Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox Home Run Picks Today (8/13)
A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox.
On the board for Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox: Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday, Sal Stewart are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
This is the full home run board for the game — the information, not a staff pick. We are not choosing your bet; the expert picks below are real plays you can tail, and our job is to get you the best number on whatever you back. "To hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market; take the best available price on the OddsShopper home run odds screen, since the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another — real money on a play you already like.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 34 |
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 34 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 33 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | +510 | ProphetX | 16.4% | 35 |
| JJ Bleday (CIN) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 34 |
| Sal Stewart (CIN) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Eugenio Suárez (CIN) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 33 |
| Randal Grichuk (CHW) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 32 |
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Which of these prices is actually +EV? OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 13, 2026 · 10:30 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Rate Field: park index 102.9 · wind 11 mph.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +406 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +397 · NoVig +376
- Sal Stewart (CIN) — wind 11 mph straight into his power side · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 38% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +456
- Eugenio Suárez (CIN) — wind 11 mph straight into his power side. (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +461 · NoVig +456
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +510 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +471
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +441 · NoVig +441
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — baseline power edge. (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +490 · NoVig +471
- Tyler Stephenson (CIN) — wind 11 mph straight into his power side. (model confidence A)
- books: best +669 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +669
- Héctor Rodríguez (CIN) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +650 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +578 · NoVig +590
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Mike Thurston on Tails likes Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+115). Bet now → DraftKings
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Chicago White Sox Moneyline (-128).
- MVPRO on Tails likes 2-leg parlay on this game.
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails (#8 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Michael Toglia Over 0.5 Total Stolen Bases (+2100). Bet now → DraftKings
- Gubabets on Tails likes Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+270). Bet now
- EMac on Tails likes Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+337). Bet now
- MisterMarkot on Tails likes Luis Castillo Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts (-105).
- JediModi on Tails (#5 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+265). Bet now → Fanatics
More from these experts on Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox. JediModi, Mike Thurston, MisterMarkot post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals · Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins · Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees · Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox today? Munetaka Murakami at +406 (Polymarket 🎁) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
New to Polymarket? Code OS4 gets you a $20 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
