The WNBA best bets today come from a four-game Sunday, August 23, and it is a day built on missing bodies and one tired team. The Chicago Sky are down two starters, the Toronto Tempo are missing five rotation players, the Dallas Wings and Portland Fire each have three out, and the Indiana Fever are the only team on the board playing the back end of a back-to-back, their third road game in four nights. That is the thesis for the whole card: tonight rewards whoever correctly guesses who inherits the ball because a teammate is out, and who has less in the tank.
Our de-vig found twelve numbers that beat fair across the four games, one early at 4:00 p.m. ET (Storm at Wings) and three at 7:00 p.m. ET (Fever at Sky, Mystics at Fire, Aces at Tempo). The widest edge is on a Seattle rookie's assists, the deepest cluster sits on the Fever-Sky game, and only one game-line number made it, a first-half spread on the Aces. I will walk you through all of it, in the order it tips, and by the end you will know why the one row I keep coming back to is not the one at the top.
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The Quick Answer
The best WNBA bet today is Flau'jae Johnson Under 3.5 assists at -105 on Bet365, against a de-vigged fair price of -124, a +8.3% edge in the Storm-Wings game at 4:00 p.m. ET. Emily Engstler Over 5.5 rebounds at +120 on DraftKings (fair +105, +7.3%) and Kelsey Mitchell Under 25.5 points at +105 on Hard Rock (fair -106, +5.5%) are the best of the 7:00 window. One first-half spread cleared; no full-game line did. The full twelve-row board, graded game by game, is below.
- Today's Lead: Flau'jae Johnson Under 3.5 Assists, -105 (Bet365), Fair -124, +8.3%. A line half an assist above what the Storm rookie averages, with the overlay widened by a book that has not caught up to fair.
- The Fever-Sky Game Carries Six Rows. Three Indiana Unders on the only team playing a back-to-back tonight, and three Chicago rows shaped by Skylar Diggins and Rickea Jackson being out.
- Three Rows Are Dog Prices. Engstler's rebounds, Sydney Taylor's assists, and the Aces first-half spread all carry plus-money or coin-flip fair numbers; the side we are on is not the favored outcome, and the value is only the overlay.
- One Game Line Cleared, And It Is A Half. Las Vegas Aces -8.5 first half at +105 on BetRivers, +2.0%, against a Tempo team missing five rotation players.
- Nothing Here Is A Lock. Three rows clear +5%; everything from Jackie Young's +3.1% down is a shop-the-exact-price number, not a standing order.
Odds captured 2026-08-23 at 15:56 UTC (11:56 a.m. ET). Every fair price below is our own de-vigged number from the OddsShopper live odds screen, which strips the vig from both sides of a market so you can see what a bet is actually worth. Small edges, small limits, four games to spread them across.
Today's Lead: Flau'jae Johnson Under 3.5 Assists
The early game is Seattle at Dallas, 4:00 p.m. ET, and the widest number on the board sits on a rookie guard for a 7-30 Storm team.
Flau'jae Johnson Under 3.5 assists, -105 (Bet365), fair -124, +8.3%. Johnson has started all 35 of her appearances for Seattle and averages 3.0 assists in 28.3 minutes, per ESPN's season page, against 2.5 turnovers. The two games she has missed are the first thing to know about this row: ESPN's box scores list her as a did-not-play with a left ankle injury on August 11 and August 15, and she returned August 16 for 30 minutes in Seattle's last game. She is back, and a week of rest since then helps, but an ankle that cost her two games two weeks ago is a reason to confirm she is on the floor and a reason a limited-minutes night is in play. Limited minutes cut both ways for an assists Under: fewer chances to get to four, and a prop that voids if she sits. A 3.5 line asks for a fourth assist from a player who averages three, and our de-vig agrees the market set it a touch high: strip the vig from both sides and the Under is a -124 favorite, while Bet365 is still selling it at -105. That is a 19-cent overlay, the widest we found anywhere in this capture.
