The WNBA best bets today come from a three-game Tuesday, August 25, and for the first time in a week the board is not thin. Our de-vig cleared twelve player props across all three games, six of them in the late game between the Washington Mystics and Phoenix Mercury at 10:00 p.m. ET, four in Sky-Sun at 7:00 p.m. ET, and two in Fire-Wings at 8:00 p.m. ET, where Dallas can clinch a playoff spot with a win. That is the thesis for the whole card: tonight rewards patience, because the widest edges are sitting in the last game of the night, and the biggest question on the board, whether Kelsey Plum plays and how much, does not get answered until an hour before it tips.
The lead is a three-point Under on a Mystics guard, and it is the widest overlay we have found in this series in days. It also has a problem I am not going to hide from you: the last time she played this opponent, she had the best shooting night of her season. I will get to that. Below it are two more rows above 5%, nine smaller ones, three game lines that all grade as passes, and one returning All-Star whose minutes are the whole bet.
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The Quick Answer
The best WNBA bet today is Sonia Citron Under 1.5 threes at +105 on Bet365, a +9.7% edge against our de-vigged fair price of -115, in the Mystics-Mercury game at 10:00 p.m. ET. Georgia Amoore Over 1.5 threes (+122, Bet365, +8.3%) and Kamilla Cardoso Under 2.5 assists (+100, Fanatics, +5.2%) are the other two rows above 5%, and no game line cleared in any of the three games. The full twelve-row board, the Kelsey Plum minutes question, and why both Fire-Wings rows are shop-only are below.
Odds captured 2026-08-25 at 13:23 UTC (9:23 a.m. ET). Every fair price in this piece is our own de-vigged number from the OddsShopper live odds screen, which strips the vig from both sides of a market so you can see what a bet is actually worth. The August 23 edition had six rows in one game; this one has twelve across three, and the sizing rules are different for that reason.
Tonight's Lead: Sonia Citron Under 1.5 Threes
The late game is Washington at Phoenix, 10:00 p.m. ET at Mortgage Matchup Center, and the widest number on the board sits on the Mystics' starting guard.
Sonia Citron Under 1.5 threes, +105 (Bet365), fair -115, +9.7%. Citron makes 1.29 threes a game on 3.94 attempts, per ESPN's game log, a 32.6% shooter from deep across 35 games, and she has finished with one or fewer in 24 of them. The last six are the shape of the bet: 1, 1, 4, 1, 1, 0, with the zero coming Sunday in Portland, where she played 33 minutes, scored 14, and did not attempt a three. She is the Mystics' assist leader at 4.2 a game, not their volume shooter, and Washington as a team takes 19.5 threes a night, the second-fewest of the six teams playing tonight. A 1.5 line asks a player who averages 1.29 to clear it, and our de-vig says the market leans Under harder than Bet365 does: strip the vig from both sides and the Under is a -115 favorite. Bet365 is paying +105 for it. That is a 20-cent overlay, the widest anywhere in this capture.
Now the part I promised. The only time Citron has faced Phoenix this season, August 9 in Washington, she went 5-of-6 from three, 19 points in 27 minutes, in a 95-75 Mystics win. It was her best three-point night of the year by a wide margin; her next-best is 4, twice. So the one data point that speaks directly to this matchup says Over, and if you stop reading there, you take the other side. Here is why I do not. That game was a 20-point blowout in which Citron played 27 minutes, six below her season average, and took six threes, her most in that stretch, and made five. The volume was elevated and the shooting was absurd, and neither has repeated: her attempts in the seven games from that night forward are 6, 4, 4, 5, 4, 4, 0. A 32.6% shooter taking four threes makes 1.3 of them. The line is 1.5. One hot night against a Mercury team that plays at 65.1 field goal attempts a game, the lowest volume of the six tonight, does not move a season rate.
One more thing, because you will see it elsewhere today: the instinct after a 5-of-6 night is to take the Over, and that is the side being recommended elsewhere on the strength of that August 9 line. I understand the logic and I am on the other side of it. Our fair makes the Over the dog, the side that hits 11 times in 35, and the Under, the side that hits 24 times in 35, is the one Bet365 is selling at plus money. That is the difference between a take and an edge.
