A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres.
On the board for Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres: Jake Bauers, Manny Machado, Jackson Chourio, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ty France, Austin Hays are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | +500 | Bet365 | 16.7% | 33 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +510 | ProphetX | 16.4% | 34 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | +512 | Underdog 🎁 | 16.3% | 33 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 35 |
| Ty France (SD) | +603 | Underdog 🎁 | 14.2% | 31 |
| Austin Hays (CHW) | +716 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.3% | 16 |
| Andrew Vaughn (MIL) | +753 | Underdog 🎁 | 11.7% | 26 |
| Garrett Mitchell (MIL) | +770 | Polymarket 🎁 | 11.5% | 32 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Bet $5+, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly.
Which of these prices is actually +EV?OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 11, 2026 · 03:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Petco Park: park index 98.7 · wind 3 mph.
- Manny Machado (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 55% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +510 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +471
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 43% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +456
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 49% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +485 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +456
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 55% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +545
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +750 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +676 · NoVig +700
- Brice Turang (MIL) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 43% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +794 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +794 · NoVig +770
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 54% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +784 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · ProphetX +784 · NoVig +770
- William Contreras (MIL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +750 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +590
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- CharlieChip on Tails likes these plays:
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+130). Bet now → FanDuel
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-120). Bet now
- FullProofSportsBetting on Tails likes Under 8.5 Total Runs (-174). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails likes Logan Henderson Under 16.5 Total Pitching Outs (-106). Bet now
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-112). Bet now
- Ziny Bets on Tails likes Casey Mize Under 16.5 Total Pitching Outs (-117). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails likes Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+480). Bet now → FanDuel
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes Manny Machado Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+529). Bet now → Kalshi
More from these experts on Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres. CharlieChip, FOTP, FullProofSportsBetting, JediModi, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, Rebel Mickie, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins · Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals · Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox · Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves · Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals · [Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins](/articles/expert-picks/pittsburgh-pirates-vs-miami-marlins-home-ru. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