Here is the risk, and it is a real one. Natisha Hiedeman, who leads the Storm at 4.8 assists per game, is listed out by ESPN with a shoulder injury, so confirm that pregame. Somebody has to run Seattle's offense, and the most obvious candidate is the starting guard who already averages three assists. That is the oldest edge in basketball props: when a starter sits, the teammate who inherits her job inherits her numbers. One thing cuts the other way, though, and it belongs in the read. Seattle has not played since August 16, a full week off, so Hiedeman's absence is not a surprise the Storm are absorbing on the fly; they have had seven days of practice to decide who handles it, and Johnson's whole profile says that plan is not built around her passing. Johnson is a 13.5-point scorer who shoots 12 times a night, and the Wings are favored by enough that a lopsided second half shrinks everyone's minutes, which helps an assists Under. But it is the reason the edge is +8.3% rather than something wider. Confirm she is active and take the exact price; if she is listed as limited, take it smaller.
The same game gives the card its heaviest favorite-priced row. Paige Bueckers Under 6.5 assists, -145 (Hard Rock), fair -158, +3.5%. Bueckers leads Dallas at 20.3 points and 5.8 assists, and the line sits almost a full assist above her average. The catch is the Wings' own injury report: ESPN lists Azzi Fudd (knee, out for the season), Aziaha James (leg), and Costanza Verona (personal) as out, which concentrates the ball in Bueckers' hands more than the season number suggests. I read this row the opposite way from Johnson's. With Johnson, the absence creates the risk; with Bueckers, the absences are already priced, because our fair of -158 is a heavy favorite on the Under even with three guards out. Hard Rock at -145 is a 13-cent overlay on a line the market believes in. The blowout angle helps here: if Dallas pulls away, Bueckers sits, and a sixth assist never comes.
Worked Example: What +8.3% Actually Buys You
Walk the Johnson row with me, because a lead number near double digits tempts people into treating it like a big edge, and the math is more modest than that. Value is price against true probability, never confidence in a single stat line.
What the market believes. Stripping the vig from both sides of the assists market leaves a fair price of -124 on the Under, a 55.5% implied probability.
What the price demands. At -105 you risk $105 to win $100, an implied break-even of 51.2%. The market hands you 55.5%; the price only asks for 51.2%.
What that pays. Run 55.5% through a -105 payout and the Under returns about eight cents of expected value per dollar risked: the +8.3% that leads the card. That is real +EV, and it still loses about 45 times in 100. The widest edge on a WNBA Sunday is a meaningful overlay, not a free square, which is the frame to carry into every row below it.
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The Deepest Cluster: Fever-Sky, Tired Legs Against A Short Bench
Half the card lives in Chicago, where the Fever visit the Sky at 7:00 p.m. ET. Six rows, and the two teams bring opposite problems to the same floor. Indiana is on the back end of a road back-to-back: Saturday at New York (a 109-102 loss), Sunday at Chicago, with Thursday's 91-85 loss at Dallas making it three road games in four nights. Chicago, which last played Friday, is rested but thin. ESPN's report has Skylar Diggins out with a knee injury, Rickea Jackson out for the season with a knee injury, and DiJonai Carrington day-to-day with a foot issue; some previews list Carrington out, so treat her as a pregame check. Caitlin Clark is active for Indiana, and she matters to every Fever row: she runs the offense at 8.2 assists and 21.7 points a night, and had 21 and 7 in 35 minutes at New York last night. The Fever rows are about fatigue inside a Clark-driven offense. The Sky rows are about who gets the ball.
Kelsey Mitchell Under 25.5 points, +105 (Hard Rock), fair -106, +5.5%. This is the row I keep coming back to, because it is the only place on the board where a scoring Under on a star comes with plus money and a reason. Mitchell leads the Fever at 24.7 points per game on 17.1 shots, so the line already asks for a shade more than her average. Then add the schedule. She has played 32.8 minutes a night all season, went 33 minutes in a 7:00 p.m. tip in New York last night, and gets another 7:00 tip in Chicago tonight, the only back-to-back on the board. Our de-vig makes the Under a slight -106 favorite; Hard Rock is paying +105 for it. Plus money on the favored side of a market is the cleanest kind of overlay there is. Now the risk, and it is loud: Mitchell scored 37 on Thursday in Dallas, which CBS Texas reported as a WNBA-record 21st straight game of 20 or more, then scored exactly 25 in New York, one point under tonight's bar. She is the hottest scorer in the league, Chicago's perimeter is shorthanded, and 30 is always on the table. That is why this is +5.5% and not the lead, and why it is a small ticket even at the top of its tier.