The matchup context cuts the same way. Phoenix is 13-24, 5-12 at home, has lost two straight, and is without Marta Suarez, per ESPN, with Sami Whitcomb day-to-day. Washington is 22-15, sits fourth in the East, and won the first meeting by 20. A second comfortable Mystics win compresses Citron's fourth-quarter minutes the same way the first one did, and a compressed-minutes game is where a three-point Under lives. Take the exact price or better.
What +9.7% Actually Buys You
Walk the row with me, because a lead number is easy to mistake for a big edge, and the math is more modest than the headline. Value is price against true probability, never confidence in a single stat line.
What the market believes. Stripping the vig from both sides of the threes market leaves a fair price of -115 on the Under, a 53.5% implied probability.
What the price demands. At +105 you risk $100 to win $105, an implied break-even of 48.8%. The market hands you 53.5%; the price only asks for 48.8%.
What that pays. Run 53.5% through a +105 payout and the Under returns just under ten cents of expected value per dollar risked, the +9.7% that leads the card. That is real +EV, and it still loses about 47 times in 100. A near-double-digit edge on a prop is the top of the range for this series, not a reason to bet like the outcome is known.
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The Rest Of Mystics-Mercury: Amoore's Heater And Plum's Return
Five more rows live in the same game, and they do not all point the same direction, which is the first thing that makes this card different from the last three.
Georgia Amoore Over 1.5 threes, +122 (Bet365), fair +105, +8.3%. This is the second-widest edge on the board and it is the opposite bet from the lead: an Over on a teammate, in the same game, on the same market. Amoore averages 1.24 threes on 4.00 attempts, and she has cleared 1.5 in only 12 of 37 games, so the Over is the less likely side and our fair says so at +105. The bet is the 17-cent gap between that and Bet365's +122, and the reason the gap exists is timing. Amoore has made exactly three threes in each of her last three games, 3-of-6, 3-of-6, and 3-of-4, scoring 9, 10, and 13 points in 24 to 29 minutes, the first three-game run of that kind all season. The counter-case is the same game that hurts the lead: she went 0-for-4 against Phoenix on August 9. A dog price on a shooter in form, into a Mercury team that has lost two straight, is a half-size ticket at +122 or better. Citron Under and Amoore Over are not a contradiction; they are two different players, one shooting below her line all season and one running hot above it for a week, and the market has mispriced both.
Kelsey Plum Under 1.5 threes, +155 (Bet365), fair +145, +4.1%. Here is the returning All-Star. Plum, the Mercury guard, is not listed on Phoenix's injury report for tonight, per ESPN, after missing three games with a left calf injury, the one she suffered against these same Mystics on August 9, when she left after 14 minutes. She averages 2.44 threes on 6.31 attempts in 16 games this season, so on a full night the Under is the wrong side and our fair says so at +145. The bet is not her rate; it is her minutes. A player coming off two weeks out for a calf, on a 13-24 team sitting sixth in the West, is a candidate for a controlled workload, and fewer minutes means fewer of the six attempts that make 2.44 possible. Bet365's +155 against a +145 fair is a ten-cent overlay on a dog, so the row is shop-only, and only once she is confirmed active. If she plays 32 minutes, I am wrong.
Kelsey Plum Under 2.5 rebounds, -140 (Bet365), fair -148, +2.3%. The cleaner Plum row, because it does not need the minutes argument. She has stayed under 2.5 rebounds in 10 of 16 games this season, our fair already makes the Under a -148 favorite, and Bet365 is eight cents better than fair. It voids if she sits, it is helped if she is capped, and it is the favored side either way. Shop-only at -140 or better.
Michaela Onyenwere Under 1.5 threes, -115 (HardRock), fair -123, +3.1%. The Mystics forward is a 40.3% three-point shooter on 3.61 attempts, and she has stayed under 1.5 in 19 of 33 games, which is why our fair favors the Under. The reason I am not sizing it: her last three games are 4-of-8, 2-of-6, and 2-of-4, all Overs, and she went 3-of-6 in the first Phoenix meeting. Eight cents of overlay on a favored side against a three-game run of Overs is a shop-only row, not a ticket.
