WNBA Best Bets Today: Monday, August 10 Picks And A +8.3% Tuesday Edge
The WNBA best bets today live on a short, late card with a condition attached. Monday, August 10 is a two-game night that does not start until 8:00 p.m. ET, when the Toronto Tempo visit the Atlanta Dream, and it closes in Seattle at 10:00, where the Storm host a badly shorthanded Chicago Sky. When we stripped the vig from the board this afternoon, twelve numbers cleared our fair price, and two things shape this whole edition: tonight's best number, and its third-best, belong to Flau'jae Johnson, who limped out of Saturday's game with a foot injury and has not been confirmed for tonight, and only seven of the twelve rows tip tonight at all. The board has already priced Tuesday's three games, and the widest edge on the entire capture belongs to tomorrow. I promise we will get to that number, but tonight's windows close first, so tonight's card comes first.
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The Quick Answer
The best WNBA bet today is Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 assists at +115 on Hard Rock Bet, against a de-vigged fair price of +103, a +5.9% edge in the Sky-Storm game at 10:00 p.m. ET, with one condition: Johnson left Saturday's game with a foot injury and must be confirmed active before you bet anything with her name on it. If she sits, tonight's lead becomes Dominique Malonga Under 2.5 assists at -170 on Bet365 (+5.3%). Behind those sit Johnson's own Under 4.5 rebounds at +100 on Hard Rock Bet (+5.0%, same condition) and Aneesah Morrow Under 7.5 rebounds at -135 on DraftKings (+3.9%). The board has also already priced Tuesday, where Chelsea Gray Over 2.5 rebounds at +135 sits as the widest edge of the whole capture at +8.3%. The full twelve-row board, both nights graded in tip order, is below.
- Tonight's Lead Is A Rookie's Passing Line: Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 Assists, +115 (Hard Rock Bet), Fair +103, +5.9%, Live Only If She Plays. The fair price is barely plus money, so this is close to a coin flip being sold at +115. The bet is the twelve cents of price, not a scouting report, and it does not exist until her name clears the actives.
- Four Of Tonight's Seven Rows Print +3.9% Or Better; The Other Three Do Not. The thin tail is shop-the-exact-price territory.
- Two Of Tonight's Rows Belong To The Same Player. Johnson's assists and rebounds Unders are one opinion in two wrappers, and they get sized like one.
- Eleven Of The Twelve Rows Are Unders, And The Only Over Is Also The Widest Edge, and it does not tip until Tuesday night. Patience is a position on this board.
- Four Books Price This Card, But Bet365 Carries Six Of The Twelve Rows. If one book's numbers are off today, this card leans on that book; confirm every price live.
Odds captured 2026-08-10 at 20:43 UTC, a little over three hours before the first tip. Every fair price below is our own de-vigged number from the OddsShopper live odds screen, which strips the vig from both sides of a market so you can see what a bet is actually worth. We price the game lines on this board every day too; on this capture none of them cleared fair, so every edge that survived is a prop, and the game lines are today's passes. Small edges, small limits, and a schedule that does some of the discipline for you.
The Lead: Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 Assists, If She Plays
The 10:00 p.m. ET game in Seattle holds tonight's best number, and it comes with tonight's biggest asterisk. Johnson limped out of Saturday's game against Portland with a foot injury and did not return, and as of this afternoon Seattle had said only that it hoped to have her back for this game. The books kept both of her lines on the board all afternoon, which tells you the market expects her to play; expectation is not a lineup card. Her two rows are bets on a confirmed-active Johnson and nothing else.
Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 assists, +115 (Hard Rock Bet), fair +103, +5.9%. Read the shape before the name. Strip the vig from both sides and the fair price on this Under is +103, which makes it very nearly a coin flip; Hard Rock Bet is paying +115 for a side worth +103, and those twelve cents are the entire case. The role note is supporting color, not the thesis: Johnson is a rookie guard the market prices as a scorer first, and a 2.5 assist bar on a score-first guard is the kind of line books post confidently and price loosely. I am not going to pretend that is a projection edge. The projection says this side loses about half the time; the price pays you as if it loses more. That gap is the bet, it wants a small stake, and it waits for her name on the actives. Seattle is already down Ezi Magbegor tonight, which shuffles frontcourt roles, so the pregame lineup confirmation matters more than usual.
Johnson has a second row on this card, and it triggers this series' sizing rule. We will come back to Seattle for it, after the number that teaches you how to read the first one.
