The cheapest ticket to a big payout on any slate is a home run prop. Below are the bats we like in New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, with the best price on each.
On the board for New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves: Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Luis Robert Jr., Francisco Lindor, Michael Harris, Ronald Acuña Jr. are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II (ATL) | +355 | Pick6 | 22.0% | 1 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +402 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 19.9% | 36 |
| Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) | +428 | Pick6 | 18.9% | 1 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +475 | Unibet | 17.4% | 36 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 32 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | +510 | ProphetX | 16.4% | 36 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 34 |
| Jorge Polanco (NYM) | +575 | Circa | 14.8% | 16 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 11, 2026 · 03:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Truist Park: park index 112.6 · wind 6 mph.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — 89° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 31% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +400 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +397 · NoVig +400
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · 89° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 46% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +510 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +506
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — 89° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 31% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +490 · NoVig +471
- Bo Bichette (NYM) — 17% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · 89° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 63% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +733 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +725 · NoVig +733
- Austin Riley (ATL) — 15% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · 89° air. (model confidence B)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +608 · NoVig +567
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — 30% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · 89° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 63% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +456 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +446 · NoVig +441
- Carson Benge (NYM) — 89° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 75% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +882 · NoVig +900
- Francisco Alvarez (NYM) — 13% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · 89° air. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +488
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- @BettingPix on Tails likes New York Mets Over 3.5 Team Runs (-145). Bet now
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Marcus Semien Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+800). Bet now → BetRivers
- Conormacpicks on Tails (#8 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Bo Bichette Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+190). Bet now
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-140). Bet now
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves. @BettingPix, Conormacpicks, Rebel Mickie, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins · Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals · Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox · Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres · Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals · [Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins](/articles/expert-picks/pittsburgh-pirates-vs-miami-mar. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