The read on this game: six rows, three ideas. Washington wins comfortably again and the fourth quarter shrinks for the shooters on both sides (Citron, Onyenwere, Copper), Plum comes back for Phoenix on a controlled workload (both Plum rows), and Amoore keeps shooting the way she has for a week. Lead with Citron, half-size Amoore, wait on Plum.
Kahleah Copper Under 1.5 threes, +150 (Caesars), fair +146, +1.6%. Copper leads the Mercury at 21.0 points a game, takes 5.78 threes a night at 29.4%, and just went for 38 on 3-of-7 from deep against Atlanta on Sunday. Four cents of overlay on a dog price on the opponent's best player is a pass unless the number improves.
The Early Game: Cardoso's Assists And Three Sky-Sun Rows
The 7:00 p.m. ET tip at Mohegan Sun Arena is Chicago (15-23) at Connecticut (9-27), and the reason four rows cleared here is that both rosters changed in the last two weeks.
Kamilla Cardoso Under 2.5 assists, +100 (Fanatics), fair -111, +5.2%. Cardoso is the Sky's leading scorer and rebounder at 14.7 and 8.8, and she averages 2.49 assists, so the 2.5 line splits her season almost exactly: 20 games under, 17 over. Our fair leans Under at -111 and Fanatics is paying even money, an 11-cent overlay. The case is in her three games against this opponent, where she had 3, 0, and 1 assists in 33, 23, and 21 minutes, and in the shape of her recent assist nights. Her two four-assist games in the last week came in 32 and 35 minutes against New York and Golden State, playoff-caliber opponents that kept the Sky's starters on the floor. Connecticut is 9-27, has lost two straight by a combined 32 points, and is missing its leading scorer and playmaker, Leila Lacan, who has left to join France's training camp ahead of the FIBA World Cup and will miss the Sun's final four games before the break, per the team. Brittney Griner is out with a knee injury and Olivia Nelson-Ododa is day-to-day. A shorthanded Sun team and a Chicago lead is the script that sends Cardoso to the bench in the fourth, and a center who plays 24 minutes does not get to three assists. Half-size at even money or better, and read the assists-prop playbook if you want the framework behind the minutes argument. The risk is Chicago's road record, 5-13, which says the blowout is not a given.
Courtney Vandersloot Over 2.5 rebounds, -120 (Fanatics), fair -128, +2.9%. The one Over in the game, and a favored side at fair. Vandersloot has 2.67 rebounds a game in her 21 appearances since debuting June 26, over 2.5 in 12 of them, and she has played 25 or more minutes in seven of her last eight games, including five of the six since Skylar Diggins went out on August 9. Connecticut is without Griner and may be without Nelson-Ododa, its leading rebounder at 5.9, which leaves boards on the floor for a guard who had 5 in 23 minutes against this team on July 31. Eight cents of overlay on the favored side, shop-only, and a natural pair with the Cardoso row: both get better if the Sky control the game.
Sydney Taylor Under 1.5 threes, +150 (Bet365), fair +139, +4.6%. A dog-price row, and the reason it is a dog is the season rate: Taylor makes 2.06 threes on 5.94 attempts and has cleared 1.5 in 18 of 31 games. The reason it is on the card is what has happened to her minutes. She did not appear in the Sky's five games between August 6 and August 16, and in the three since her return she has played 17, 18, and 17 minutes, going 1-of-6, 4-of-6, and 0-of-6. Against Connecticut she is 0-of-1, 1-of-8, and 2-of-7 in three meetings. The minutes are down but the attempts are not, six in each of the three games, so this is a shooting-rate bet, not a volume bet: a streaky shooter on an 18-minute leash, into a team she has shot 3-of-16 against. An 11-cent overlay on a dog price is shop-only.
