Billboard Hot 100 This Week: What The Market Has At No. 1, Choosin' Texas 99¢
The number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 this week is Choosin' Texas, and there is now a quieter place than the charts to argue about whether it stays there: a regulated exchange where that opinion costs real money to hold. Kalshi runs a yes/no contract on which song lands No. 1 on each week's Hot 100, and as of August 13, 2026, Choosin' Texas trades at 99 cents to top the chart on the contract that closes this weekend. Every other song on the board sits at a penny or two. That is not a race; that is a market telling you the race is already over. One quick guardrail before the board: this is the Hot 100, the weekly singles chart, which is a different market with different contracts than the Billboard 200 album chart. Below is the full board, the fine print that actually decides who gets paid, the weekly clock these contracts run on, and then my own call, under my own name.
The Quick Answer
The current Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 is Choosin' Texas, and on Kalshi's KXTOPSONG market it is priced at 99 cents to hold the top spot on next week's chart, the contract that closes August 17. Every other song trades for a penny or two, which is the market's way of saying it does not see a challenger. Below: the full board, how these contracts settle (against the published chart, not streaming numbers), the weekly clock, and where I would and would not put weight.
The Board This Week
These are the live yes bid and yes ask on Kalshi's board for the week-of-August-22 chart, in cents, captured August 13, 2026 and sorted by the bid. Prices move, so treat this as a snapshot, not a fixed line.
| Song | Yes bid | Yes ask | Mid (rough gauge, not a true probability) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Choosin' Texas | 99¢ | $1.00 | ~99.5% |
| Hate That I Made You Love Me | 0¢ | 1¢ | under 1% |
| Every Other Song On The Board | 0¢ | 1–2¢ | under 1% |
The one row worth staring at is not the favorite; it is the entire bottom of the table. More than twenty songs are each parked at a zero bid, with only a penny or two on the ask, and the only non-favorite with even a heartbeat, hate that i made you love me, printed a 3-cent trade before settling back to a penny ask. On a market like this the midpoint of a wide bid-ask spread tells you almost nothing, which is why that last column is a gauge, not a number to lean on. When a board looks like this, the market is not undecided. It is done, and it is charging you 99 cents to agree with it.
A Worked Example: What 99 Cents Actually Pays
Put real numbers on it. Say you buy the Choosin' Texas yes at 99 cents. If it is No. 1 on the published chart for the settlement week, the contract pays $1, so your 99 cents turns into $1.00 — a one-cent profit on 99 cents at risk, or a hair over 1%, which is exactly what a 99-cent price looks like translated into American odds. If it somehow slips to No. 2, the same contract pays $0 and you lose the whole 99 cents. Now flip to the other side of the book. These longshots have no real buyer at all — the bid is zero — so "selling" one really means posting your own offer at a penny or two and waiting for someone to take it. If they do, you collect that penny or two of premium, keep it if the song finishes anywhere but first, and owe the buyer the full $1 if it shocks the chart. Same market, two wildly different shapes of bet. The favorite pays you almost nothing to be right and takes everything if you are wrong; the longshot hands you almost nothing to take on a risk that can cost a hundred times the premium in a single week. That asymmetry, not the name at the top, is the actual lesson of this board — and it is worth understanding before the mechanics of settlement, because it is what makes those mechanics matter.
The takeaway that actually pays: on a lopsided board the favorite pays almost nothing to be right, and the longshot can cost a hundred times its premium to be wrong. Size for that shape, not for the name at the top.
What Actually Settles This Market
Here is the line that decides everyone's money, and it is not the one most people assume. The contract settles against the Billboard Hot 100 that Billboard publishes for the settlement week. It does not settle on Spotify streams, on YouTube plays, or on the first-week numbers that leak on a Tuesday. Whatever song sits at No. 1 on that published chart is the yes; everything else is a no. Kalshi's own rules also note the product is not endorsed by or affiliated with Billboard.
That distinction is the whole reason a market like this can be priced differently than the chatter around it. A song can dominate a streaming service and still finish second on the Hot 100, because Billboard's formula blends streaming, radio airplay, and sales into one number. The contract only cares about the final published rank. If you want the deeper mechanics of how a payout is actually paid, our explainer on what happens when a contract settles walks the full path from close to cash.