Her second row is the same idea, narrower. Kelsey Mitchell Under 3.5 threes, -145 (Hard Rock), fair -152, +1.9%. She makes 2.9 threes a game on 6.5 attempts, so the line sits above her average, and our fair already prices the Under as a clear favorite. Hard Rock is seven cents better than fair. It is shop-only, and it is correlated with her points Under; the two rise and fall together.
Sophie Cunningham Under 7.5 points, -105 (DraftKings), fair -111, +2.7% is the third Fever row, and I want to be careful with it. Cunningham averages 8.6 points in 23.2 minutes off the bench, so this line sits below her average, not above it. What makes the Under the favored side is her shot profile: she takes just 5.5 shots a game, 3.8 of them threes, so a quiet night where two of those miss leaves her at five or six points. Our fair says -111; DraftKings is at -105. A six-cent overlay on a bench scorer's points is a shop-only price, not a position.
Now the Sky side, where Diggins' absence does the work. Sydney Taylor Over 2.5 assists, +190 (Bet365), fair +179, +3.9%. Let me be straight about the pecking order first. Diggins' playmaking does not land on Taylor; it lands on Courtney Vandersloot, who is active and averages 4.9 assists in 21.6 minutes, and on Natasha Cloud at 5.0. Taylor averages 1.7 assists in 20.4 minutes, so on the season numbers this is the less likely side of the market, and our fair of +179 says so plainly. The case is narrower than a vacated role and still real: with Diggins and Jackson out and Carrington a question, Chicago is running two handlers and a scorer, and Taylor, who has started 19 of her 30 games and scores 14.5 points in 20 minutes, is the scorer whose minutes go up. More minutes with the ball is how a 1.7-assist guard gets to three. Bet365 pays +190 for a side worth +179, an 11-cent overlay on a dog price. It is a lean, it is sized as a dog price, and it is the row on this card I would drop first if Carrington is in.
Her other row pulls the opposite direction. Sydney Taylor Under 15.5 points, -108 (Caesars), fair -114, +2.7%. The line sits a full point above her 14.5 average, our de-vig makes the Under a -114 favorite, and Caesars is at -108. It is thin, and it is in mild tension with the assists Over: the same usage that produces a third assist can produce a sixteenth point. They are not mutually exclusive, but they are one player, so give the Over the stake if you only want one.
Natasha Cloud Under 1.5 threes, +100 (Bet365), fair -106, +2.7% rounds out Chicago. Cloud averages 5.0 assists per ESPN and makes 1.2 threes a night on 3.4 attempts, so one make is her median night and the Under is fractionally the favored side. Even money for a -106 side is a six-cent overlay, and with Diggins out Cloud and Vandersloot are the ball-handlers, which points Cloud toward passing rather than spotting up. Shop-only. Take +100 or leave it.
The read on this game: six rows, but only one of them, Mitchell's points Under, is a favorite-priced number with plus money attached and a schedule reason behind it. Lead with that one. The other five share what is left, and the Taylor pair and the Mitchell pair each count as one opinion, not two.
Six rows on one game is correlated exposure, and the way to hold it is the way the August 18 board handled its five-row Liberty-Sky cluster: cap the total stake on the game itself, lead with the cleanest row, and let the rest share the remainder.
The Second-Best Number: Engstler's Boards In Portland
Portland is where the second-widest edge lives. The Mystics visit the Fire at 7:00 p.m. ET, and the number is on a Fire forward's rebounds.