Kennedy Burke Under 9.5 points, +115 (Bet365), fair +106, +4.4%. The row I trust least, and I will tell you exactly why. Burke, the Sun guard, averages 8.69 points and has stayed under 9.5 in 18 of 35 games, and she scored 8 and 7 in her two games against Chicago. Our fair makes the Under a slight dog at +106, Bet365 pays +115. All of that is fine. The problem is the roster: with Lacan gone and Griner out, somebody has to take the shots, and Burke has scored 17, 11, and 11 in her last three, all Overs, on 12, 11, and 13 attempts. This morning's capture already knew Lacan was gone, so the fair already accounts for some of that, but a nine-cent overlay against a usage bump is a shop-only number I would let go if the price moves a single cent.
Fire At Wings: A Clinch Night With Two Thin Rebound Rows
The 8:00 p.m. ET game at College Park Center is the one with the most on the line and the least on the card, and the number that explains both rows is 22.4: that is how many defensive rebounds Portland pulls a game, the fewest of the six teams playing tonight, and it is why a Dallas rebounder's line sits above her season average and a Portland guard's sits at a number she rarely reaches. Dallas (22-16, 12-6 at home) clinches a playoff spot with a win over Portland (15-22, 7-11 on the road), per the Wings, and it comes in on two straight wins, 91-85 over Indiana and 92-70 over Seattle. The Fire have lost two straight, including 105-100 to Washington on Sunday, and are without Sarah Ashlee Barker, Sania Feagin, and Luisa Geiselsoder. Dallas is without Azzi Fudd, Aziaha James, and Costanza Verona. The two prior meetings were both in Portland: an 84-83 Fire win on June 14 and a 101-97 Wings win on July 23. This is the first one in Arlington.
Carla Leite Under 2.5 rebounds, -125 (HardRock), fair -131, +2.1%. Leite runs the Fire at 15.8 points and 6.3 assists, and rebounds are the stat she does not collect: 2.15 a game, under 2.5 in 19 of 34. Our fair favors the Under at -131 and HardRock is six cents better. Against Dallas, though, she had 5 and 3, both Overs, so the two games that speak to this matchup both say the wrong thing. Shop-only.
Jessica Shepard Under 11.5 rebounds, -135 (HardRock), fair -139, +1.2%. Shepard leads the Wings at 11.1 rebounds a game and has stayed under 11.5 in 23 of 37, including 7, 8, and 11 in her last three. Here is why the line sits above her average anyway: she had 14 and 15 against Portland, and the Fire pull just 22.4 defensive rebounds a game, the fewest of the six teams playing tonight. The market has already moved the number for the matchup, which is why our fair still leans Under at -139 on a line she has cleared only 14 times all season, and why the overlay is only four cents. A soft-rebounding opponent is real, and it is already in the price. Pass unless the number improves, and read the rebounds-prop framework for why the opponent's glass matters more than the season average when a line moves.
The game has a real story, a Dallas clinch chance on its home floor against the Portland team chasing it, and no real number. That happens. The market prices clinch games tightly, and neither side nor the total surfaced as a takeable number on our board.
The Full August 25 Board, Graded
Every number from this morning's capture that cleared fair, sorted by edge. Twelve rows, three games, four books. Confirm each price live before you act; several of these are dog prices where a few cents is the entire pick.