The Weekly Clock
Every one of these markets runs on the same fixed rhythm, the same weekly-resolution shape that drives an entertainment market like who gets voted off Big Brother, and it is the single feature that makes this row worth refreshing. Billboard publishes a new Hot 100 every week, so a new question opens every week, and this one is the near-term test: the week-of-August-22 contract closes August 17, only days away. There is no kickoff and no buzzer the way a game has one; the market simply drifts toward the answer as the chart week fills in, then settles when Billboard prints the number. If you want the general rule for how these deadlines are set, we cover when a contract actually closes separately. The practical takeaway: a No. 1 that is true today can be wrong next Monday, which is exactly why a page like this decays instead of expiring.
Why The Penny Longshots Are The Real Trap
If you take nothing else from this board, take the shape of the trade on the other side of that 99-cent favorite. Selling one of these penny longshots looks free: post an offer, pocket a cent or two if it fills, and most weeks you keep it. But that contract pays the buyer $1 if the song shocks the chart, so you are risking most of a dollar to make a penny. Roughly speaking, on a board this lopsided one loss erases the premium from close to a hundred winning weeks. That arithmetic, not the hit rate, is the entire game on a lopsided board like this one, and a red week that wipes out a green stretch is the shape of that strategy working exactly as designed, not a malfunction. It is the same reason a 99-cent yes is not "free money" either: the buyer is risking 99 to make one, and it only takes a single wrong week to feel it.
None of that is a nudge to trade any of it. It is the one piece of market physics a newcomer has to hold before a lopsided board like this looks as simple as it pretends to be. For context on how this compares to a sportsbook, an exchange is not a book, and the difference matters most on markets this one-sided.
⭐ The Columnist's Call
I think Choosin' Texas holds it. I have looked down the whole board and I do not see a song with the streaming and airplay behind it to catch a runaway No. 1 in a single chart week, and the market clearly does not either. The honest read here is that the top of this board is not where a thinking person spends time; the interesting question is whether anything at the bottom is even worth a penny, and my answer this week is no, not one of them. That can change the instant a surprise release lands or a viral moment reshuffles streaming, which is why I will be reading this same board again next Monday rather than assuming today's answer is permanent.
Stokastic trades these event markets and holds positions in them; where we have sold a contract, we were the seller. We do not publish a running scorecard on this page. Treat everything above as commentary on a public market, not a claim about how we have done.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 right now? As of the chart dated August 15, 2026, the No. 1 song is Choosin' Texas, which settled to yes on Kalshi's market for that week. On the market for next week's chart, the one that closes August 17, Choosin' Texas trades at 99 cents to hold the top spot, and every other song sits at a penny or two.
What does a 99-cent price on a song contract mean? Each contract pays $1 if that song is No. 1 on the published Hot 100 for the settlement week and nothing if it is not, so 99 cents reads as the market treating that outcome as all but decided. It does not mean guaranteed — someone is still risking 99 cents to make one.
How does a Billboard Hot 100 market settle? It settles against the Billboard Hot 100 that Billboard publishes for the settlement week, not against streams, YouTube views, or first-week sales. Whatever sits at No. 1 on that published chart is the yes. Kalshi's rules also note the product is not endorsed by or affiliated with Billboard.
Is this the same as the Billboard album chart market? No. This page covers the Hot 100, the weekly singles chart, which crowns one No. 1 song each week. The Billboard 200 album chart is a separate market with separate contracts and a season-long question. Different chart, different money.
Is trading on a music chart market legal? Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange with broad, state-specific availability under federal oversight. You must be 18 or older, availability changes, and these contracts can lose their full value. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any of them.
Watching The Next Chart
A board where one song pays a penny to be right and the rest are hopeless is a hard place to actually do anything with the read. If you would rather point that same read-the-price instinct at markets with real two-way action, our analysts publish free expert picks every day, no account required. The fuller toolkit behind them, fair-price math across every major sportsbook, comes with a free week of OddsShopper Pro to try, and the code TOPSONG20 takes 20% off your first payment of OS Pro or OS Core if you decide to stay.
Kalshi event contracts are CFTC-regulated derivatives, not sportsbook wagers, and they can lose their full value. 18+, with broad, state-specific availability under federal oversight. This page is commentary on a public market, not trading advice; no chart result discussed here is confirmed unless Billboard's published chart says so, and prices move the moment it does.