Emily Engstler Over 5.5 rebounds, +120 (DraftKings), fair +105, +7.3%. Engstler leads Portland at 5.3 rebounds in 24.1 minutes, so the line sits a shade above her average, and our de-vig makes the Over a slight dog at +105. The reason it is on the card anyway is the gap: DraftKings pays +120, a 15-cent overlay, the second-widest on the board. The reason I like the Over more than the fair number suggests is Portland's frontcourt. Sania Feagin (knee) and Luisa Geiselsoder (personal) are both out, and Sarah Ashlee Barker is out for the season with a knee injury, so the boards that would go to a second forward or a backup center are available for Engstler, and the Mystics' best rebounder, Shakira Austin at 9.5 a game, is a single player, not a committee. Two caveats keep this from being the lead. Portland's last game was Friday night in Vancouver, an 82-79 loss to a Tempo team missing five players, and a thin frontcourt is a two-way street: more boards available for Engstler, but also a Mystics team that can attack an undersized interior. And the fair number is still plus money, so the Over is the less likely side; the value is the overlay. Standard small ticket, not a big one.
Shakira Austin Over 2.5 assists, -120 (Bet365), fair -130, +3.6% is the Mystics row. Austin is a center who averages 2.6 assists, which makes a 2.5 line a coin flip that the market leans toward the Over on; our fair says -130, Bet365 is at -120, a ten-cent overlay. Washington lost to Minnesota on Friday and, like Portland, had Saturday off, so rest is a wash in this one. Engstler's Over and Austin's Over are two different bets; one is about Portland's missing bodies, the other about Washington's half-court offense running through its center.
The Late Window's Other Game: One Half Of The Aces In Vancouver
Then there is Vancouver, which is where the Tempo are hosting the Aces tonight, 7:00 p.m. ET at Rogers Arena per ESPN's listing. Toronto beat Portland 82-79 on Friday night to snap a 12-game losing streak, and did it short-handed: Marina Mabrey, Brittney Sykes (foot), Aneesah Morrow (knee), Maria Conde (calf), and Nyara Sabally (calf) are all listed out by ESPN, which removes the team's leading scorer and most of its rotation. The Aces are the biggest favorite on the board by a distance, and that is the whole shape of this game.
Las Vegas Aces -8.5 first half, +105 (BetRivers), fair +101, +2.0%. This is the only game-line number on the card, and it is a half, not a full game. Our de-vig makes the first-half spread a coin flip at +101, and BetRivers pays +105, a small overlay. The first half is the right place to be on the Aces for a simple reason: the blowout risk that kills full-game overs and star props cuts the other way here. If Las Vegas is up big at halftime, the first-half bet has already cashed, and whatever happens when A'ja Wilson sits the fourth quarter is somebody else's problem. The Tempo's win on Friday is the counter-argument; a team that just ended a 12-game skid with five players out may not roll over early. It is a +2.0% edge and a shop-only price.
Jackie Young Over 6.5 assists, -115 (Bet365), fair -123, +3.1% is the one Aces prop. Young averages 6.6 assists in 32.5 minutes, second on the team to Chelsea Gray's 6.8, and Dana Evans, a 16-minute reserve, is listed out by ESPN with a leg injury, which leaves one fewer guard to share the playmaking. Our fair makes the Over a -123 favorite; Bet365 is at -115. The risk is the one I just described from the other side: a double-digit favorite against a gutted roster is exactly the game where starters sit the fourth quarter, and an assists Over needs minutes. That tension keeps it at +3.1% and shop-only: it stays on the board at the exact price, reduced size, and the first-half spread is the cleaner way to express the same Aces lean.
The Full August 23 Board, Graded
Every number from today's capture that cleared fair, sorted by edge. Twelve rows, seven Unders, four Overs, one first-half spread, four games, five books. Confirm each price live before you act; on a card this thin, the listed number is the entire pick.
