The Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays home run board is below — every priced bat, with the book that paid the most on each.
On the board for Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays: Kazuma Okamoto, Willson Contreras, George Springer, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 21 |
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +568 | ProphetX | 15.0% | 31 |
| George Springer (TOR) | +585 | DraftKings 🎁 | 14.6% | 31 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 30 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +730 | DraftKings 🎁 | 12.0% | 22 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | +770 | NoVig | 11.5% | 31 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | +810 | DraftKings 🎁 | 11.0% | 29 |
| Adley Rutschman (BOS) | +852 | NoVig | 10.5% | 22 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 11, 2026 · 09:55 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Rogers Centre: park index 114.4 · wind 4 mph.
- Willson Contreras (BOS) — punishes sliders, and that is 46% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +525
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 42% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +506
- George Springer (TOR) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 31% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +585 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +567
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 31% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +770 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +706 · NoVig +770
- Charles McAdoo (TOR) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +813 · NoVig +900
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +920 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +882 · NoVig +852
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +730 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +666 · NoVig +700
- Masataka Yoshida (BOS) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1000 at TheScore | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +953
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+135). Bet now → DraftKings
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-170). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails likes Boston Red Sox -0.5 Run Line 1st5 (-115). Bet now
- Stacks Covers on Tails likes Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135). Bet now
- MoneyBall Metrics on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Over 8 Total Runs (-120).
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-145). Bet now
- @BettingPix on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Toronto Blue Jays Over 3.5 Team Runs (-110). Bet now
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Boston Red Sox / Toronto Blue Jays Under 8 Total Runs.
- EMac on Tails likes these plays:
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails (#8 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+525). Bet now → Bet365
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Total Batter Walks (+210). Bet now → Bet365
More from these experts on Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays. CharlieChip, FOTP, JediModi, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, Rebel Mickie, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals · Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox · Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves · Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals · [Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins](/articles/expert-picks/pittsburgh-pirates-vs-miami-marlins-hom. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
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