MLB Best Bets Today: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (6/18)
Coming off a "double dong day" from Kyle Stowers and a Paul Goldschmidt blast to cap it, Lindy is right back at the full MLB board for Thursday, June 18. Nine games, eighteen starting pitchers, and one play he likes enough to call his heaviest of the card. Here is where he is putting his money, and the read behind each one.
In Summary (TL;DR)
Eric "Lindy" Lindquist walks the entire MLB slate every day for OddsShopper, and his Thursday (June 18) card is a tight one anchored by a single conviction play. His heaviest bet is the Oakland Athletics on the moneyline at +130 against the Angels, a number he thinks is backwards given how badly the Angels struggle against left-handed pitching, the A's should not be the underdog here. From there it is two home run swings in the Phillies game (Alec Bohm at +610 and JT Realmuto at +650, both played as separate tickets), plus a small quarter-unit play on the Toronto Blue Jays moneyline at Fenway. He is leaning toward but has not fired Baltimore's moneyline, a Randal Grichuk homer at +325, and the Giants' moneyline. Read each play as Lindy's bet at the price he got, never a lock, and shop the live number yourself before first pitch. You can watch the full show on YouTube to hear every read in his own words.
Watch the Video
Lindy walks all nine Thursday MLB games one by one in this rapid-fire edition of his Leans, Likes & Locks show, with the price and the reasoning behind every play. Watch on YouTube.
The Method: Bet the Price, Not the Team
Lindy's whole approach starts with the number on the board, not the name on the jersey. A few principles run through every play below:
- The Price Has To Beat The True Odds. Lindy bets when a book has hung a number longer than the real chance of the outcome, and he passes on plenty of games he finds interesting because the price simply is not in his favor. He said it plainly on the strikeout props he liked but skipped: positive expected value of five or ten cents is not enough to fire overnight. Our how to find +EV bets guide walks through the same math on any market.
- Pitcher Skill Drives The Read, Not The Win-Loss Record. Lindy leans on skill-independent run average (SIERA) rather than surface ERA, and he flagged Thursday as a uniquely tough slate: every one of the eighteen starters sits between roughly 3.20 and 4.65 SIERA, so there are no easy soft spots. He hunts the few pitchers near the back of that range and the lineups built to punish them.
- Home Run Props Are A Long Game, Sized Small. Any single homer bet loses more often than it wins, so Lindy keeps each one tiny and lets a season-long sample decide whether the prices were right. A two-day hot or cold run does not move him off the process.
The one rule under all of it: he only bets when the posted price is longer than the real chance of the outcome. Everything here is a different way of finding that gap.
- Batting Order And Matchup Are The Edge. His home run reads hinge on projected lineup spots and platoon splits, a left or right bat facing a pitcher who bleeds power to that side, in a park and wind that help the ball carry. When the lineup is not locked, he waits rather than guess at a batting spot.
- The Tools Price The Board. Lindy builds all of this on OddsShopper Pro. The odds screen scans every book for the best available number, the live liquidity tool shows where sharp money is moving, and the in-game EV tool surfaces value once first pitch is thrown. That is how one analyst prices a full slate this fast.
Lindy's MLB Best Bets for Thursday, June 18
These are the plays Lindy actually fired, at the prices he posted on the show. Treat them as his reads at those numbers, and confirm the live line before you bet, because moneylines, home run prices, and lineups all move right up to first pitch.
| Play | Bet | Posted price | Why Lindy fired it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | Moneyline (his heaviest play) | +130 | Angels are a bottom-tier lineup against left-handed pitching; the A's hit righties well |
| Alec Bohm | Home run | +610 | Right-handed bat vs. a fly-ball lefty (Sean Manaea) in 89-degree heat, wind out to right |
| JT Realmuto | Home run | +650 | Same nuclear park-and-weather spot; played as its own ticket, not parlayed |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Moneyline (small, quarter unit) | — | Righty bats more targetable vs. Sonny Gray; wind ripping out at Fenway |
Oakland Athletics Moneyline, +130 (His Heaviest Play)
This is the bet Lindy played biggest, and he admitted up front it might make you uncomfortable, especially since the A's got bludgeoned at home the day before. The Angels send out a right-hander in José Soriano, whose 8-4 record and 2.79 run average look great until you notice his SIERA sits 11th of the 18 starters on the slate, near the back of the pack. On the other side, the A's lefty Gage Jump has pitched well in his recent starts and carries a stronger skill profile than his line suggests.