Worked Example: What +115 Buys On A +103 Number
Walk the Johnson row with me, because a plus-money fair price confuses people in both directions: some treat it as a free coin flip, others skip it because the edge is not a favorite. Value is price against true probability, and this row is a clean demonstration.
What the market believes. Stripping the vig from both sides of the assists market leaves a fair price of +103 on the Under, a 49.3% implied probability. In other words, this side is expected to lose slightly more often than it wins, 50.7 to 49.3.
What the price demands. At +115 you risk $100 to win $115, an implied break-even of 46.5%. The market says this side wins 49.3% of the time; the price only needs 46.5%.
What that pays. Run 49.3% through a +115 payout and the Under returns about six cents of expected value per dollar risked: the +5.9% that leads tonight's card. That is real +EV, and it still loses roughly half the time. Hold onto that shape, a near-coin-flip sold at plus money, because the widest number on this board is the same idea stretched further, and it is not even tonight's bet.
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The 8:00 Window: Tempo At Dream Opens The Night
Because the lead does not tip until 10:00, the actual first decision of your Monday is in Atlanta, and both of its rows belong to Toronto players whose situations just changed.
Aneesah Morrow Under 7.5 rebounds, -135 (DraftKings), fair -148, +3.9%. The strongest favorite price of the early window. Morrow is days into her Toronto tenure after the trade from Connecticut, and she came off the bench in her Tempo debut, so a 7.5 rebound bar reads like a line built off a workload her new role has not yet re-earned. That is the supporting clause. The case is that our de-vig makes this Under a -148 favorite and DraftKings is still selling it at -135, thirteen cents of price on a side the market itself calls likely. Role uncertainty cuts both ways, so treat the number, not the narrative, as the pick.
Maria Conde Under 1.5 three-pointers, -115 (Bet365), fair -121, +2.4%. The thinnest row on the whole card, listed for completeness and discipline, not conviction. Conde is a Tempo expansion pick who missed all of last season with an Achilles injury, and her shooting line is priced accordingly; the gap here is six cents on a modest favorite. Shop-only: it is a bet at exactly -115 or better and nothing at a worse number.
Back To Seattle: The Rest Of The 10:00 Window
The nightcap carries five of tonight's seven rows, which makes the Sky-Storm actives sheet the most important document of your evening. Chicago arrives without Skylar Diggins, DiJonai Carrington and Rickea Jackson, and with Kamilla Cardoso questionable; Seattle is missing Magbegor, and Johnson's foot is the first thing to check when the report drops. That much roster churn is exactly when de-vigged prices earn their keep, because the books reprice roles faster than narratives do.
Dominique Malonga Under 2.5 assists, -170 (Bet365), fair -197, +5.3%. The heaviest lay on the card, and the second-best edge of the night. A 2.5 assist bar on a young center is a line about role, and Malonga's role runs through the paint, even more so with Magbegor out tonight. But the case is the twenty-seven cents: our fair price says this Under should cost -197 and Bet365 is selling it at -170. A favorite this heavy buys less upside per dollar, so the bankroll math keeps it at the same standard small ticket as everything else on the card; the discount, not the size, is the point.
Flau'jae Johnson Under 4.5 rebounds, +100 (Hard Rock Bet), fair -111, +5.0%. Here is the callback, and the rule. This is a favorite side, fair -111, being sold at even money, five points of edge on its own. But it is the same player as the lead, at the same book, in the same game, under the same injury condition. Count opinions, not tickets: these two Unders are correlated exposure to Johnson's overall role and minutes, so a reduced night helps both and a full-minutes, high-involvement night puts both at risk. Pick one row or split one small stake across the pair; the assists line is the better price relative to fair, so if you only bet one, bet that one.
The window's thin tail is two guard rows, and I will keep them to their actual size. Natisha Hiedeman Under 4.5 assists, +122 (FanDuel), fair +116, +2.8% is another plus-money fair, a dog side that figures to cash a bit less than half the time even at the fair number, worth six cents at FanDuel and nothing at a worse price. Natasha Cloud Under 3.5 rebounds, -112 (FanDuel), fair -118, +2.5% is the lone Sky row, and the injury list is why it stays interesting: with Diggins out, Cloud is the veteran running what is left of Chicago's backcourt, and heavy on-ball duty is not where rebounds usually come from. That read is seasoning; the ticket only cares about the six cents between -118 and -112, at the listed price, after the actives confirm.
Tomorrow Is Already Priced: The Tuesday Board
Here is the payoff of the promise from the top. The odds screen does not stop at midnight, and on this afternoon's capture the board had already hung numbers on all three of Tuesday's games. Five of those numbers cleared fair, and one of them is the widest edge of the entire two-night capture.
