Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins Home Run Picks Today (8/13)
A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins.
On the board for Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins: Brandon Lowe, Griffin Conine, Esmerlyn Valdez, Owen Caissie, Spencer Horwitz, Bryan Reynolds are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
This is the full home run board for the game — the information, not a staff pick. We are not choosing your bet; the expert picks below are real plays you can tail, and our job is to get you the best number on whatever you back. "To hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market; take the best available price on the OddsShopper home run odds screen, since the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another — real money on a play you already like.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe (PIT) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 35 |
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) | +550 | Bet99ON | 15.4% | 33 |
| Owen Caissie (MIA) | +700 | Bet365 | 12.5% | 32 |
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | +700 | Bet365 | 12.5% | 34 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | +725 | BetMGM 🎁 | 12.1% | 34 |
| Jacob Gonzalez (PIT) | +880 | Underdog 🎁 | 10.2% | 31 |
| Jakob Marsee (MIA) | +953 | NoVig | 9.5% | 32 |
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Which of these prices is actually +EV? OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 13, 2026 · 10:30 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at loanDepot park: park index 88.0 · wind 8 mph.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — 90° air · punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 25% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +397 · NoVig +426
- Griffin Conine (MIA) — 90° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +506
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — wind 8 mph straight into his power side · 90° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +525
- Owen Caissie (MIA) — 90° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +700 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +641
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — 90° air · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +733 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +733
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — 90° air. (model confidence A)
- books: best +775 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +676 · NoVig +700
- Jacob Gonzalez (PIT) — 90° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +850 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +804 · NoVig +733
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — wind 8 mph straight into his power side · 90° air · punishes sliders, and that is 35% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +1100 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +1029 · NoVig +1076
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- JediModi on Tails (#5 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+525). Bet now → BetRivers
- ShanderBets on Tails (#4 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Janson Junk Under 5.5 Total Hits Allowed (-130). Bet now
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#3 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Miami Marlins Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-125).
- TheMick23 on Tails likes Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-121). Bet now → Fanatics
More from these experts on Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins. JediModi, TheMick23 post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals · Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox · Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees · Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins today? Brandon Lowe at +465 (Polymarket 🎁) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
New to Polymarket? Code OS4 gets you a $20 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
