The Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks home run board is below — every priced bat, with the book that paid the most on each.
On the board for Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks: Hunter Goodman, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Max Kepler, James McCann, Nolan Arenado are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Goodman (COL) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 34 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 35 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | +460 | Unibet | 17.9% | 35 |
| Max Kepler (ARI) | +593 | DraftKings 🎁 | 14.4% | 24 |
| James McCann (ARI) | +600 | Circa | 14.3% | 5 |
| Nolan Arenado (ARI) | +650 | Unibet | 13.3% | 34 |
| Lars Nootbaar (STL) | +680 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.8% | 31 |
| Willi Castro (COL) | +730 | Bet99ON | 12.0% | 31 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Bet $5+, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly.
Which of these prices is actually +EV?OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 11, 2026 · 03:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Chase Field: park index 108.1 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 44% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +381 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +358 · NoVig +344
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +398 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +387 · NoVig +376
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +450 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +421 · NoVig +400
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +794 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +794 · NoVig +770
- Max Kepler (AZ) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +593 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +588 · NoVig +590
- Tim Tawa (AZ) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +770 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +770 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +614
- Cole Carrigg (COL) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +794 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +794 · NoVig +733
- Willi Castro (COL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +725 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +725 · NoVig +641
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 Total Player Runs (+150).
- JediModi on Tails likes Jake McCarthy Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+1150). Bet now → BetRivers
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Jake McCarthy Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+1080). Bet now → DraftKings
- JmetalK on Tails likes Colorado Rockies Moneyline (+180). Bet now
More from these experts on Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks. BGrebbs, JediModi, JmetalK post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins · Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals · Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox · Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers · Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves · Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals · [Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins](/articles/expert-picks/pittsburgh-pirates-vs-miami-marlins-home-run-pick. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
