Sportsbooks post UFC odds on every fight, but the posted price always carries a margin, so it overstates each fighter's real chance. The useful number is the fair one: the market's implied probability with the vig stripped out. We pull that for the upcoming card from Pinnacle, one of the sharpest books in the world, de-vigged so the margin is gone. The result is a clean read on the Saturday, August 1 card, headlined by Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez, and a baseline you can hold each book's price up against. Where another book pays a longer price than the fair number below, that gap is the potential edge worth evaluating. And one fight on this card is the perfect example of why the moneyline is often the wrong window to buy that edge, which we will get to below.
These numbers refresh as the card nears (last updated Jul 31, 2026 · 4:33 AM CDT), so treat the percentages as the read and always shop the live price on the OddsShopper UFC odds screen before you bet.
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The Quick Answer
- Biggest Favorite: Mateusz Rebecki is the heaviest chalk on the card, with a fair win chance of about 84%.
- Closest Fight: Noah Gugnon vs Milos Janicic is the nearest thing to a coin flip (51.4% to 48.6%), where the best price matters most.
- Live Underdogs: Milos Janicic (48.6%), Dusko Todorovic (41.5%).
- What The Numbers Are: Pinnacle's de-vigged fair win probabilities for the 14 fights priced at the latest refresh, not a prediction of who wins.
- How To Use Them: compare each fair number to what your book pays and bet only where the price is longer than fair.
The full board (each priced fight's fair number, plus how often it ends inside the distance) is in the table below, along with the favorites whose finish markets are worth checking before you ever touch a moneyline.
How We Get A Fair Number
A UFC price is only worth betting when a fighter's real chance is higher than the number implies, so the whole job is getting that real chance right. Here is how these numbers are built:
- Pinnacle Prices The Fight, taking sharp money and moving to its best estimate faster than most books, which makes it one of the sharpest inputs available.
- We De-Vig It, stripping the built-in margin so the two fighters' probabilities add back to 100%. That margin is how sportsbooks make money; removing it leaves the market's honest read on the fight. (Curious how big the cut is at your book? Run the numbers through our hold calculator guide.)
There is no separate simulation here, just the sharpest market read with the juice removed. That makes these numbers a benchmark, not a system: the bet is wherever a softer book is paying a price that beats this fair line.
UFC Fight Odds: The Full Card
Here are the de-vigged fair win probabilities for the 14 fights priced on the Saturday, August 1 card at the latest run, plus how often each fight is expected to end inside the distance.
| Favorite | Fair win % | Underdog | Fair win % | Ends inside distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Rebecki | 84.1% | Kyle Prepolec | 15.9% | 61.8% |
| Bogdan Grad | 64.7% | Dennis Buzukja | 35.3% | 48.5% |
| Nina Milosevic | 80.3% | Hailey Cowan | 19.7% | 48.7% |
| Jovan Leka | 69.2% | Alexander Poppeck | 30.8% | 54.7% |
| Stephanie Luciano | 74.1% | Marina Spasic | 25.9% | 31.8% |
| Robert Valentin | 58.5% | Dusko Todorovic | 41.5% | 75.8% |
| Navajo Stirling | 73.0% | Jan Blachowicz | 27.0% | 38.6% |
| Borislav Nikolic | 62.5% | Mark Vologdin | 37.5% | 51.0% |
| Aleksandar Rakic | 76.2% | Marcin Tybura | 23.8% | 56.8% |
| Noah Gugnon | 51.4% | Milos Janicic | 48.6% | 69.2% |
| Michael Oliveira | 75.4% | Oban Elliott | 24.6% | 62.6% |
| Vlasto Cepo | 74.0% | Gilbert Urbina | 26.0% | 85.9% |
| Ludovit Klein | 67.8% | Tofiq Musayev | 32.2% | 44.4% |
| Uros Medic | 78.3% | Daniel Rodriguez | 21.7% | 88.1% |
Read each row as the fair chance, then go find a better price. A fighter with a fair win chance of about 84% is worth betting only if your book pays a longer price than that fair number; if your book's price is shorter than fair, you are paying the market a premium and should pass.
Where The Value Hides
The fair number tells you what each fighter should cost. Value is where a book disagrees with it.
- Big Favorites (75%+ Fair): Mateusz Rebecki (84.1%), Nina Milosevic (80.3%), Uros Medic (78.3%), Aleksandar Rakic (76.2%), Michael Oliveira (75.4%). Laying a big favorite means risking a lot to win a little, so it is only worth it when a book is short-pricing the underdog and paying you a long enough number on the favorite, or when your read on how the favorite wins is strong enough to shop the finish markets instead, which the next section walks through.
- Coin-Flip Fights: Noah Gugnon vs Milos Janicic (51.4% / 48.6%). In a near 50/50 fight, a few cents of price is the whole edge, so shopping every book is what separates a good bet from a bad one. At 51.4% to 48.6%, the fair prices are roughly -106 and +106, so whichever side you like, the book you bet it at matters more than the side; it is the purest price-shopping spot on the card.
- Live Underdogs: 2 underdogs clear a 40% fair win chance here: Milos Janicic (48.6%), Dusko Todorovic (41.5%). These dogs have a real chance to win outright: Milos Janicic at 48.6% works out to +106 fair, so any book paying a longer price than that is paying above the de-vigged number.
