MLB Best Bets Today: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (6/26)
Eric "Lindy" Lindquist came back to the OddsShopper channel for the Friday, June 26 edition of MLB Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks carrying a stacked card and a chip on his shoulder. Thursday was "not a profitable betting day" — the video itself ended up green, but his own card came up short, capping a choppy week he summed up as "Sunday was a smash, Tuesday was a smash, Wednesday was awful, Thursday down." His plan to rebound on a 15-game Major League Baseball slate: lean on strikeout props, where he thinks the books sharpen the least, and pick three specific home run prices he says the market got wrong.
Below is the full recap of what Lindy fired, the leans he flagged but did not bet, and the games he's flat-out avoiding — every read in his own words, with the concrete prices he posted.
In Summary
- Lindy came in promising a heavy card by his own count — five strikeout plays and three home run swings — on a 15-game MLB slate.
- The strikeout props are the spine: Keider Montero under 3.5, Paul Skenes over 8.5 (quarter unit), Trevor Rogers under 4.5 at +130, Jacob Misiorowski over 8.5 at +115 (his favorite prop), and Dustin May under 8.5 (his favorite play of the day).
- His three home run swings are all prices he calls outliers: Cory Seager at +475, Ben Rice at +460, and Royce Lewis at +625 — the last one a Bet365 number he says is "a major pricing outlier."
- Lindy prices every bet himself and clicks only when his fair number beats the market. Build and shop the same card on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (6/26)
Lindy walks through every game on the board, the reasoning, and his live prices in the show below. The plays and reads in this article come straight from it.
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How Lindy Prices An MLB Card
Before the picks, the part that matters most: Lindy doesn't bet a strikeout total because he likes the pitcher — he bets it because his own fair number sits on the other side of the posted line. When he says Misiorowski over 8.5 at +115 is "a broken price" or that he's "way north of that number," that gap between his projection and the market is the whole bet. It's also why a losing Thursday doesn't shake him: the process is pricing, not picking winners.
He's especially direct about why you won't see him chasing moneylines the morning of a slate. "Prediction markets have really hammered moneylines early," he said — by first pitch those numbers are efficient, so his edge lives in props that move less. If you're new to that logic, start with our closing line value explainer and how to find +EV bets; the MLB betting terms glossary covers the prop language he uses throughout.
The tools he names on the show are the ones in OddsShopper Pro: the odds screen to find the best line on every market, live liquidity to tail sharp action, and an in-game tool to keep pricing after first pitch. He credits them for keeping him "afloat" through a dreary stretch. He also points listeners to his MLB Research Show the next day for more plays as lineups firm up.
Lindy's MLB Best Bets Today (The Fired Plays)
| Bet | Game | Lindy's number | Size |
|---|
| Keider Montero Strikeouts, Under 3.5 | Astros at Tigers | Under 3.5 | Play |
| Paul Skenes Strikeouts, Over 8.5 | Reds at Pirates | Over 8.5 | Quarter unit |
| Trevor Rogers Strikeouts, Under 4.5 | Nationals at Orioles | +130 | Play |
| Jacob Misiorowski Strikeouts, Over 8.5 | Cubs at Brewers | +115 | Half unit (favorite prop) |
| Dustin May Strikeouts, Under 8.5 | vs the Marlins | Under 8.5 | Favorite play of the day |
| Cory Seager To Homer | Rangers at Blue Jays | +475 | Play |
| Ben Rice To Homer | Yankees at Red Sox | +460 | Play |
| Royce Lewis To Homer | Rockies at Twins | +625 | Play (pricing outlier) |
Keider Montero Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Lindy opens the card on the Astros-Tigers game with the Detroit starter's strikeout under at 3.5. He admits it's a low number, but his case is the lineup, not the arm: he doesn't think this configuration of the Houston order strikes out much. He flags Taylor Trammell — coming off two homers in his last four days — as the one bat that could add some swing-and-miss if he's in there, but otherwise calls the matchup "pretty stringent" for Montero's whiff total. Under 3.5.
Paul Skenes Over 8.5 Strikeouts (Quarter Unit)
This one runs against Lindy's own history — he says he's "routinely been on unders for Paul Skenes." Not here. He doesn't agree with the 8.5 against the Reds, who he notes carry just about the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in baseball at 24.7% (only the Angels are higher, by a tenth of a point), paired with a weak 89 wRC+ against him. The hedge: Cincinnati's lineup has had "no stability whatsoever" for over a month, and a couple of contact-oriented righties moving up could cap the number, so he sized it at a quarter unit. He still thinks "Skenes is worth the small investment" on the over.
Trevor Rogers Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130)
On the Nationals-Orioles game, Lindy is on the Baltimore lefty's strikeout under at 4.5, getting plus money at +130. The reason is the opponent: he calls this Washington lineup the best in baseball against left-handed pitching, which is exactly the profile that drags a whiff total down. Getting +130 on the under of a number he already projects lower is the value.
Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+115) — His Favorite Prop
"My favorite prop of the day. No doubt, no questions asked." Lindy loves the Brewers right-hander's strikeout over at 8.5 against the Cubs and calls +115 "a broken price." His read is the matchup: Misiorowski's splits are "insane," and a Chicago lineup topped by Pete Crow-Armstrong gives him the swing-and-miss to clear the number. He's "way north" of 8.5 on his own projection and deployed a half unit.