Chelsea Gray Over 2.5 rebounds, +135 (Bet365), fair +117, +8.3%. The only Over among twelve rows, and the biggest number on the board. It is the Johnson shape stretched further: strip the vig and the fair price on this Over is +117, a side that is under 50% to cash even at the fair number, and Bet365 is paying +135 for it. Eighteen cents of price on a guard's rebounding line in the Mystics-Aces game, Tuesday at 10:00 p.m. ET. Now read what that fair price is quietly telling you: a market that makes three rebounds a true underdog outcome for a starting guard is a market expecting a modest night from her, and on a line hung a full day before tip, the widest gap on the capture is also the one most likely to be explained by information that has not gone public yet. Maybe Bet365 is simply slow; maybe the whole market knows something about Tuesday that we do not. That is why this row, more than any other, is an option on an edge rather than an edge in hand: confirm Gray's status and the live number Tuesday, and only bet it if both survive.
The rest of Tuesday's card, same caveat attached. Kelsey Plum Under 19.5 points, -115 (Bet365), fair -128, +5.0% is the row with the real story. Plum faces the Sparks days after the trade-deadline deal that sent her from Los Angeles to Phoenix, which is the headline; the bettable part is that she only just returned from the leg injury that had shelved her since late June, easing back on managed minutes with a team she has barely practiced with. A 19.5-point bar on a star in that spot is a big ask, fair prices the Under at -128, and Bet365 is still selling it at -115, the best pure favorite on the whole capture outside Seattle. The other three Tuesday rows are price entries, nothing more: Sabrina Ionescu Under 5.5 assists, +115 (Bet365), fair +108, +3.4%, the fourth and final plus-money fair, in the Liberty-Fever opener at 7:30 p.m. ET; Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 rebounds, -125 (Bet365), fair -133, +2.8%; and Caitlin Clark Under 9.5 assists, -135 (DraftKings), fair -144, +2.7%, which doubly earns the reprice rule because she has been managing a back issue, so Tuesday's report decides whether that line even survives to tip.
The Full Two-Night Board, Graded
Every number from today's capture that cleared fair, in tip order across both nights. Twelve rows, five games, four books, and every game on both slates contributed at least one row. Confirm each price live before you act; on a card this thin, the listed number is the entire pick.
| Game (ET) | Bet | Best takeable | Fair | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tempo @ Dream, Mon 8:00 | Aneesah Morrow Under 7.5 reb | -135 (DraftKings) | -148 | +3.9% | Play |
| Tempo @ Dream, Mon 8:00 | Maria Conde Under 1.5 threes | -115 (Bet365) | -121 | +2.4% | Shop only |
| Sky @ Storm, Mon 10:00 | Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 ast | +115 (Hard Rock Bet) | +103 | +5.9% | Lead play tonight (if active) |
| Sky @ Storm, Mon 10:00 | Dominique Malonga Under 2.5 ast | -170 (Bet365) | -197 | +5.3% | Play |
| Sky @ Storm, Mon 10:00 | Flau'jae Johnson Under 4.5 reb | +100 (Hard Rock Bet) | -111 | +5.0% | Pair w/ lead: one opinion (if active) |
| Sky @ Storm, Mon 10:00 | Natisha Hiedeman Under 4.5 ast | +122 (FanDuel) | +116 | +2.8% | Shop only |
| Sky @ Storm, Mon 10:00 | Natasha Cloud Under 3.5 reb | -112 (FanDuel) | -118 | +2.5% | Shop only |
| Liberty @ Fever, Tue 7:30 | Sabrina Ionescu Under 5.5 ast | +115 (Bet365) | +108 | +3.4% | Play (reprice Tuesday) |
| Liberty @ Fever, Tue 7:30 | Caitlin Clark Under 9.5 ast | -135 (DraftKings) | -144 | +2.7% | Shop only (check status) |
| Mystics @ Aces, Tue 10:00 | Chelsea Gray Over 2.5 reb | +135 (Bet365) | +117 | +8.3% | Lead play Tuesday (dog price; reprice) |
| Mercury @ Sparks, Tue 10:00 | Kelsey Plum Under 19.5 pts | -115 (Bet365) | -128 | +5.0% | Play (reprice Tuesday) |
| Mercury @ Sparks, Tue 10:00 | Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 reb | -125 (Bet365) | -133 | +2.8% | Shop only (reprice Tuesday) |
Fair prices are display-rounded from the underlying probabilities; every edge is computed from the unrounded numbers, which is why a row can show a slightly different figure than the printed fair implies.