| Game (ET) | Bet | Best takeable | Fair | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storm @ Wings, 4:00 | Flau'jae Johnson Under 3.5 ast | -105 (Bet365) | -124 | +8.3% | Tonight's lead |
| Mystics @ Fire, 7:00 | Emily Engstler Over 5.5 reb | +120 (DraftKings) | +105 | +7.3% | Play (dog price) |
| Fever @ Sky, 7:00 | Kelsey Mitchell Under 25.5 pts | +105 (Hard Rock) | -106 | +5.5% | Play (late lead) |
| Fever @ Sky, 7:00 | Sydney Taylor Over 2.5 ast | +190 (Bet365) | +179 | +3.9% | Lean (dog price) |
| Mystics @ Fire, 7:00 | Shakira Austin Over 2.5 ast | -120 (Bet365) | -130 | +3.6% | Lean |
| Storm @ Wings, 4:00 | Paige Bueckers Under 6.5 ast | -145 (Hard Rock) | -158 | +3.5% | Lean |
| Aces @ Tempo, 7:00 | Jackie Young Over 6.5 ast | -115 (Bet365) | -123 | +3.1% | Shop only |
| Fever @ Sky, 7:00 | Sophie Cunningham Under 7.5 pts | -105 (DraftKings) | -111 | +2.7% | Shop only |
| Fever @ Sky, 7:00 | Sydney Taylor Under 15.5 pts | -108 (Caesars) | -114 | +2.7% | Shop only (pair w/ her ast) |
| Fever @ Sky, 7:00 | Natasha Cloud Under 1.5 threes | +100 (Bet365) | -106 | +2.7% | Shop only |
| Aces @ Tempo, 7:00 | Las Vegas Aces -8.5 1H | +105 (BetRivers) | +101 | +2.0% | Shop only (coin flip) |
| Fever @ Sky, 7:00 | Kelsey Mitchell Under 3.5 threes | -145 (Hard Rock) | -152 | +1.9% | Shop only (pair w/ her pts) |
The row worth staring at is the third one, because of what it says about the first two. Johnson's +8.3% leads, but the Storm's assists leader is listed out, the rookie may inherit the ball, and she is two weeks removed from an ankle injury; Engstler's +7.3% is second, but her fair number is plus money, so the Over is the less likely side before the overlay. Mitchell's +5.5% is smaller than both, and it is the only one of the three where the favored side of the market is paying plus money and the situational read (the back end of a road back-to-back) pushes the same direction as the price. Same neighborhood of edge, very different amount of noise around it. Those are the three I would size first on a small-stake card, with the nine rows behind them reduced or skipped unless the exact price is still live.
The Slate Rundown: Where The Game Lines Landed
The intent of this card is every priced game against fair, so here is the game-line read for all four. Our capture surfaced player props on every game and one qualifying game-line number, the Aces first-half spread above. No full-game moneyline, spread, or total cleared fair anywhere, so there is no full-game number to post.
- Storm At Wings, 4:00. Dallas is a clear home favorite against a 7-30 Seattle team that has lost four of its last five, and a clear favorite is exactly the line the market prices tightly. Pass on the side; the value is in the two assists Unders, and a Dallas blowout helps both.
- Fever At Sky, 7:00. Indiana is the road favorite on a back-to-back, and Chicago has won three straight, including Wednesday's win over New York with Diggins already out. If I were going to bet a full-game side tonight it would be the rested home dog here, and our de-vig still found no price on it that beat fair. Pass, and let the six props carry the disagreement.
- Mystics At Fire, 7:00. Washington is the road favorite, which is where most of the picks sites we checked this morning landed too, and that consensus is exactly why the number is tight. We could not find a fair-beating price on it. Pass.
- Aces At Tempo, 7:00. Las Vegas is the biggest favorite on the board against a Tempo team missing five rotation players, and the full-game spread prices that in. The first half is the only slice that cleared, and only barely, because it is the slice the fourth-quarter bench cannot touch.
Four games, three full passes, one half-game lean. Passes belong on the card; the value we can actually document tonight is in the player markets.
How To Bet A Board Like This
Twelve rows, four games, five books, three dog prices, and a six-row cluster on one game. That profile makes most of the decisions for you.
- Lead With The Three Rows Above +5%. Johnson's assists, Engstler's boards, and Mitchell's points earn the standard small ticket. Everything else is a smaller stake or a shop-only price.
- Read The Sky's Report Before You Touch The Taylor Rows. Her assists Over is built on Diggins and Jackson being out and Carrington being day-to-day, with Vandersloot and Cloud already ahead of her for touches. If Carrington plays, the case thins to nothing but the overlay. That is one injury report changing two rows.
- Handle The Three Dog Prices Differently. Engstler's Over, Taylor's assists Over, and the Aces first-half spread all carry plus-money or coin-flip fair numbers, so the side we are on is not the favored outcome. Each sits at the bottom of whatever tier its edge puts it in, the same lesson the August 18 edition applied to its plus-money Unders.
