WNBA Parlay Of The Day For Thursday, August 13: A Chalk Board With Zero Edge
The WNBA parlay of the day for Thursday, August 13 starts with the least popular answer this column gives: there isn't one worth firing. I pulled the de-vigged screen on tonight's three-game slate at 20:47 UTC, and not a single takeable number on the board sits above its fair price. Every favorite is priced right, every total is priced right, and a parlay built out of prices that are already fair just multiplies the house's cut instead of your edge. Efficiency is the whole story of tonight's slate, and the useful version of a "parlay of the day" on a night like this is showing you exactly how I know there's no bet, which two numbers come closest to being one, and what even the tightest possible ticket still costs. Then you get to make the disciplined call with the math in front of you.
The Quick Answer
There is no +EV parlay on Thursday's WNBA board. Every market our capture priced sits at or below de-vigged fair, so the disciplined play is a pass. The two closest-to-fair numbers are the Las Vegas Aces first-half moneyline (-180, fair -179) and the New York Liberty first-half moneyline (-265, fair -256), and even a two-leg ticket built from those loses about a point of value to the vig. The full board, the de-vig proof, and the sizing math for the action-only crowd are all below.
Tonight's Board, Priced To The Penny
Three games are on the Thursday card: Atlanta at Connecticut in the 7:00 p.m. ET window, Los Angeles at New York at 8:00, and Washington at Las Vegas capping the night at 10:00. Here is every market in the capture that carried a takeable price, sorted by how close it lands to fair, which is another way of saying sorted from least bad to worst:
| Market | Game | Fair | Best Takeable | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces 1H Moneyline | Mystics @ Aces | -179 | -180 (Hard Rock Bet) | -0.2% |
| New York Liberty 1H Moneyline | Sparks @ Liberty | -256 | -265 (FanDuel) | -0.9% |
| Sparks @ Liberty Under 186.5 | Sparks @ Liberty | -101 | -105 (Hard Rock Bet) | -1.9% |
| Washington Mystics 1H Moneyline | Mystics @ Aces | +179 | +172 (FanDuel) | -2.5% |
| Mystics @ Aces 1H Under 81.5 | Mystics @ Aces | -101 | -110 (BetMGM) | -4.1% |
The row that tells the night's story is the top one. The Aces first-half moneyline is fair at -179, and Hard Rock Bet is charging -180 for it, a two-tenths-of-a-percent gap that is basically a rounding error. That price is as close to free as this slate gets, and close to fair is not the same as a bet. Below it, every number gets worse, not better. The Atlanta-Connecticut game, where the Dream sit at a fair -434, returned no takeable number in our capture at all, so there's nothing to quote there beyond a lopsided fair line you wouldn't want anyway.
Why Zero Markets Cleared Fair
Start with the top line to see what de-vigging actually does. Las Vegas is -179 to win the first half at fair value, and Hard Rock Bet wants -180 for it; that two-tenths-of-a-point gap is the sportsbook's margin laid bare. De-vigging runs that same subtraction on every market at once: strip the built-in margin off both sides and you're left with the price each outcome is truly worth. When the best number you can bet is worse than that fair price, the book keeps the difference and you're paying to place the bet. On the Aces it's a rounding error; on tonight's Mystics first-half under it's a full 4.1 points. Pay that tax on one wager and it's small. Pay it across a two- or three-leg parlay and the taxes compound, which is the exact reason most parlays lose even when every leg wins more often than not.
Tonight there is no counterweight to that math. On a good WNBA night the screen hands me a prop or a side priced above fair, and I anchor the ticket to it. This board doesn't. Vegas is fair. New York is fair. The two totals that carry a price are a point or two of vig underwater, and the Mystics first-half number, at fair +179 with FanDuel paying +172, is the underdog side priced for less than it's worth. There is no leg that pays you to take it, so there is no parlay that turns a profit by combining them.