The row worth staring at is Gray's, precisely because of where it sits: among the last to tip, first in edge, and the only one pointing up. Eleven rows say the props on this board are priced a touch high; one row says Bet365 is overpaying on a guard's rebounding Over by eighteen cents. That lone dissent is the widest gap on the capture, and on a next-day line the widest gap is also the first number to re-check, because stale information is the cheapest explanation for an 18-cent disagreement. Trust the sizes of the gaps over the direction of the crowd, then make the biggest gap prove it is still alive on Tuesday.
How To Bet A Two-Night Board
Twelve rows, two real windows tonight, and a Tuesday shelf that will reprice overnight. The card mostly makes your decisions for you.
- Tonight, Let +3.9% Set The Floor, And Bet Each Row Before Its Own Lock. Morrow's ticket closes at 8:00; Malonga and the Johnson rows close at 10:00. That is three positions from four qualifying rows, because the Johnson pair counts once, and both Johnson rows wait on her actives call. The three thin rows are exact-price-or-nothing, and passing all three is a fine Monday, the same discipline the July 18 board rode when props carried the whole card.
- Count Opinions, Not Tickets. The Johnson pair is one opinion at one book. Two tickets on her night is doubled exposure wearing two receipts; the July 20 board ran into the game-level version of the same trap.
- Treat Tuesday As A Reservation, Not A Bet Slip. The five Tuesday rows were priced Monday afternoon. If the number is still there after Tuesday's injury reports, the edge survived a full day of new information, which is its own small confirmation; if it moved against you, the market repriced what you knew before you bet it. Either way, confirm before you fire, especially on Gray and Clark, and hold the Tuesday rows to listed-price-or-pass, the standard set back on the July 16 board.
- Price Any Parlay Before You Place It. Correlated Unders in the same game, like the Seattle cluster tonight, make tempting legs and dishonest prices. Run any build through the parlay builder so the combined ticket gets the same fair-value test as the singles, and see how I handled exactly that construction problem in my best WNBA parlay breakdown. When my own card has plays on it, it lives with the free picks on Tails, at my page.
The honest read on August 10: a quiet two-game Monday whose best numbers cluster in one late game in Seattle and hang on one rookie's foot, wrapped inside a board that has already told you where Tuesday's value sits. Bet tonight's real plays at their listed prices, treat the Johnson pair as one position that exists only if she starts the night in uniform, and let Tuesday's reports decide whether the widest edge of the capture is still standing when its window actually opens.
FAQ
What are the best WNBA bets today, August 10? Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 assists at +115 on Hard Rock Bet, against a de-vigged fair price of +103, is tonight's widest edge at +5.9%, but only if Johnson is confirmed active after Saturday's foot injury. Behind it: Dominique Malonga Under 2.5 assists at -170 (+5.3%), which becomes the lead if Johnson sits, Johnson Under 4.5 rebounds at +100 (+5.0%, one opinion with the lead), and Aneesah Morrow Under 7.5 rebounds at -135 (+3.9%). If the listed price is gone, the edge went with it; do not chase at a worse number.
Why is the biggest edge on the board a Tuesday game? Because the odds screen prices every posted game, not just tonight's, and books hang next-day lines early. Chelsea Gray Over 2.5 rebounds at +135 against a +117 fair is the widest gap of the whole capture at +8.3%, but it was priced a full day before tip, so it comes with a mandatory recheck: confirm the line and Gray's status Tuesday before betting it. An early price is an option on an edge, not a guarantee of one.
How should I size bets on a card like this? Small everywhere. Seven of the twelve rows print +3.4% or better and earn standard small tickets; the rest are shop-only, meaning the exact listed price or nothing. Four rows have plus-money fair prices, meaning even the fair number calls them slight underdogs; take the same small stake and expect bigger swings (my July 17 parlay piece walks the same variance math for plus-money legs). On the thin rows, a couple cents of worse price cuts the edge roughly in half, and three or four cents takes it to nothing, which is why they are listed-price-or-pass.
Ready to price the full board yourself? Compare prices on every WNBA market across the whole book list, starting from the OddsShopper live odds screen. New users get a free 7-day trial of OddsShopper Pro, which flags any side that clears its fair price automatically across the full board, or take 20% off your first OS Pro payment with code WNBA20.
Odds and edges captured 2026-08-10 at 20:43 UTC and subject to movement. Betting content is intended for a 21+ audience in regulated markets where legal. Bet responsibly and never wager more than you can afford to lose.