Price The Finish, Not Just The Winner
That promise from the top, the reason the moneyline is often the wrong window on a heavy favorite, is easiest to see on this card's biggest number. Mateusz Rebecki carries a fair win chance of 84.1%, which converts to about -529 as a fair moneyline. Risking that much to win a little is a rough ticket. But the same fair-odds engine also prices the derivative markets, and they tell a sharper story:
- Most Likely Single Outcome: Mateusz Rebecki - KO/TKO at 29.8% fair (roughly +236 as a fair price). The same tool prices Mateusz Rebecki by decision at 27.4%, so the market is telling you how it expects the win to happen, not just who wins.
- Fight Ends Inside The Distance: 61.8% fair, about -162.
Here is the worked example. Backing Mateusz Rebecki on the moneyline at a book paying worse than -529 is a losing price by this read. The finish markets are a narrower version of that read, not the same bet: KO/TKO for Rebecki is a 29.8% proposition, not the 84.1% one, and it loses if he wins any other way. What the plus-money price buys you is a much better payout on the specific way the fight is most likely to end. Method and round markets also usually carry more juice than a moneyline, so the rule is the same as everywhere else on this page: only cross over when a posted price clears the fair number above, and let the gap, not the plus sign, make the decision. (New to converting percentages into American prices? Our plus/minus odds guide covers it in two minutes.)
The most extreme version on this card is Uros Medic: Uros Medic - KO/TKO alone is priced at 62.1% fair (about -164), more likely than not on its own, against a fair moneyline of -361. When a single specific finish carries that much of the win case, the finish market is doing most of the moneyline's work at a fraction of the stake. It still cashes 62.1% of the time instead of 78.3%, though, so demand a wider gap to fair before you cross.
The takeaway: the fair number tells you who is likely to win; the finish markets tell you how, at a better payout but a lower hit rate. On heavy chalk, check the method and inside-the-distance prices against their fair numbers before you ever lay the moneyline.
How To Bet These The Right Way
- Shop every book. UFC prices vary a lot between sportsbooks, and on a fight priced 51.4% to 48.6% like Noah Gugnon vs Milos Janicic, the gap between the best and worst posted number can be most of the edge; shopping it is how you avoid giving away expected value. The OddsShopper UFC odds screen puts every book's price in one place; the tool surfaces the best available number on each fight, and OS Pro's Portfolio EV flags where a price beats its fair number: the same fair-vs-posted comparison this article does, run live across every book and market. Our guide to the OddsShopper +EV tool shows the workflow.
- Bet the gap, not the name. Take the fighter whose price is longer than the fair chance above, and pass when your book is paying less than fair. Many fights will not offer a bettable edge, and no bet is the right call there.
- Size for variance. Even Mateusz Rebecki at 84.1% fair still loses about one time in 6 by this read, and at a fair price near -529 one loss erases several wins. Stake each bet small, never chase, and judge the approach over many fights rather than one card. If you parlay favorites for price, keep it disciplined: our parlay-building guide covers how to do it without torching the edge.
If you would rather start from a curated card, our experts post free expert picks today across every sport OddsShopper covers, UFC included when the card warrants it.
FAQ
What are the UFC odds for this card? The table above lists the de-vigged fair win probability for the 14 fights priced on the Saturday, August 1 card, led by Mateusz Rebecki at about 84%. Prices move as the card nears, so check the live OddsShopper UFC odds screen for the current number across books.
What does de-vigged fair odds mean? It is the market price with the sportsbook's margin removed, so the two fighters' probabilities add back to 100%. It is the honest read on the fight, before the book's cut.
Why do these percentages not match my sportsbook? Your book builds a margin into its price and the lines move daily. These are fair-value estimates from the latest run; always compare books and bet the best live number.
How do I find a value bet in UFC? Compare each fair number above to what your book is paying. When a book pays a longer price than the fair chance, that is a positive-expected-value bet. The OddsShopper UFC odds screen makes that comparison fast.
Should I bet the moneyline or the method of victory? Whichever market your read actually supports at a price that beats its fair number. The moneyline pays on any win; a method bet pays only on that specific finish, so it hits less often but pays more. Method and round markets also usually carry more juice than the moneyline, so demand a wider gap between the posted price and the fair number before crossing over, as the worked example above walks through.
Is betting on the UFC legal? Sports betting is legal in many regulated U.S. states, but availability and rules vary by state. Bet only where it is offered, and play 21+ and within your means.
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Bet The UFC With An Edge
Every priced fight on the card has a fair number, and the process is always the same: compare live prices to the de-vigged benchmark, take only the prices that clear it, and size sensibly. The favorites, the coin flips, and the live dogs above are where to start looking. And when the chalk is as heavy as Mateusz Rebecki's 84%, check the finish markets against their fair numbers before you lay the moneyline.
Shop every UFC price and bet the value on the OddsShopper UFC odds screen, where OS Pro's Portfolio EV flags where a price beats its fair number. Start with OS Pro and take 20% off your first payment with code UFCODDS20.
Bet only where it is legal and available, and only with money you can afford to risk. 21+ where legal; if betting stops being fun, step away.