The Worked Example: What The Tightest Ticket Still Costs
Say you want a ticket anyway, purely for something to watch. The most defensible one is the two lowest-vig numbers on the board, and they cooperate on one point that matters: they live in different games, so nothing that happens in Brooklyn touches the Aces' first half in Las Vegas. Independent legs multiply cleanly, with no same-game correlation tax layered on top.
| Leg | Bet | Best Price | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas Aces 1H Moneyline | -180 (Hard Rock Bet) | -179 | -0.2% |
| 2 | New York Liberty 1H Moneyline | -265 (FanDuel) | -256 | -0.9% |
Now the expected-value math, start to finish:
- Aces first-half fair probability: 64.2%
- Liberty first-half fair probability: 71.9%
- True combined chance both cash: 0.642 × 0.719 = 46.2%
A 46.2% outcome is worth about 2.17 in decimal odds at a fair price. The ticket the books actually sell, -180 with -265, prices out near 2.14 in decimal odds. Getting 2.14 on something worth 2.17 is the whole problem in one line: risk $100 and the slip returns about $114 in profit a little under half the time, which nets to roughly a -1.1% edge on the parlay. This is the best-case ticket on the board, the two tightest numbers there are, and it still hands the house about a point. Every other combination you could build tonight is worse, because every other leg starts from a bigger hole than these two.
The takeaway: a parlay never creates value, it only multiplies whatever you feed it. Feed it two fair prices and you don't get a fair parlay, you get a slightly negative one, because the small vig on each leg compounds. On a board with nothing above fair, the winning move is the one nobody screenshots: no ticket.
Sizing: The Number Is Zero
The honest sizing answer flows straight from that -1.1%. Any staking method built on edge, Kelly included, returns the same instruction on a negative-EV bet: stake nothing. There's no bankroll percentage to recommend because the math doesn't support a bet at all.
If you're going to put something on the two-leg first-half ticket purely for the watch, treat it like a movie rental, not an investment. Keep it to entertainment money you won't feel, re-confirm both prices at tip since an afternoon capture drifts before the 10:00 tip-off, and know going in that you're paying the book a point for the company. The difference between a parlay and a straight bet matters even here: if you only care about the Aces first half, betting it alone at -180 costs you less than roping the Liberty into it.
Check It Yourself Before You Fire
You don't have to take my read on faith, and you shouldn't. Load tonight's two legs into the parlay builder, and it shows you the combined price so you can hold it against the 2.17 fair number yourself. Or open the de-vigged WNBA odds screen, sort by edge, and watch every row come back at zero or red. When the top of that sort is a favorite priced at -0.2%, the board is telling you to save the bankroll for a night it actually gives you something, the kind of live-edge slate the July 17 edition and the July 13 original were built on.
That de-vig across every major book is the work I otherwise do by hand, and OddsShopper runs it automatically. The 7-day trial is free, and code WNBAPOD20 takes 20% off your first OS Pro or OS Core payment after it.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the WNBA parlay of the day for August 13? There isn't a bettable one. Every takeable price on Thursday's three-game board sits at or below its de-vigged fair value, so no leg pays you to take it and no parlay turns a profit by combining them. The disciplined play is a pass.
What are the two closest-to-fair numbers if I want action anyway? The Las Vegas Aces first-half moneyline (-180 at Hard Rock Bet, fair -179) and the New York Liberty first-half moneyline (-265 at FanDuel, fair -256). Combined they price near 2.14 in decimal odds, about $114 profit on $100, and still grade at roughly -1.1% because even fair legs concede the vig when you parlay them.
Why not just parlay the favorites since they'll probably win? Because "probably wins" and "priced to profit" are different things. The Aces and Liberty are favorites the market has already priced correctly, so betting them at or below fair pays you nothing for being right. Value is price versus true probability, not the shortest number on the board.
Is there any single bet worth making tonight? Not from this capture. The best number on the board is a -0.2% first-half moneyline, which is essentially fair, and everything else is more clearly negative. Re-check closer to the 7:00, 8:00, and 10:00 p.m. ET tips, because prices move and a fresh edge can surface late.
The Bottom Line
Thursday's WNBA board is a clean, efficient three-game slate, and efficient is exactly what you don't want as a bettor hunting a parlay. The de-vig found no leg above fair, which means the ticket that looks tidiest, two first-half favorites in two different buildings, still bleeds about a point to the house. Betting it is optional and it's fine as entertainment, but it isn't the parlay of the day, because there is no +EV parlay of the day. Save the bullet, run the same de-vig on tomorrow's board, and fire only when a real number shows up above fair, the way the best-bets series reads a slate every morning.
OddsShopper does the de-vig and the line shopping across every major book for you, so you can tell a chalk night from a live one in a glance. Code WNBAPOD20 takes 20% off OS Pro or OS Core after the free week.