- Count Opinions, Not Tickets. Mitchell's two Unders are one opinion on a tired scorer. Taylor's two rows are one opinion on her usage. Johnson and Bueckers are two separate opinions in the same game, but a Dallas blowout helps both, so cap bankroll exposure per game, not just per player.
- Size Vancouver For The Blowout. A double-digit favorite against a five-out roster is the archetype of the game that sits starters in the fourth. The first-half spread is built for that; Jackie Young's assists Over needs minutes, so it gets the smaller stake of the two.
- Price Any Parlay Before You Place It. Same-game Unders make tempting legs and dishonest prices, as I laid out in my WNBA parlay piece. Run any build through the parlay builder so the combined ticket gets the same fair-value test as the singles. And when my own card has plays on it, it lives with the free expert picks on Tails, at my page.
The honest read on August 23 is that the injury report wrote the card. Twelve rows cleared, the widest by +8.3%, and the three best of them are all stories about bodies: a rookie who may have to run an offense because the starter who usually does is out, a forward who inherits the boards because her frontcourt is gone, and a star scorer asked to do it on the second night of a back-to-back. That is the thesis I opened with, and the board bore it out. The only game line that survived was a half, on the one game where the blowout risk works in the bettor's favor. Bet the three leads properly, treat the Fever-Sky cluster as one position that a pregame report can change, and shop the tail ruthlessly. On a Sunday this short-handed, discipline is the entire edge.
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FAQ
What are the best WNBA bets today, August 23? Flau'jae Johnson Under 3.5 assists at -105 on Bet365, against a de-vigged fair price of -124, is the best number on the board at +8.3% in the Storm-Wings game at 4:00 p.m. ET. Emily Engstler Over 5.5 rebounds at +120 on DraftKings (+7.3%) in Mystics-Fire and Kelsey Mitchell Under 25.5 points at +105 on Hard Rock (+5.5%) in Fever-Sky are the next-best plays.
Why are the Fever props all Unders tonight? Indiana is on the back end of a road back-to-back, at New York on Saturday and at Chicago on Sunday, its third road game in four nights after Thursday's loss at Dallas, and it lost both of the first two. Kelsey Mitchell's 25.5-point line sits above her 24.7 season average, her 3.5 threes line sits above her 2.9 made per game, and our de-vig prices the Under as the favored side in all three Fever markets.
Is Skylar Diggins playing for the Sky tonight? No. ESPN's injury report lists Diggins out with a knee injury and Rickea Jackson out for the season with a knee injury, with DiJonai Carrington day-to-day with a foot issue. The vacated playmaking goes first to Courtney Vandersloot and Natasha Cloud, but the Sky still have to find a third handler, which is why Sydney Taylor Over 2.5 assists at +190 is on the card as a dog price and why her points Under is the thinner of her two rows.
Why did only one game-line number make the card? Our capture surfaced player props on all four games and one first-half spread, Las Vegas Aces -8.5 at +105 on BetRivers (+2.0%). No full-game moneyline, spread, or total cleared fair. The Aces, Wings, Fever, and Mystics are all favorites, and favorites in expected-lopsided games get priced tightly. Passes are part of the card.
What does a "dog price" mean on this card? Three rows, Emily Engstler Over 5.5 rebounds (fair +105), Sydney Taylor Over 2.5 assists (fair +179), and the Aces first-half spread (fair +101), have fair prices that are themselves plus money or a coin flip. That means the side we are on is not the market's favored outcome; the only value is the gap between the book's price and fair, and they should be sized below the favorite-priced plays.
What if a price moves before I can bet it? Then the edge moved with it. Every row here is graded against one specific number at one specific book, captured at 11:56 a.m. ET. If Bet365 has moved Johnson's Under to -120 against a -124 fair, there is almost nothing left; skip it rather than chasing. The exact listed price is the pick.
How should I size bets on a card like this? Small everywhere, in three tiers. The three rows above +5% earn a standard small ticket, with Engstler at the low end of that tier because her fair price is plus money. The +3.5% to +3.9% rows earn half of that. Anything at or below +3.1% is shop-only, meaning the exact listed price or nothing. Cap exposure on the Fever-Sky game, which carries six of the twelve rows.
