 for as much as $36 billion, calling the exchange an illegal, unlicensed gambling operation (the state's own announcement is here). So on Kalshi, one of the market's most likely names to hear is the very governor trying to shut Kalshi down in this exact state. It is a genuinely strange loop, and it is a useful reminder of where these contracts sit legally. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, it is 18+, and it is not available in every state. New York hasn't shut it down; the state is trying to, and that lawsuit is a pending fight rather than a settled ban.

The Bottom Of The Board Tells You What This Isn't

The forward promise from up top pays off down here. The three cheapest words on the board are not longshots so much as category errors: Crypto/Bitcoin at 3¢, a ceasefire reference at 6¢, and windmills at 17¢. Those are the words that dominate his economy and foreign-policy speeches, and the market has correctly stripped them out for a crime event at a police academy. It is the same logic that put "ICE" at 94¢, just run in reverse. A mention board is really a bet on the theme of a speech, and the cheap end of this one is the crowd stating, in prices, that this is not an energy rally or a foreign-policy address.

Crypto at 3¢ is the cleanest example, and worth one number: more than 71,000 contracts have traded on it, more than any other word on the board, and it is still priced at three cents. That is not indecision; it is a large, confident crowd agreeing on a near-zero — the opposite of the "Transgender" fight up at 68¢.

If words aren't your thing and you would rather bet the actual games this weekend, OddsShopper's free expert picks are a better use of your time than trying to out-guess a speech; that is where the real edges are for people who want to shop a number across the sportsbooks. New to trading on the exchange? Our guide to betting on Kalshi covers the mechanics, and for the curious, we break down how Kalshi makes money on all of this — the fees and the spread.

Frequently Asked Questions

What will Trump say in New York, according to Kalshi? As of this morning, the Kalshi mention market's most likely words are ICE (94¢), Biden (90¢), National Guard, Communist, and "Hottest" (all 84¢). Those are the words we would treat as near-locks; everything from "Deport" down to "Crypto" is a live question.

How does a Kalshi mention market settle? Each word is its own yes/no contract that resolves to 100¢ if Trump speaks that exact word (or its plural or possessive) in an official capacity during the live, televised remarks, and 0¢ if he doesn't. Reading it off a screen or saying it off-mic does not count.

Why don't the prices add up to 100? Because every word is independent. This is not one market with a single winner; it is 39 separate bets on the same speech, and any number of them can hit. If that idea is new to you, our guide on how to bet on Kalshi covers the mechanics.

Is Kalshi legal and safe to use? Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange and is 18+, but it is not available in every state and is facing active legal challenges (including New York's). Check your own state's status before you trade.

In Summary

A Kalshi mention board looks like trivia and prices like analysis. Line up the 39 contracts and you are not looking at a word cloud, you are looking at a crowd's read on a single speech: an immigration-and-policing event on Long Island, near-certain to hit "ICE" and "National Guard," genuinely split on whether "deport" or "America First" make the cut, and all but sure to skip crypto and ceasefires. The venue is the model. The one price you will remember is the 73¢ on Hochul, the governor suing the exchange, quoted by the exchange, on a market about a speech in her own state. Trump goes live at 3:00pm ET, and every one of these settles the moment he stops talking.