Dustin May Under 8.5 Strikeouts — His Favorite Play Of The Day
The headliner. Lindy is on the under of May's strikeouts at 8.5 and calls it his favorite play of the entire card. The environment does the work: it's a rainy forecast in a strong pitcher's ballpark, and while the Marlins carry some lefty power, Lindy thinks they're a strikeout-prone group that lets a locked-in May keep cruising. "I don't understand this line at all," he said of the 8.5. Under.
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Cory Seager To Homer (+475)
Kicking off the home run card, Lindy says the Rangers shortstop at +475 is "a number that cannot be neglected." It's a lefty-on-lefty spot against Patrick Corbin, but a specific one: Corbin is slider-heavy, and against sliders from southpaws this season Seager carries a 277 expected ISO and a 300 actual ISO. It's a small batted-ball sample, but Lindy's point is that one swing is all the prop needs at that price, with right-handed protection around him in the order.
Ben Rice To Homer (+460)
Lindy calls the Yankees lefty at +460 "one of the sharper plays" on the board. The matchup is rookie left-hander Payton Tolle in Fenway, who Lindy notes gives up a lot of pull-air contact and doesn't have the mix to neutralize lefties the way the raw stuff suggests. He pegs the break-even inside +400, "so anything with a four in front of it is technically playable," and +460 clears the +420 he wanted. Expecting Rice in the two-hole behind Goldschmidt, he "feels pretty good about it."
Royce Lewis To Homer (+625)
The pricing outlier Lindy teased all show. He says Bet365 dropped the Twins infielder at +625 against Tomoyuki Sugano — a starter who "doesn't really have any strikeout stuff" — in decent hitting weather, and that anything north of +500 is playable. Lewis has been retooled and confident since a Triple-A stint where he hit 10 homers in 60 at-bats, and Lindy "almost played this for half a unit" before settling in. His verdict on the +625: "Click it. Ticket it."
A Worked Example: Why +115 On Misiorowski Is The Value
The math is what turns Lindy's favorite prop into a bet instead of a hunch. A +115 price means the over only has to cash about 46.5% of the time to break even (100 ÷ 215). Lindy isn't pricing Misiorowski's strikeout over near a coin flip — he says he's "way north" of 8.5, meaning his own projection has the over hitting well more than half the time. That gap between roughly 50-plus percent and the 46.5% break-even is the edge, and it's why he sized it up to a half unit. Same logic runs the whole card: he isn't betting the player, he's betting the distance between his number and the book's.
He flagged one more strikeout over in the same family — Roki Sasaki against a Padres lineup his sims project for a 23.4% strikeout rate, a number he said he "has to click." Same process, same reason: the projected whiff rate sits above where the market priced the prop.
Leans Lindy Is Watching (Not Yet Fired)
These cleared his eye test but not his price test — he wants better numbers before clicking:
- Miguel Vargas Home Run. He likes the White Sox infielder against a reverse-split-prone righty giving up real power, but hasn't bet it yet and wants a better number first.
- Seattle Mariners Moneyline. With a fully healthy lineup back — Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena all in — Lindy says if you forced him onto a moneyline, this is the one. He's not playing it for now, mostly because it's Luis Castillo and a better park for lefty power on the other side.
- Diamondbacks-Rays Over 8.5. He leans over but won't fire it: it's at Tropicana Field, and he refuses to make thin total plays in a dome with no weather volatility, where "one side is going to be correct" on a coin-flip number.
- Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts. He likes the outdoor environment at Citi Field, but with five strikeout plays already on the board he calls this spot "too thin" to add.
- Athletics-Angels Over 8.5. He'll lean to the over out of respect for both arms but is staying away — ground-ball tendencies and a park that hasn't played up for power keep him off it.
Games Lindy Is Staying Away From
He was blunt about the Braves-Giants nightcap: "I hate the ballpark," especially in the evening, so he won't post a number there. The broader theme on the bottom of the slate is the same discipline he preaches all card long — if prediction markets have already sharpened the moneyline and the prop number doesn't give him an edge, he passes rather than forces a play.
Tail Lindy's Card With OddsShopper Pro
Every price Lindy quoted today came from shopping the full market, not one book. The easiest way to copy his process is to use the same tools he does: line-shop every market on the odds screen, watch live liquidity to tail sharp action, and keep pricing in-game once first pitch hits.
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FAQ
What are Lindy's MLB best bets today (June 26)?
A strikeout-heavy card: Keider Montero under 3.5, Paul Skenes over 8.5 (quarter unit), Trevor Rogers under 4.5 at +130, Jacob Misiorowski over 8.5 at +115 (his favorite prop), and Dustin May under 8.5 (his favorite play). His three home run swings are Cory Seager at +475, Ben Rice at +460, and Royce Lewis at +625.
What is Lindy's favorite play today?
Dustin May's strikeout under at 8.5 — a rainy forecast in a strong pitcher's park against a strikeout-prone lineup. His favorite prop is Jacob Misiorowski over 8.5 strikeouts at +115, which he called "a broken price."
Why is Lindy so heavy on strikeout props?
He thinks prediction markets sharpen moneylines early, so by first pitch those are efficient — his edge lives in props that move less, where his own projection can beat the posted line. Learn the logic in our how to find +EV bets guide.
What does the BABYLINDY50 code do?
It takes 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro after the free 7-day trial. Redeem it here.
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