UFC Odds: Sharp Fair Odds for Every Fight
Sportsbooks post UFC odds on every fight, but the posted price always carries a margin, so it overstates each fighter's real chance. The useful number is the fair one: the true probability with the vig stripped out. We pull that for the whole upcoming card from Pinnacle, one of the sharpest books in the world, de-vigged so the margin is gone. The result is a clean read on every fight on the 2026-06-20 card, and a baseline you can hold each book's price up against. Where another book pays a longer price than the fair number below, that gap is your edge.
These numbers refresh as the card nears (last updated 2026-06-15 13:28 CDT), so treat the percentages as the read and always shop the live price on the OddsShopper UFC odds screen before you bet.
In Summary (TL;DR)
- Biggest favorite: Andre Lima is the heaviest chalk on the card, with a fair win chance of about 84%.
- Closest fight: Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos is the nearest thing to a coin flip (52.6% to 47.4%), where the best price matters most.
- Live underdogs: Luana Santos (47.4%), Farid Basharat (46.5%), Kyoji Horiguchi (40.9%), Hyder Amil (40.5%).
- What the numbers are: Pinnacle's de-vigged fair win probabilities for all 11 fights, not a prediction of who wins.
- How to use them: compare each fair number to what your book pays and bet only where the price is longer than fair.
How We Get a Fair Number
A UFC price is only worth betting when a fighter's real chance is higher than the number implies, so the whole job is getting that real chance right. Pinnacle is the sharpest input available:
The OddsShopper Odds Screen.
- Pinnacle prices the fight, taking sharp money and moving to the true number faster than most books.
- We de-vig it, stripping the built-in margin so the two fighters' probabilities add back to 100%. That leaves the market's honest read on the fight.
There is no separate simulation here, just the sharpest market read with the juice removed. That makes these numbers a benchmark, not a system: the bet is wherever a softer book is paying a price that beats this fair line.
UFC Fair Odds: The Full Card
Here are the de-vigged fair win probabilities for every fight on the 2026-06-20 card, refreshed from the latest run.
| Favorite | Fair win % | Underdog | Fair win % |
|---|
| Bia Mesquita | 82.5% | Melissa Mullins | 17.5% |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 68.0% | Andre Fili | 32.0% |
| Karol Rosa | 52.6% | Luana Santos | 47.4% |
| Manel Kape | 59.1% | Kyoji Horiguchi | 40.9% |
| Michael Aswell | 75.7% | Gaston Bolanos | 24.3% |
| Andre Lima | 83.8% | Kevin Borjas | 16.2% |
| Navajo Stirling | 72.3% | Ion Cutelaba | 27.7% |
| Ethyn Ewing | 53.5% | Farid Basharat | 46.5% |
| Allan Nascimento | 63.8% | Mitch Raposo | 36.2% |
| Christian Rodriguez | 59.5% | Hyder Amil | 40.5% |
| Murtazali Magomedov | 71.0% | Melsik Baghdasaryan | 29.0% |
Read each row as the fair chance, then go find a better price. A fighter with a fair win chance of about 84% is worth betting only if your book pays a longer price than that fair number; if your book's price is shorter than fair, you are paying the market a premium and should pass.
Where the Value Hides
The fair number tells you what each fighter should cost. Value is where a book disagrees with it.
- Heaviest chalk: Bia Mesquita (82.5%), Michael Aswell (75.7%), Andre Lima (83.8%). Laying a big favorite means risking a lot to win a little, so it is only worth it when a book is short-pricing the underdog and paying you a long enough number on the favorite, or when you can find that favorite in a parlay or a prop at a fair price.
- Coin-flip fights: Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos (52.6% / 47.4%), Ethyn Ewing vs Farid Basharat (53.5% / 46.5%). In a near 50/50 fight, a few cents of price is the whole edge, so shopping every book is what separates a good bet from a bad one.
- Live underdogs: Luana Santos (47.4%), Farid Basharat (46.5%), Kyoji Horiguchi (40.9%), Hyder Amil (40.5%). These dogs have a real chance to win outright, so a generous plus-money price on them can carry genuine value even though they are not favored.
How to Bet These the Right Way
- Shop every book. UFC prices vary a lot between sportsbooks, and on a fight near a coin flip that gap is real money, which is exactly why line shopping is the habit that pays. The OddsShopper UFC odds screen puts every book's price in one place, and OS Pro's Portfolio EV flags where a price beats its fair number.
- Bet the gap, not the name. Take the fighter whose price is longer than the fair chance above, and pass when your book is paying less than fair. Many fights will not offer a bettable edge, and no bet is the right call there.
- Size for variance. A single fight is one punch from going either way, so stake each bet small, never chase, and judge the approach over many fights rather than one card.
FAQ
What are the UFC odds for this card?
The table above lists the de-vigged fair win probability for every fight on the 2026-06-20 card, led by Andre Lima at about 84%. Prices move as the card nears, so check the live OddsShopper UFC odds screen for the current number across books.
What does de-vigged fair odds mean?
It is the market price with the sportsbook's margin removed, so the two fighters' probabilities add back to 100%. It is the honest read on the fight, before the book's cut.
Why do these percentages not match my sportsbook?
Your book builds a margin into its price and the lines move daily. These are fair-value estimates from the latest run; always compare books and bet the best live number.
How do I find a value bet in UFC?
Compare each fair number above to what your book is paying. When a book pays a longer price than the fair chance, that is a positive-expected-value bet. The OddsShopper UFC odds screen makes that comparison fast.
Is betting on the UFC legal?
Sports betting is legal in many regulated U.S. states, but availability and rules vary by state. Bet only where it is offered, and play 21+ and within your means.
Bet the UFC With an Edge
Every fight on the card has a fair number, and the edge is always the same: find the book paying a price longer than that fair chance, take the best number across books, and size it sensibly. The favorites, the coin flips, and the live dogs above are where to start looking.
Shop every UFC price and bet the value on the OddsShopper UFC odds screen, where OS Pro's Portfolio EV flags where a price beats its fair number. Start with OS Pro and take 20% off your first payment with code UFCODDS20: Get OS Pro.
Bet only where it is legal and available, and only with money you can afford to risk. 21+ where legal; if betting stops being fun, step away.