| Game (ET) | Bet | Best takeable | Fair | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mystics @ Mercury, 10:00 | Sonia Citron Under 1.5 threes | +105 (Bet365) | -115 | +9.7% | Tonight's lead |
| Mystics @ Mercury, 10:00 | Georgia Amoore Over 1.5 threes | +122 (Bet365) | +105 | +8.3% | Half-size (dog price) |
| Sky @ Sun, 7:00 | Kamilla Cardoso Under 2.5 ast | +100 (Fanatics) | -111 | +5.2% | Half-size (needs a Sky lead) |
| Sky @ Sun, 7:00 | Sydney Taylor Under 1.5 threes | +150 (Bet365) | +139 | +4.6% | Shop only (dog price) |
| Sky @ Sun, 7:00 | Kennedy Burke Under 9.5 pts | +115 (Bet365) | +106 | +4.4% | Shop only (usage risk) |
| Mystics @ Mercury, 10:00 | Kelsey Plum Under 1.5 threes | +155 (Bet365) | +145 | +4.1% | Shop only, if active |
| Mystics @ Mercury, 10:00 | Michaela Onyenwere Under 1.5 threes | -115 (HardRock) | -123 | +3.1% | Shop only (three Overs in a row) |
| Sky @ Sun, 7:00 | Courtney Vandersloot Over 2.5 reb | -120 (Fanatics) | -128 | +2.9% | Shop only (pair w/ Cardoso) |
| Mystics @ Mercury, 10:00 | Kelsey Plum Under 2.5 reb | -140 (Bet365) | -148 | +2.3% | Shop only, if active |
| Fire @ Wings, 8:00 | Carla Leite Under 2.5 reb | -125 (HardRock) | -131 | +2.1% | Shop only |
| Mystics @ Mercury, 10:00 | Kahleah Copper Under 1.5 threes | +150 (Caesars) | +146 | +1.6% | Pass unless price improves |
| Fire @ Wings, 8:00 | Jessica Shepard Under 11.5 reb | -135 (HardRock) | -139 | +1.2% | Pass unless price improves |
The row worth staring at is the second one, because of what it says about the first. Citron Under and Amoore Over are the two widest edges on the board, in the same game, on the same market, in opposite directions. That is not the de-vig contradicting itself; it is two different rates. Citron averages 1.29 on a line of 1.5 and the market is paying plus money on the likely side. Amoore averages 1.24 on the same line and the market is paying +122 on a side her last three games say is livelier than her season. If you only make one bet tonight, it is the first row. If you make two, the second one is the natural pair, and the same-game parlay math says to keep them as singles rather than stack them, because a Mystics blowout helps one and hurts the other.
The game lines all grade the same way, so I will do them in one pass. Sky at Sun, 7:00. Chicago is the road favorite against a 9-27 team missing its best player, but the Sky are 5-13 on the road and the Sun are 6-12 at home, so both splits are bad and the line knows it. Pass. Fire at Wings, 8:00. Dallas is a clear home favorite with a clinch on the line and a 12-6 home record; Portland is 7-11 on the road. Nothing takeable on the side or the total. Pass. Mystics at Mercury, 10:00. Washington is a short road favorite, 9-8 away, against a Phoenix team that is 5-12 at home and lost the first meeting by 20; the market has priced the return of Plum into a line our board found nothing takeable on. Pass. Three games, three full passes on the sides, and every dollar of documented value tonight is in the player markets.
How To Bet A Board Like This
Twelve rows across three games is a different problem from six rows in one, and the discipline is the opposite: not concentration, but restraint across a spread. Here is the staking hierarchy for this exact board.
- Citron Under 1.5 Threes Is The Only Full Ticket, At +105 Or Better. If Bet365 moves toward the -115 fair, the edge is gone and so is the bet. It is a 53.5% proposition, and the August 9 game is the reminder.
- Amoore Over And Cardoso Under Get Half. One is a dog price on a heater, the other is a coin-flip line that needs Chicago to control the game on a floor where it is 5-13. Real edges, live counter-cases, half-size at +122 and +100 or better.
- Plum's Threes Under Needs Two Confirmations, Not One. Active is not enough; the row only works if her minutes are controlled. If Phoenix announces no restriction, let it go, because on a full night the Under is the wrong side. Her rebounds Under only needs her active.
- Everything Else Is The Listed Price Or Nothing. Taylor, Burke, Onyenwere, Vandersloot, Leite, and the Plum rebounds row are shop-only, and Copper and Shepard are passes unless the number improves.
- Cap Exposure Per Game, Not Per Row. The six Mystics-Mercury rows are three ideas: a comfortable Washington win shrinks the fourth quarter for the shooters on both sides (Citron, Onyenwere, Copper), Plum returns on a controlled workload (both Plum rows), and Amoore is hot. The four Sky-Sun rows are one idea: Chicago controls a shorthanded Sun team. One unit per game across the cluster, weighted to the lead row, is how the August 23 board handled its six-row cluster, and it holds bankroll exposure where it belongs.