The real engine of the play is the matchup. Against left-handed pitching this season, the Angels have been one of the worst lineups in baseball, with a strikeout rate around 25%, fifth-highest in the league, and a 96 wRC+ that says below-average production. The A's flip that script against right-handers, sitting at a 105 wRC+ with a .251 average and a .162 ISO that Lindy expects to climb as they play more home games. His read: a lineup that cannot hit lefties should not have its opponent installed as a -130 road favorite, which makes the home A's at +130 the value, so he is taking the Athletics moneyline and treating it as his anchor.
Alec Bohm Home Run, +610, and JT Realmuto Home Run, +650
Lindy called the Phillies game a "nuclear" environment, and the card backs it up: 89 degrees with the wind blowing out to right field, against a lefty in Sean Manaea who lives in the air. Manaea carries a fly-ball-heavy profile (a 185 expected ISO to right-handed bats by Lindy's note), the kind of pitcher who gives up loud contact when the ball is carrying. Lindy zeroed in on the right-handed Phillies bats and pulled two: Alec Bohm at +610 and JT Realmuto at +650.
He was specific that he is playing these two individually, not stapling them into a parlay. The longshot prices are the point. Each one is a small, standalone swing at a number he thinks is too long for a fly-ball lefty in a launching pad, and he is happy to lose most of them while waiting for the sample to pay off.
Why two tickets, not a parlay: stapling +610 and +650 together turns two priced edges into one near-impossible payout. Kept separate, each homer stands on its own number, which is the only thing Lindy is betting.
Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline, Small Play
At Fenway, Lindy sees a real park factor brewing: wind ripping out toward the Green Monster around 19 mph at 75 degrees, with two capable starters in Trey Yesavage and Sonny Gray keeping the implied totals north of four runs apiece. He leaned Toronto because he finds the right-handed Blue Jays bats a touch more targetable against Sonny Gray than the Boston hitters are against Yesavage, whom he rates highly. This is a quarter-unit play "for now," with the intention of adding homer swings on both sides once lineups firm up, so size it accordingly.
The Leans He Has Not Fired Yet
Lindy's show is "Leans, Likes & Locks" for a reason: plenty of plays are still on the watch list, not the bet slip. Treat these as spots he is monitoring, not official fires.
- Baltimore Orioles Moneyline And Lefty Power. Lindy called this the reluctant lead of the Orioles-Mariners game. Mariners righty Brian Woo has started leaking more power to left-handed bats, which points him toward Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson, in a game that also features the worst SIERA of any starter on the slate. He is leaning Baltimore and its lefties without hammering it.
- Randal Grichuk To Homer, +325. This was his self-described favorite player of the day, a wrecking ball against left-handed pitching projected to bat second, with Lindy's own break-even closer to +310. He was clear it stayed "in the lean category" and he did not rapid-fire it, mostly because he wants better than +325 before committing.
- San Francisco Giants Moneyline. A lean only. Lindy wants to see the Giants' lineup first, given some bats could move around, and he noted Atlanta is thinning out with injuries.
- Jac Caglianone To Homer. He likes Caglianone's reverse-split profile batting third against lefty Matthew Liberatore in a park he expects to play up for power, but he is waiting on the lineup order before sizing it.
He is passing entirely on a couple of spots: the Brewers game built around Shane Drohan, where he has no interest in either side, and the Joe Ryan and Jack Leiter strikeout overs at 5.5, which graded slightly positive but far too thin to back overnight. As Lindy put it, if Leiter's over drifted to +110 you could jam it, but at the current juice it is a pass.
A Worked Example: Why +130 on the Athletics Is a Bet
The A's moneyline is a clean way to see how "price versus probability" works on a side, not just a prop. A +130 underdog pays $130 for every $100 you risk, which implies a break-even win probability of 100 / (100 + 130), or about 43.5%. So the book is treating Oakland as roughly a 43-44% chance to win, a clear underdog.
Lindy's case is that the number is on the wrong team. When a lineup that strikes out 25% of the time against lefties (fifth-worst in baseball) and posts a 96 wRC+ has to face a left-hander, while the home underdog hits righties at a 105 wRC+ clip, his read pushes the A's true win probability above that 43.5% line. Any time his estimate clears the break-even number, the bet carries positive expected value, and the bigger the gap, the bigger he sizes it. That is why this is his heaviest play rather than a sprinkle.
The edge in one line: the book prices the Athletics as a 43.5% underdog at +130; Lindy has them higher than that because the Angels are one of the league's worst lineups against the left-hander they are facing. That gap is the bet.
Betting Lindy's Card the Smart Way
Tailing a sharp only works if you bet like one. A few rules apply to every play above.
Shop for the number first. Lindy's edge is often the price itself. A homer prop at +610 on one book might be +560 on another, and an Athletics moneyline at +130 could be +140 somewhere else. Line them up on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen and take the best number on the board.
After you have the best price, three habits keep the rest of the card honest:
- Size longshots like longshots. A small ticket on a +650 homer is not the same wager as a moneyline. These miss far more often than they hit, and Lindy keeps them tiny on purpose. Stake to your bankroll.
- Check the lineup before first pitch. Home run props live and die on the batting order and pinch-hit risk, which is exactly why Lindy is waiting on Grichuk and Caglianone. A number that looked great the night before can evaporate when the card posts.
- Judge it across a season. Even a well-priced card loses plenty of nights. What grades a bet is the price you locked in, and that takes a full season's sample to show up.
Bet with the tools Lindy uses. New to OddsShopper? It scans every major sportsbook and flags the bets priced in your favor, the exact work Lindy does by hand above, and it is the same OddsShopper Pro suite he prices every card on. Try it free for 7 days, then code LINDY25 takes 25% off your first week or month.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Lindy? Eric "Lindy" Lindquist is OddsShopper's MLB analyst. His daily show, Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks, walks the full board game by game with the plays he is making and the price and reasoning behind each one. He also hosts a longer MLB research show and appears on MLB Live Before Lock.
What are Lindy's best bets for today (6/18)? His fired plays were the Oakland Athletics moneyline at +130 (his heaviest play), Alec Bohm to homer at +610, JT Realmuto to homer at +650, and a small play on the Toronto Blue Jays moneyline. Prices and lineups move, so confirm the live number before you bet.
Why is the Athletics moneyline his biggest play? Because the matchup and the price disagree. Anaheim is one of the worst lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching and draws a lefty here, yet the market still made the Angels road favorites. Lindy thinks the team that hits righties well should not be the +130 home underdog, so he took that value on the Athletics.
Should I just tail every pick? Only at a price that beats the true odds. Lindy's whole edge is the number he gets and disciplined sizing, so if you cannot find a similar price, the value is gone. New to the markets? Our MLB betting terms guide covers the basics, and our closing line value explainer shows how to tell when you were early to an edge.
Where can I follow Lindy's full daily card? Lindy posts his complete card on Tails, where you can follow his plays every day. See his Tails page for the full slate, and watch the Thursday show on YouTube.
The Bottom Line
Thursday is a conviction card. Lindy's heaviest play is the Athletics moneyline at +130, a home underdog he thinks is mispriced because the Angels cannot hit lefties, backed by two longshot Phillies homers (Bohm +610, Realmuto +650) in a hitter's paradise and a small Blue Jays moneyline at a windy Fenway. The leans on Baltimore, Grichuk, and the Giants are spots he is still watching, not bets he has placed. Shop your number, keep the longshots small, watch the lineups, and grade the card across a full season's sample.
Follow Lindy's full MLB card, every day. Get his complete slate of plays on his Tails page. And to bet with the same tools he uses, start a free OddsShopper Pro trial and take 25% off your first week or month with LINDY25.
Bet only where it is legal and available, and only with money you can afford to risk. 21+ where legal; if betting stops being fun, step away.