- No Game Lines, Including The Clinch. A Dallas clinch spot reads like a bet and prices like one the market already made. Betting the Wings because the moment is big is a take, not an edge.
- Price Any Parlay Before You Place It. Same-game Unders make tempting legs and dishonest prices, as I laid out in my WNBA parlay piece. Run any build through the parlay builder so the combined ticket gets the same fair-value test as the singles, and compare it against the parlay of the day from August 19 before you copy either. When my own card has plays on it, it lives with the free expert picks on Tails, at my page.
The honest read on August 25 is that the board finally gave this series something to work with, and then put the two best numbers in the last game of the night. Citron Under 1.5 threes is the widest overlay we have documented in days, and the one game that argues against it is the one that makes it a bet rather than a fact. Amoore's Over is the same market, the other direction, and the same size of gap. Cardoso's Under is the early-game anchor, and it depends on Chicago doing on the road what it has done five times in eighteen tries. The card is playable only if the prices hold: Citron at +105 or better, Amoore at +122 or better, Cardoso at even money or better, and Plum only after she is confirmed active and, for the threes row, on a controlled workload. Let the game lines go. The Mystics and Mercury play again Thursday in Phoenix, so the late game tonight is also the scouting report for the next one. With the playoff seed race tightening behind Washington, that rematch will carry a line worth reading too.
- WNBA Best Bets Today, Aug 23: Flau'jae Johnson Under 3.5 Assists Leads
- WNBA Best Bets Today, Aug 18
- WNBA Playoff Picture: The Liberty's 8-Game Seed Race
- Best WNBA Parlay For Monday (7/13): The Boost Play
- WNBA Parlay Of The Day (Aug. 19)
FAQ
What are the best WNBA bets today, August 25? Sonia Citron Under 1.5 threes at +105 on Bet365, against a de-vigged fair price of -115, is the widest edge on the board at +9.7% in the Mystics-Mercury game at 10:00 p.m. ET. Georgia Amoore Over 1.5 threes at +122 on Bet365 (fair +105, +8.3%) and Kamilla Cardoso Under 2.5 assists at +100 on Fanatics (fair -111, +5.2%) are the other two rows above 5%. Nine smaller rows cleared fair, and no game line did in any of the three games.
Is Kelsey Plum playing tonight against the Mystics? She is expected to. Per ESPN, Plum is not listed on the Mercury's injury report for Tuesday's game against Washington after missing three games with a left calf injury, the one she suffered against these same Mystics on August 9. Two of tonight's rows are hers: the Under 1.5 threes needs her on a controlled workload to make sense, while the Under 2.5 rebounds only needs her active, because our fair already favors it. Confirm she is active before betting either.
Why is the lead a three-point Under on Sonia Citron? Because her season rate and the price both point the same way. Citron makes 1.29 threes a game on 3.94 attempts, per ESPN's game log, and has finished with one or fewer in 24 of 35 games, including five of her last six. Our de-vig makes the Under a -115 favorite, and Bet365 is paying +105 for it. The counter-argument is real: she went 5-of-6 from three against Phoenix on August 9, her best shooting night of the season.
Why did no game line make the card? Chicago is the road favorite at Connecticut, Dallas is a clear home favorite over Portland, and Washington is a short road favorite at Phoenix, and no moneyline, spread, or total in any of the three games surfaced as a takeable number on our board. A pass is part of the card. The value tonight is in the player markets.
Why is Georgia Amoore Over 1.5 threes on the card when she averages 1.24? Because the price is the bet, not the season average. Our fair makes the Over a +105 dog and Bet365 is paying +122, a 17-cent gap. She has also made exactly three threes in each of her last three games in 24 to 29 minutes, the first three-game run like that all season. She went 0-for-4 against Phoenix on August 9, so it is a dog price with a live counter-case, and it is sized that way.
How should I size bets on a card like this? Small everywhere. Citron's Under earns the standard small ticket at +105 or better. Amoore's Over and Cardoso's Under are half-size because one is a dog price and the other is a coin-flip line with a blowout dependency. Everything below 3% is shop-only, meaning the exact listed price or nothing, and the two Plum rows wait on her being confirmed active.
